Blue Grass Stakes analysis

A number of polytrack experienced runners in this race among a very competitive field. I have always found the Keeneland poly to a bit more true than other similar surfaces, so this race should set up well for an exciting finish…. And a good betting race!

The one to watch, if you’re playing the poly angle, is #7 Uncaptured, a Lion Heart colt that is 6/4-1-0 on the surface, including a very game 2^nd in the Spiral Stakes at TP. The Ontario-bred is trained by sharpie Mark Casse with local Mena in the saddle at 7-2 ML. Unlike others out of the sire, I think this one can get this distance. However, take note that his two graded stakes wins were on the dirt, not the poly of Woodbine, his home track, or Turfway.

#1 Dynamic Sky…..He hung in the TB Derby and just couldn’t keep up with Falling Sky (see Ark. Derby notes) in the Davis, but he is 3/1-1-1 on syn, including a 2^nd place finish out by one-L in the Breeders’ Futurity as a 2-year old. This is another Mark Casse runner (Ontario) with Rosario on top.

#3 Undrafted……Keep an eye on this Mott colt out of prolific Purim, who is 6/2-0-4 career with 2/1-0-1 on poly with his maiden win on this track. He’s never finished below 3^rd place. That said, he’s come just below leaders in his 2 graded stakes, but was game in both. His sire breeds for the distance and that might be his salvation today. A must-consider for exotics, if not for a long-odds win.

#4 Java’s War….Highly touted by some for his second place finish to Verrazano in the TB Derby and, I think, mostly deserved. He also finished just ahead of Falling Sky in that race, but has lost to Uncaptured, Frac Daddy, who will be a big longshot in the Ark. Derby, and Dynamic Sky, who might contend for a piece in this one. He has a 3^rd place finish at Keeneland in the BC Futurity (G-1) losing by just a length after being bumped. His TB performance was off layoff and the improvement was impressive. He just might have rounded into top 3-year old form, so take a close look.

#13 Rydilluc…..If this guy doesn’t draw the horrific post, he might have been the fave in this race….and still might draw favoritism. Nonetheless, he’s 4-1 ML, and why not with 3 wins in 4 starts? While his future is likely on the turf, the transfer to poly just might work for him today. If he gets a ride from Prado, you might see him grab the win.

#11 West Hills Giant (NY)….Maybe I’m too generous, but I can’t see how Battaglia made this son of Frost Giant (Giant’s Causeway) 20-1 on the ML….15-1? 12-1 maybe? Granted, he might not be an upper echelon colt, but he ran an OK second to Vyjack in the Gotham (89 Beyer). The post stinks, but he’s seemingly in form with blinkers help and decent work coming in. Tri’s and Supers?

#2 My Name is Michael……A decent poly-runner (5/1-1-1) for Mott and very bland in the Spiral. However, he’s had some problems with illness and other issues and I think you’ll get a price for your exotics, so maybe take a shot.

#5 Palace Malice….He’s found a lot of trouble in the LA Derby and Risen Star, but he might get bet at 5-1 or less because of the Todd and Gomez combo. I, personally, will not take the win bait.

#8 Charming Kitten…..In a race that is looking for the unusual to win, this guy might be it. However, note that Pletcher is 3 for 27 in graded stakes when transferring from grass to poly. That’s enough for me to stay away along with just one graded race (2^nd to Rydilluc in the Palm Beach) with no substantial improvement during his 3-year old year.

My picks:

While this race seems to be begging for a bomber to win (#9 Tesseron, #2 My Name is Michael, #6 Channel Island come to mind), I am going to “guess?” at #13 Rydilluc to win and place….with a ton of “IF’s” thrown in, including IF Edgar overcomes the crappy-post; IF he gets the break, rates and flies at the end.

$10 exacta key: 13/3,4,7

$5 exacta key: 13/2,4,9

$1 tri wheel: 13/3,4,7/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,12

VET...I, too, am a Chad Brown fan. But for some reason, this horse just doesn't seem right to me based on both his Spiral and his OK, but not mind-blowing works.

The other stat that got me was Brown being 0 for 14 on the sytnthetic and with this guy being a turfer and crapping the bed on the TP poly, I chose to pass.