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[Horse Racing] Topic: Saratoga Race Course - 9/1 |
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atlasshrugged |
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#1 Posted: 9/1/2012 11:45:47 AM
race 5
3 WPS
12/1 ml. bombs away to start out. late speed, stamina. should be some zip out front i am taking a shot this guy can make some noise late. the ones with early speed don't finish strongly with consistency and they can be nailed late.
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atlasshrugged |
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#2 Posted: 9/1/2012 11:47:28 AM
6 WPS
6/1 ml odds. recency (drills/fitness), trainer, breeding. thinking the 2 and 7 are way overbet and beatable. like the long set of consistent spins in the morning with the pace picking up three back followed by some maintenance. 6/1 worth it for me
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atlasshrugged |
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#3 Posted: 9/1/2012 11:49:48 AM
Pick 3
1
3 6 7
3 5 7
$20 play costs you $180.
yes the 1 can lose race 8. i am fading the 5 and it just seems more plausible to me the 1 takes it at short odds in today's race under today's circumstances.
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atlasshrugged |
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#4 Posted: 9/1/2012 11:56:31 AM
6 WPS
9/2 ml. prolly bet more with Shack out. speed, pace, pattern. i actually hate this horse and think he is very overrated. BUT, today's race may set up nicely for him. he's a wimpy POS when he gets pressured but he should be able to sit comfortably just off the early zip here and put a run in down the lane. gotta hold off jackson (if he fires), caixa, and the cheating dutrow's wildcard
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atlasshrugged |
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#5 Posted: 9/1/2012 12:07:42 PM
5 WPS
5/1 ml. maybe his odds drift up because his recency sucks behind. this one takes me out of my comfort zone as i hate this horse as well. however, this race has a few horses that like to tussle up front and this guy is capable of putting in a big late move at this distance. castellano ain't no dummy so hopefully he times it right. looks like he perked up a little bit in his training recently.
everyone will drool over Mucho and To Honor. I think both are very beatable and vulnerable late going around two turns at this level of competition. although this is a terrible Woodward ha GZ would jog around these and take them easily wire to wire by five or six lengths with minimal effort.
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atlasshrugged |
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#6 Posted: 9/1/2012 12:14:18 PM
10 WP
7/2 ml. speed, speed, speed, pace, pattern. not going to over-think it. if he fires he is the fastest horse in the race. full field he'll have to gun it from the outside which should actually help him. like how solid turf trainer sends him right back out onto the lawn after he kept him in his debut that was washed off the lawn. makes me think he thinks he'll be better on the green stuff. beat twelve other stiffs in the debut so you should know by the quarter pole if he's a winner or going to eat garbage.
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atlasshrugged |
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#7 Posted: 9/1/2012 12:16:36 PM
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mstrH |
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#8 Posted: 9/1/2012 1:15:03 PM  |
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atlasshrugged |
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#9 Posted: 9/1/2012 1:36:55 PM  
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spliquid |
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#10 Posted: 9/1/2012 1:54:06 PM |
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MRPRISTINE |
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#11 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:12:25 PM |
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atlasshrugged |
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#12 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:13:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
a couple stabs this weekend and then that's it until real racing resumes with Keeneland, The Great Race Place, and Belmont on BC prep weekend. 0.25/0.25/0.50 plays unless noted only WP.
race 5
3 WPS
12/1 ml. bombs away to start out. late speed, stamina. should be some zip out front i am taking a shot this guy can make some noise late. the ones with early speed don't finish strongly with consistency and they can be nailed late.
3rd at 6/1. damn they bet him down. watched the replay almost threw up. just missed by a length and i gotta say he did exactly what i was hoping for he was rolling late. damn chalkie (who i told splid i was on originally until i decided i couldn't trust him) held on late the son of a girl.
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atlasshrugged |
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#13 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:17:40 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 7
6 WPS
6/1 ml odds. recency (drills/fitness), trainer, breeding. thinking the 2 and 7 are way overbet and beatable. like the long set of consistent spins in the morning with the pace picking up three back followed by some maintenance. 6/1 worth it for me
saratoga 
5/1 winner
horse destroyed the two favs the 2 and the 7. i count 8 consecutive drills at The Spa for this colt all either six or seven days apart and I also see progress being made leading up to that drill on 8/13 that was the fastest of 46 out of the gate going 5F. after that some easy maintenance. family tree was decent and daddy is 11% in the debut. pletch 27% first out so add it up and 6/1 works for me.
7 got a decent fig but only because he clunked up in his debut i don;t think he ran that well. the 2 was such a ridiculously easy fade but yet they hammered him to 6/5 because he beyered 83 in his debut. red flags:
- debut at 4.5 furlongs which is a little garbage, bullshit race and distance
- layoff
- drills in July were spaced out too much and then not another drill until august 23rd.
now you think he can win a race at The Spa at 7F when clearly there may be issues with his fitness?
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#14 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:18:34 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by MRPRISTINE:
GREAT PICK ON THE #6 IN RACE 7. I PLAYED IT AND HIT THE TRI ALSO NICE.
Nice. hopefully Data Link fires here and gets me off in this P3.
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#15 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:21:35 PM
- look closely at the running line. in 3rd a length and half back at the furlong pole and finished 2nd a length a half back. that is called running "evenly late" he didn't fall back and he damn sure didn't accelerate to the wire (lack of late speed). and they all thought he would run well going from 4.5F to 7F.
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spliquid |
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#16 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:23:22 PM |
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atlasshrugged |
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#17 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:43:38 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 8
Pick 3
1
3 6 7
3 5 7
$20 play costs you $180.
yes the 1 can lose race 8. i am fading the 5 and it just seems more plausible to me the 1 takes it at short odds in today's race under today's circumstances.
damn 2nd.
pick 3 
gonna put together another one will post in a few.
yet another graded stakes winner on turf for Smart Strike.
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drew32 |
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#18 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:45:54 PM
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drew32 |
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#19 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:49:39 PM
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atlasshrugged |
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#20 Posted: 9/1/2012 4:56:42 PM
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atlasshrugged |
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#21 Posted: 9/1/2012 5:00:41 PM
pick 3
3 6 7
3 5 7
10
no changes my original horses anyways. considered tossing dutrow here in race 9 but if it falls apart i like the 3 and 7 a little bit.
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atlasshrugged |
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#22 Posted: 9/1/2012 5:01:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by drew32: Also, are you going to capping Del Mar today? They are getting underway here shortly.
not likely.
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Kurshka |
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#23 Posted: 9/1/2012 5:08:36 PM |
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atlasshrugged |
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#24 Posted: 9/1/2012 5:12:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:
race 9
6 WPS
9/2 ml. prolly bet more with Shack out. speed, pace, pattern. i actually hate this horse and think he is very overrated. BUT, today's race may set up nicely for him. he's a wimpy POS when he gets pressured but he should be able to sit comfortably just off the early zip here and put a run in down the lane. gotta hold off jackson (if he fires), caixa, and the cheating dutrow's wildcard
just cancelled this bet.
race 9
7 WPS
can't take that price on emcee and he is washing out
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#25 Posted: 9/1/2012 5:12:59 PM 
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