Illinois Derby analysis

(Friday night) Well, it’ no longer a Derby prep due to the screwing Hawthorne got by the rat bastards from Churchill Downs Inc., owners of Arlington Park, and I hate that.But, it is a Grade III $750,000 event. It is also sets up to be a prep for the Preakness, so study hard.

Let’s begin with a note about the track surface, which could very much factor into the outcome.

I live in Chicago and, yesterday, we had some of the worst rain storms I have ever seen. The Hawthorne area (Cicero, IL) had at least 5 inches of rain. It’s snowing and sleeting here tonight.

That said, the track grounds crew might be the best in the country with all the weather conditions they face, so my guess is that the surface will be in fine shape.

I will also guess that they will fix the track to not penalize the stalker-closers—the better horses are all out of outside posts-- and to avoid someone stealing the race on the front end. Setting the track to play fair seems to be the track’s pattern for big races at Hawthorne.

While many of this field might not be Derby worthy, this race is as good as or better than the LeComte, Sam Davis and some of the other B level Derby preps. The value in this race should be outstanding and you might see huge exotics paying out.

Let’s start with the ML fave, #13 Departing, at a “say what?” 7-2. Not that the son of War Front isn’t deserved in this field, but he best not bob and weave the way he did in the Louisiana Derby in his lone career loss in 4 starts having finished third behind Derby entrants Revolutionary and MyLute.

Departing’s work coming into this is grand. His work going in is outstanding, he has the services of the solid Brian Hernandez and his trainer, Al Staal, is pound-for-pound one of the best at picking spots. Staal might have maneuvered his way into figuring a way to get Departing into the Derby, but the guy is a sharp one and he must be thinking that his boy is best suited for the Preakness.

The #13 post might give bettors pause, but if the track plays the way I think it will and given that negotiable last turn and longggggg stretch, I am not afraid.

#14 Narvaez might be the best 20-1 odds horse in the entire Triple Crown season for my money. Here are my comments about him going into the Florida Derby:

“Holy Bull colt is a bit under the radar here. I say that because he could sit chilly at mid-pack or so, and then set down for a closing trip. Big improvement last out with Castellano . However, Paco Lopez rides for decent conditioner Bezara….a playable under today.”

Ditto those comments (he finished 4^th to Orb, Itsmyluckyday and Merit Man—compare that bunch to these!). For this race, I think he might be primed for the win. He had a real shot in the FLA Derby, but I think Lopez moved him up too quickly in that one. I expect Paco to keep him near the lead and ready for run at the end. My biggest fear here, though, is that he might not like the Hawthorne dirt, which plays much deeper than Gulfstream, in my opinion.In addition, there will be the 40 degree weather.

#12 Siete de Oros could be the one as well at 5-1 and ready for fight as he has 3 graded races losing in all three by a grand total of 5-and-a-head losing twice to Vyjack, both near misses, and to Revolutionary. The Pennsylvania-bred is piloted by Arroyo who is most capable. He and trainer Preciado are 24% in wins in a whopping 126 starts together. A very, very live one, but my concern is that this is his first trip west of the east with Hawthorne being very foreign territory for some. Nonetheless…………

#9 Show Me Some Magic…. One of my favorite local trainers is Henry Dominguez, who is local to New Mexico. This trainer is the best at Sunland and Zia and he ships as the 2^nd place finisher in the Sunland Derby (Mine That Bird, Daddy Nose Best) losing to Governor Charlie. Look for clues in his 2-year old Saratoga and Churchill Downs races. Mena is in from Kentucky to ride on the track where he made his bones as a young jock. The colt will compete at 6-1.

#8 Abraham…. It’s not an Illinois Derby unless Pletcher has one in the race. He won with Joe Vann last year and with Cowboy Cal in 2005. Abraham is a B player for Todd, but he must see something here because Castellano travels to the Big Windy to ride for him. The Distorted Humor colt is suited for the 1-1/8 miles distance and he looks like a real contender despite his dump in the Sunland Derby where he finished an unimpressive third….in just his third start. I am a bit afraid of his upfront style in a field of stalkers, but he is a good bet for something, if not the win.

#6 Taken by the Storm…..After Kenny McPeek’s stellar weekend last week, I can’t doubt him. At 15-1, the son of Stormy Atlantic is a real play with Alan Garcia in to take the mount. That says a lot. The colt’s last race, the Spiral, was a good one as he finished 3^rd to Black Onyx and Uncaptured losing by just 3-1/4. I like the post, but with a wall of outside horses angling toward the center, he needs to stay centered and avoid being pushed inside, as I will guess the rail area and 2-path will be dead. Garcia is masterful, so I expect him to be most tactical.

#4 For Greater Glory…..This is a nice one for Steve Hobby with Shaun Bridgmohan up. Just a tad below the leaders, but a competitor who can share.

#11 Stormin’ Monarcho might be the best of the locals with Florent Geroux, the best jock here, and trainer Joel Bernt teaming up. They’re 21% wins together, but enter another time zone in this race. The son of Monarchos has one Grade III race, a third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity with a bland 63 Beyer. He does compete (8/2-1-2) with a win and a second in 3 tries on this track. I expect Geroux, who won this race last year on Pletcher’s Joe Vann, to have him ready for run near the end. A must-consider as an under at 15-1 and, if it gets dicey around the final turn, you could see a major upset.

#10 Fordubai….Does the name Jim Tafel ring a bell? He was owner of Street Sense, the 2007 Kentucky Derby champ, and one of the very best Illinois-based horse owners. This son of EDubai has done a lot of good things for trainer Greg Geier with a record of 4/2-1-0 with a win and a place in 2 races at Hawthorne. At 20-1, he’s worth a look for exotics with the services of Diego Sanchez, who is one of the best here at revving them up in the stretch.

My Picks

I cannot believe how tough this race is to pick a winner, but I will take a shot on the 5-1 #12 Siete de Oros to win and place hoping he takes to the surface and can get out staying close. While I don’t think I have ever picked a Pennsylvania bred to win a big race, here is my reasoning...…he ran with Vyjack in both the Gotham and the Jerome, for starters. He comes out of Aqueduct, which has some of the bullring characteristics of Hawthorne. I like the very steady work leading to this race AND Arroyo has both of his career wins.

That doesn’t mean that there aren’t others to consider for win.

$16 exacta key: 12/6,8,13,14

$10 exacta key: 8,13,14/12

$5 exacta wheel: 13/12

$4 exacta wheel: 13/6,8,14

$2 tri wheel: 12,13/6,8,12,13,14/4,6,8,10,11,12,13,14

Good luck, Vet.

I think the reason why Hawthorne doesn't go until the day AP opens (and the reverse in the fall when they leave AP) is that most of the horsemen needs a week to get their horses settled, start workouts on the AP track and get their barns in order.

There was a time when tracks that also had harness would vacate th about 2 weeks in between so they could set up the harness surface.