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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: dullahan work
angrybarber send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.com |
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#26
Posted: 6/4/2012 8:00:56 PM
Go and go won the laurel futurity in 1989.

UL i hear ya but honestly i just flat out dont think Dullahan is a better horse then IHA or UR. I cant bet a horse to win a race like the belmont when hes never won on dirt. If he beats then he beats me but i gotta stick to what i believe
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#27
Posted: 6/4/2012 9:00:23 PM

I'm with you AB.

I'll be playing against Dull-ahan in the head to head matchups as well.

I'll post on this tomorrow, but with the defection of Hansen from the Woody Stephens (there are rumors that he was sick going back to the Bluegrass), the Bluegrass is fast becoming one of the worst subsequent races by participants in modern major Derby stakes races. Not one stakes winner. In fact only one horse post-Blue won a race, an allowance sore.

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#28
Posted: 6/4/2012 9:23:17 PM
but djbrow what does past history has to do with the way this horse is training and the way he is coming into this race...was it secretariat;s fault that no one esle could run with him but sham when he won the triple crown...pincay and sham did try in the first two legs and i think sham beat him has a 2 year old...onion beat him later in his career..all dullahan can do is run with this crop of 3 year olds ...he won on the polytrack and beat 16 other horses on derby day with a jockey that might of misjudged the pace...you can bet one thing JV  will have him in position and will not misjudged the pace...dullahan may get out run but it will have nothing to do with the rider this time....NO EXCUSES.......
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#29
Posted: 6/4/2012 10:08:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

grey you know whats funny, i feel like by you posting that you think im gonna back off my previous statement. and your acting like im some sort of clueless jackass that doesnt know what im talking about. not only will i not back off of it but i support it right now as much as i did that day.

since when is 3rd place close to winning??????


 

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#30
Posted: 6/4/2012 11:33:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

I have been anti-Dull-ahan from the start and why stop now, right?

I simply see him as the latest version of Stately Victor or Make Music for Me....horses that did well in the Bluegrass, showed flashes in the Derby, were 'wiseguy' plays for the Belmont, only to fail to do anything.

The more I look at his resume, the more I am reminded that it isn't that he can't race on dirt, rather it is who has he beaten...on dirt of anywhere else.

Holy Candy, a horse that ran well in the Bluegrass, failed to mount a challenge in the Affirmed yesterday, becoming the latest Bluegrass entrant to fail to impress in the subsequent start.

Until I see Bluegrass placement horses perform in the TC races, I will play against.



Fantastic COMMENTS that are ultra important in finding WINNERS

Observing how the competition has fared  and performed since a specific race in and comparing their results since CAN BE    very critical  and IMPORTANT in future contests. Especially when a certain race produces MULTIPLE winners next time out

DJ, i must agree Dull doesn't get win but should be a MUST PLAY for 2nd,, 3rd or 4th. Or 5th if Belmont offers HIGH 5
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#31
Posted: 6/5/2012 12:25:39 AM
IMO, and just my opinion, a horse running a bullet half mile in 45 and whatever is not a Belmont contender. What this work tells me is that Romans is petrified of being too far off the pace and sharpened him to be much closer. But isn't that taking away this horses biggest weapon, to make one run from off the pace? Castellano can compare him to Ghostzapper all he wants, for all we know he sees the horse as a superior grass runner and wants to retain the mount past this race. Dullahan couldn't be a pony in the post parade for the great Zap.


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#32
Posted: 6/5/2012 12:40:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:



Let me just change that sentence to

"I definitely DO NOT agree with the people who continue to claim Dullahan can't run on dirt."


I don't like the way that came out the first time.   A little to "know it all" ish.     



I am not going back to look but I'm sure a lot of people who will back Dullahan are the same people backing Went the Day Well in the Preakness. Went the day well ran a better derby then dullahan and was about to blow right by him if they had any extra distance. Dullahan had a bullet workout yeah but what does that mean? He is a synthetic/turf horse who ran a decent derby over a dirt track that plays favorable to turf horses. Plus horses usually run their best dirt race first off the synthetic. It looks like we could have a slow pace here.

Dullahans work was impressive but he will not be on my win ticket on Saturday. Especially considering he could be second choice.
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#33
Posted: 6/5/2012 1:06:36 AM
And Welsch clearly said he is a horse that moves like a Turf horse when he saw him at Churchill....
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#34
Posted: 6/5/2012 9:40:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:



Dullahan had a bullet workout yeah but what does that mean? He is a synthetic/turf horse who ran a decent derby over a dirt track that plays favorable to turf horses. 




