Posted:
#1
just one today. nine horse field in a decent G3 there might be an opportunity for some value here.
race 10
5 WP
8/1 ml. recency, late speed, pace, stamina. i see the 2, 6, 8, and 10 potentially engaging in a pace battle here and all of them are capable of falling apart late or getting nipped in the last sixteenth at this distance of 6.5F. 9 could run them all down from a handful of lengths back IF she popped back to one of her best performances (and trainer has solid numbers 2nd off the bench). 5 could sit a stalk and pounce trip if Castellano looks at this the way i am (fwiw I liked the 3 before scratches). i like the race off the bench going a one turn mile running a 91 with solid pace and stamina well beyond 6.5f. like the race three back running huge at 7/8ths (yes against a crap field). like the sustained pace twice at a one turn mile (1/13 at GP and 6/11 at CD) and once around two turns (3/12 at AQ). like the three light drills since the last keeping her fresh and lively. if the early sizzle gets leg weary late she could sit a little back and still have the gas in the tank late to accelerate cutting back to this distance. only ten spins as a new 5YO she could potentially improve 2nd off the bench here. worth a dabble to me with this potential setup and value. 0.75 units.
good luck
race 10
5 WP
8/1 ml. recency, late speed, pace, stamina. i see the 2, 6, 8, and 10 potentially engaging in a pace battle here and all of them are capable of falling apart late or getting nipped in the last sixteenth at this distance of 6.5F. 9 could run them all down from a handful of lengths back IF she popped back to one of her best performances (and trainer has solid numbers 2nd off the bench). 5 could sit a stalk and pounce trip if Castellano looks at this the way i am (fwiw I liked the 3 before scratches). i like the race off the bench going a one turn mile running a 91 with solid pace and stamina well beyond 6.5f. like the race three back running huge at 7/8ths (yes against a crap field). like the sustained pace twice at a one turn mile (1/13 at GP and 6/11 at CD) and once around two turns (3/12 at AQ). like the three light drills since the last keeping her fresh and lively. if the early sizzle gets leg weary late she could sit a little back and still have the gas in the tank late to accelerate cutting back to this distance. only ten spins as a new 5YO she could potentially improve 2nd off the bench here. worth a dabble to me with this potential setup and value. 0.75 units.
good luck
0
GL
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