Lexington Stakes analyisis

Just two weeks before the big race, and let’s remember some of the great horses that have won this race: Charismatic, Touch Gold, Scrimshaw, Proud Citizen, Hansel, and Risen Star among them.

At first glance, this doesn’t appear to be the strongest field we’ve seen during the TC season.  In fact, I like the ones in the Illinois Derby much better. Eight of the 11 have never raced on the poly, so that could factor. Nonetheless, there is some talent starting with #11 Pure Fun for Kenny McPeak. With Rosie in the saddle and at 7-2 ML, the Pure Prize filly is primed to upset the boys.

With 3 lifetime graded stakes, she’s gone up against some of the better girls, including those in the Bourbonette Oaks (G-III). That was her first race of the year finishing an OK third place. She has a win on this track and she needs this race for the Kentucky Oaks. With Rosie in the saddle, I expect an excellent effort despite the bad post as the jockey is one of the best tuck and rollers in the business.

#7 Examen looks like he’s ready for run after being gelded prior to his first race of 2013. His last race at Santa Anita was outstanding with an 82 Beyer. Consider the short field in that race and the switch to poly here. Proctor gets his 3-year olds ready, so take a look-see.

#6 Sunbean has a lot going for him, including trainer Mike Maker, who gets the colt from Al Staal. Maker is 25% with his take-overs first time out. While this La.-bred hasn’t tried the poly, his work coming in and Stevens aboard make him a candidate. Toss the La. Derby, a nightmare trip.

#2 Pick of the Litter has some quality features, including sire Kitten’s Joy, trainer Romans and jockey Castanon. However, his debut race and Florida Derby efforts were not very good, but he did hit a 95 Beyer in his maiden win and needs to return to that form.

Beyer in his maiden win and needs to return to that form.

#3 Red Rocks is a long shot to consider showing consistent speed in his 4 career starts for Wayne Catalano. Nice work on this track leading in and, at 12-1 ML, could figure somewhere for the Florida bred.

#1 Winning Cause figures to take some money being Pletcher-trained with Leparoux up AND because he is 2 for 2 at this track. I am not sure if the post will be kind as this might set up for one of those “Leparoux comes from the clouds after being 20 lengths out” finishes. Out of Giant’s Causeway, you’d think that he would be a router. However, he looks like he might be better at a mile, but let’s see how Todd and the Frenchman handle him today.

#9 Wings of Fortune is another good Maker horse with Calvin in the saddle and a good under play.

My picks:

This race appears to be begging for a bomber, so I am going with #5 Where’s Dominick at 20-1 ML. He seems suited for the distance and I like the move to blinkers. He’s been working well on a synthetic surface prepping for this. In addition, Dominick has been competitive against good talent, like Mr. Palmer (losing by 4 at 1-1/8 in the $100K Private Term’s) and finishing 2^nd to Dynamic Sky two back. The switch to Prado is positive (although I think Edgar shouldn’t have taken Rydilluc to the lead in the Blue Grass) and trainer Trombetta is a good picker of spots. Dominick is 5/2-1-1 lifetime—all at Laurel—so this would be graduation day with a win.

#5 Where’s Dominick to win and place

#10 exacta key: 15/1,6,7

$5 exacta wheel: 1,6,7/15

$1 tri wheel: 5,7/1,5,6,7/1,2,5,6,7,9,11

Correct my typo picks......should be

$10 exacta key: 5/1,6,7

$5 exacta wheel: 1,6,7/5

$1 tri wheel: 5,7/1,5,6,7/1,2,5,6,7,9,11

Thanks Atlas --GL to you.

Vet....I think you are right on target.

BTW---we got about a 1/4 inch of snow last night. Snowed like crazy for about an hour