This stuff about the Churchill dirt being "favorable to grass horses",  where was this BEFORE the Derby?   I looked back at the Kentucky Derby threads and I didn't see one of you saying that BEFORE the race.    Then after Dullahan ran well, you guys start spewing that all over the site the next week.    If you really thought that the Churchill dirt favored turf horses and you consider Dullahan a turf horse then why were all of you tossing him out?   

And there was other horses in the race that had turf form.   Most notably the most hyped horse of the week, Daddy Nose Best, who Welsch was touting all week as ready to run a big one.    He had 6 races on turf and 2 wins and ran in two graded stakes on turf and wasn't that far behind.   How come Daddy Nose Best didn't benefit from this supposed "turf horse favoring dirt track at Churchill"

Daddy Long Legs is another one who had ran well on turf and tapeta which turf horses love.  All I heard all week is that he's not a dirt horse and has no chance.   Not a soul said he's a turf horse who might benefit from the "turf horse favoring dirt track at Churchill"


Show me a post by anybody BEFORE the Derby that said that "Churchill was a dirt track that plays favorably to turf horses".   

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#35
Posted: 6/5/2012 10:11:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

I'm with you AB.

I'll be playing against Dull-ahan in the head to head matchups as well.

I'll post on this tomorrow, but with the defection of Hansen from the Woody Stephens (there are rumors that he was sick going back to the Bluegrass), the Bluegrass is fast becoming one of the worst subsequent races by participants in modern major Derby stakes races. Not one stakes winner. In fact only one horse post-Blue won a race, an allowance sore.



You do realize that Dullahan has ran another race since the Bluegrass right?     

Before the Derby they were saying that this years Derby was one of the best fields of 3 yr olds ever assembled weren't they?   Dullahan was 1.75 lengths from beating every one of them and it was on dirt.


So why are you so obsessed with the field in the Bluegrass.   In my mind the Bluegrass doesn't matter that much anymore.   

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#36
Posted: 6/5/2012 10:31:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:

Dangerous horse man.   




By the way, when I said "dangerous horse" I meant he's got a great chance of winning the Belmont.  

I didn't mean he was dangerous to bet on or anything like that.

Probably wasn't the right choice of words there.  

However, I haven't picked anybody to win this race yet.   It's just a discussion.   I know a lot of you get confused about that.   Somebody starts talking positively about a horse and you think they are picking it to win the race. 


   <----   That's I'll Have Another 

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#37
Posted: 6/5/2012 10:51:32 AM
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Originally Posted by UL-LAFAYETTEKID:

but djbrow what does past history has to do with the way this horse is training and the way he is coming into this race...was it secretariat;s fault that no one esle could run with him but sham when he won the triple crown...pincay and sham did try in the first two legs and i think sham beat him has a 2 year old...onion beat him later in his career..all dullahan can do is run with this crop of 3 year olds ...he won on the polytrack and beat 16 other horses on derby day with a jockey that might of misjudged the pace...you can bet one thing JV  will have him in position and will not misjudged the pace...dullahan may get out run but it will have nothing to do with the rider this time....NO EXCUSES.......

I rewatched the Derby and focused on Dull. I am not sure what failed jockey move I see. Had he moved earlier and expended energy, whose to say he would have made up the same ground in the stretch?

I will address the past history in my next post, but in rewatching the Derby and looking at the chart, I'll Have Another, IMO, ran a tougher race. He made up 13 lengths of his post into the lightning quarter yet still had horse in the stretch. Now watch the Preakness again. After the finish, he galloped out and was making ground on the field. This is giviing me more and more confidence in his ability to make 12 furlongs.

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#38
Posted: 6/5/2012 11:08:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:



I am not going back to look but I'm sure a lot of people who will back Dullahan are the same people backing Went the Day Well in the Preakness. Went the day well ran a better derby then dullahan and was about to blow right by him if they had any extra distance. 




Went The Day Well had 2 weeks off before the Preakness.   Very possible he bounced.  

When the Belmont is run , Dullahan will have been off 5 weeks since his Derby run.       

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#39
Posted: 6/5/2012 11:14:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:



You do realize that Dullahan has ran another race since the Bluegrass right?     

Before the Derby they were saying that this years Derby was one of the best fields of 3 yr olds ever assembled weren't they?   Dullahan was 1.75 lengths from beating every one of them and it was on dirt.


So why are you so obsessed with the field in the Bluegrass.   In my mind the Bluegrass doesn't matter that much anymore.   

I made this point before the Derby. Look at the Bluegrass winners for the last 15 years. It is a list of 'never heard from agains." I think the only horse with his name called in any TC race before this year is Sinister Minister who took the lead in 2006 before Barbaro blew them away.

