I would have loved to see the injured Hear the Ghost in this race, but not in the cards today. There is a lot of talent here led by #1 Flashback, #3 Power Broker, #4 Tiz a Minister, #5 Goldencents and #6 Super Ninety-Nine.
The undercard ain’t bad either with Power Broker, Summer Exclusive and Storm Fighter primed for the upset.
Let’s start with Baffert’s #1 Flashback, a Tapit colt who got caught by Hear the Ghost in the San Felipe. At 6-5 ML, he’s the fave, but he is going to have to work to win. Flashback should go out front, but Super Nintety-Nine, Goldencents and, maybe, Summer Exclusive will go with him…..someone needs to do so; otherwise it might be lights out.
#4 Tiz a Minsiter could be the beneficiary of a fast pace as the stretch to 1-1/8 suits his style in a stalk-close mode. Talamo is up for Paul Aguirre with a colt that is 10/2-4-2 lifetime with a win here. I am not sold on Talamo, who was switched over from Garret Gomez. I do like his chances for the upset much the way Hear the Ghost won in the SF.
#5 Goldencents is going to be tough if he can hold near the lead and factor at the end. I’m not sure if the pace will hinder his close, but aside from a soft fade in the SF after being pulled a bit, he looks to have the capability to be there. Jockey Krigger has found new life. O’Neill trains.
#6 Super Ninety-Nine has lifetime Beyer highs of 102 at Oak Lawn (SW Stakes win) and 100 on this track. That says a lot, but can he hold the speed in this field? It will be a tough task, but never doubt Baffert and Garcia as a duo on this track where they are 26% in wins together in 179 outings at Santa Anita. Based on his Rebel finish and clues from previous races, 1-1/8 at a pace might be too much; still very much in it at 5-2 ML.
#3 Power Broker is another Baffet charge with Bejarano in the saddle. Pound-for-pound, this might be Baffert’s best 3-year old in the long-run; he’s has been on layoff since finishing 5th in the BC Juve last November. Note 90 Beyer as a 2-year old. His work leading to this has been stellar with the trainer-jock connection nailing down 29% in wins at SA the last year. Proceed with caution as the distance might be a bit much off the layoff, but he looks very good.
#8 Storm Fighter looks to be improving and could figure for a piece of a win.
#7 Summer Exclusive is one I wish had more than one race under his belt as seems to have a bright future.
I am not sure if this will be a good betting race, so I’ll go light.
Based on the expected pace, I am going with #4 Tiz a Minister to win and place. Some cappers say that the pace in the SF set it up for a win, but Hera the Ghost was a monster that day, so I will dismiss.
$10 ex key: 4/1,5,6
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