Keeneland - 4/18

this is super early i realize that.  this horse could scratch as could any of them.  two drills since her last plus shipping and the temp in Lexington should be in the low 80's with some wind so expecting dry/firm turf - so no weather reason to scratch and she appears well intended.  if she scratches i pass the race.

race 8

6 WP

10/1 ml.  recency, pace, pattern, stamina.  i see this as a race where the pace should not be too hot for this horse to handle and there may be one or two horses in front of her (very likely the 8) . . . . . but a race where nobody appears to have explosive late speed relative to the field.  perhaps an opportunity to stalk and pounce and not get gobbled up.  like the recency where she ran her best race last out with new high fig, follows it with two drills, then ships in to considerably move up in class.  also note from her last she looked terrible early in the lane bouncing all over and tightened herself up and finished well.  pattern:  like the rising figs, like how all three of her races on firm turf were productive ("shifted 4wd, improved", "bid 3 wide, cleared", and "responded well, held"), like he she perked up when adding the shades last race, like how she wired the field last time but also passed horses in her first two races, and like the drills maintaining their pattern and move up in class off the win.  pace: main premise is i think in this particular scenario against this field she can sit close and be well within herself and then when they turn for home still have good energy left to try and sprint home for the wire.  stamina: twice around two turns on firm turf winning at this distance showing good life and energy late in the race (there are a few others here that will struggle late in this race).  in my humble view - the jock should break her right over to the rail, sit behind the 8, and then cross his fingers at the top of the lane and go all in and pray she hits the wire first.  i'll give her a shot.  0.75 units.       

warning:  jock is 0/23 at Keeneland this spring.

warning: trainers stats suck in all categories.  new guy trying to break in. 

obviously the whole world can see the 4 will be the fav.  she ran a solid 2nd in the BC Juvey Filly Turf and has brown/castellano attached to her.  she has a layoff to deal with and may need more ground to cover.  if she's too damn good then so be it. 

feel comfortable tossing the 1, 8, 9, and 10 and fading the 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7.  aside from the 4 the 2 concerns me the most though in her last i think a favorbale pace setup made her possibly look better than she is but we shall see tomorrow.  not sure 5 has enough of a late punch going out a full mile.  3 is a wild card she's been terrible recently but could possibly wake up on the lawn.  7 is iffy to me not sure if she has enough late zip to get up here.  i expect the 8 to be nailed down the lane and possibly at the top of the lane.