My theory is we overvalue the Bluegrass winners. 1) They are weaker fields because owners prefer the Florida, Arkansas, Santa Anita Derbys, and Wood. Thus the winners tend to not face as much competition. 2) It is a late prep; one of the last. People tend to pay attention to what they see late. 3) The surface makes it a closer's paradise and horseplayers love closers in the Derby and Belmont.

Now, was this year's Bluegrass any different? Since the race,in order of finishing, Hansen was 9th in the Derby and rumors persist that he has been sick for months, the 3rd place horse, Gung Ho, finishes 7th as a favorite his next start. Howe Great finished 3rd, Prospective 18th, Heavy Breathing, 3rd in an allowance, Midnight Crooner won an allowance, Scatman, Ever So Lucky, Russian Greek, and PoliticallyCorrect haven't run and Hero of Order, 5th and 8th.

Given all this, I conclude that Dullahan beat nothing in the Bluegrass so I look to his other races. Who has he beat in any race? Optimizer? Majestic City?

Yes, he finished 3rd in the Derby. I am always somewhat cautious of using this to advopcate for Belmont momentum. The Derby, especially this year, sees a multiple horse meltdown in the final two furlongs as tired horses make closers appear to look like Secretariat. Yes, Dullahan was firing, but was it a result of the insane early pace (that IHA was much more part of) and horses going backward or a result of a star horse? Until I see something that shows me the latter, I'll go with the former and view him as more of an Ice Box than a Birdstone.

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#40
Posted: 6/5/2012 11:24:10 AM

I figured it would take someone from Looziana to get this forum fired up.  I'm probably in the minority-it doesn't bother me, I voted for McGovern- but I'm giving the race to the next Triple Crown winner and my drinking philosophy I'll Have Another.

Therefore, all of my bets will be exotics or multi-race wagers.  Which is where all you my Covers brothers come in.  I'll be waiting with baited breath for your pick-4 or pick-6 recommendations from the undercard.  Any help is appreciated.  Good luck to all and don't bet the Cubs on the road, Mikey.

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#41
Posted: 6/5/2012 11:35:34 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

I made this point before the Derby. Look at the Bluegrass winners for the last 15 years. It is a list of 'never heard from agains." I think the only horse with his name called in any TC race before this year is Sinister Minister who took the lead in 2006 before Barbaro blew them away.

My theory is we overvalue the Bluegrass winners. 1) They are weaker fields because owners prefer the Florida, Arkansas, Santa Anita Derbys, and Wood. Thus the winners tend to not face as much competition. 2) It is a late prep; one of the last. People tend to pay attention to what they see late. 3) The surface makes it a closer's paradise and horseplayers love closers in the Derby and Belmont.

Now, was this year's Bluegrass any different? Since the race,in order of finishing, Hansen was 9th in the Derby and rumors persist that he has been sick for months, the 3rd place horse, Gung Ho, finishes 7th as a favorite his next start. Howe Great finished 3rd, Prospective 18th, Heavy Breathing, 3rd in an allowance, Midnight Crooner won an allowance, Scatman, Ever So Lucky, Russian Greek, and PoliticallyCorrect haven't run and Hero of Order, 5th and 8th.

Given all this, I conclude that Dullahan beat nothing in the Bluegrass so I look to his other races. Who has he beat in any race? Optimizer? Majestic City?

Yes, he finished 3rd in the Derby. I am always somewhat cautious of using this to advopcate for Belmont momentum. The Derby, especially this year, sees a multiple horse meltdown in the final two furlongs as tired horses make closers appear to look like Secretariat. Yes, Dullahan was firing, but was it a result of the insane early pace (that IHA was much more part of) and horses going backward or a result of a star horse? Until I see something that shows me the latter, I'll go with the former and view him as more of an Ice Box than a Birdstone.



dj - i see exactly what you are saying here.  i also agree that the Blue Grass is kind of an oddball with the timing and now with polyfluff.  however, I've always found Keeneland to be extremely competitive with big, full fields.  that said, yes the Blue Grass gets a wide variety of entries with different flavors (turf, crazy longshots, poly, dirt, etc.). 

i just see playing the game of "this horse beat that horse" or "this horse did not beat these horses" can be dangerous.  it seems like for every angle that supports oneself there is another to go the other way.  who did IHA beat in the Robert Lewis?  Nada.  Zilch.  Nobody.  The tote board tells you IHA still had plenty of doubters up to and including the Preakness.  Yet here he is with a very legit shot at the TC. 

i've always found it a bit dicey to rely too much on the horses that were or were not in the field in previous races (not saying you are using this too much).  seems like it has helped me and burned me equally so a tough one for me.  anyways, good luck on Saturday.   
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#42
Posted: 6/5/2012 11:49:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:



dj - i see exactly what you are saying here.  i also agree that the Blue Grass is kind of an oddball with the timing and now with polyfluff.  however, I've always found Keeneland to be extremely competitive with big, full fields.  that said, yes the Blue Grass gets a wide variety of entries with different flavors (turf, crazy longshots, poly, dirt, etc.). 

i just see playing the game of "this horse beat that horse" or "this horse did not beat these horses" can be dangerous.  it seems like for every angle that supports oneself there is another to go the other way.  who did IHA beat in the Robert Lewis?  Nada.  Zilch.  Nobody.  The tote board tells you IHA still had plenty of doubters up to and including the Preakness.  Yet here he is with a very legit shot at the TC. 

i've always found it a bit dicey to rely too much on the horses that were or were not in the field in previous races (not saying you are using this too much).  seems like it has helped me and burned me equally so a tough one for me.  anyways, good luck on Saturday.   


Paynter will give us a great example of class handicapping and comparing who beat who previously.  He competed in a G1 but did not win.  he competed in the Derby Trial (a G3) and got nipped late.  he beat nobody in his maiden win.  He crushed a bunch of complete bums in his last race and oh by the way he was ten cents on the dollar as the chalkie.

But, everyone is gaga because they see his speed figs move higher, Baffert, and the Awesome Again/Tiznow bloodlines.  Hell, he might continue to move way up and run off with this thing.  How the hell would I know.  He also might flop.  There's just so much potential variance especially with 2YO and 3YO. 
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#43
Posted: 6/5/2012 11:57:36 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:



dj - i see exactly what you are saying here.  i also agree that the Blue Grass is kind of an oddball with the timing and now with polyfluff.  however, I've always found Keeneland to be extremely competitive with big, full fields.  that said, yes the Blue Grass gets a wide variety of entries with different flavors (turf, crazy longshots, poly, dirt, etc.). 

i just see playing the game of "this horse beat that horse" or "this horse did not beat these horses" can be dangerous.  it seems like for every angle that supports oneself there is another to go the other way.  who did IHA beat in the Robert Lewis?  Nada.  Zilch.  Nobody.  The tote board tells you IHA still had plenty of doubters up to and including the Preakness.  Yet here he is with a very legit shot at the TC. 

i've always found it a bit dicey to rely too much on the horses that were or were not in the field in previous races (not saying you are using this too much).  seems like it has helped me and burned me equally so a tough one for me.  anyways, good luck on Saturday.   

Oh, I absolutely love the Keeneland meet. I remember an Allowance race two years ago in the fall that featured 4 stakes winners, including Hull, who won the Derby trial.

I just think the Bluegrass has not attracted the top quality fields. It really isn't about who beat who, but rather, now that we have been able to look back at the race, how is it in retrospect.

As for IHA, I agree that the Robert Lewis didn't say much, although Liason just ran 2nd in the Affirmed, but we also knew, before the Derby, that he beat Creative Cause and that CA horses were legit, as evidenced by Bodemiester going East and demolishing the field.

IHA should have had doubters although I was surprised by 19-1. We all do use the comparative horse game, both to play on and play against. There really aren't any right or wrong opinions in this game, just angles. My angle is against a horse that has little to show on paper except a win in a race without historical or current significance and 3rd a horse pace meltdown.

Come Sat. at 6:30 I will be a genious or an idiot...until the next race where I will be the opposite.

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#44
Posted: 6/5/2012 12:54:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

Come Sat. at 6:30 I will be a genious or an idiot...until the next race where I will be the opposite. 




Can't be a genius or an idiot unless you post your picks, which I haven't seen you do in years probably.    


So make sure we all know who your pick is on Saturday morning, OK Mr Horse Racing Forum Mod?       

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#45
Posted: 6/5/2012 1:00:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:




Can't be a genius or an idiot unless you post your picks, which I haven't seen you do in years probably.    


So make sure we all know who your pick is on Saturday morning, OK Mr Horse Racing Forum Mod?       

If you can't figure out who I like from my posts, then so be it. What I haven't decided is whether I will use Union or another horse for my 'protection' backup pick. Obvious who it won't be.

The old GH, who I got along well with, was at least witty and sometimes funny. The new version is just obnoxious.

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#46
Posted: 6/5/2012 1:01:22 PM
my response to you on daddy nose best 4/11/12
""I don't touch horses from Dubai/Europe on dirt. In my opinion they are over bet and they do not produce. For those who are interested in fractions here they are...
26.13, :50.54 and 1:15.19

If those fractions were ran here we would think it was a low level claiming race. Of course synthetic courses have slower times but Daddy obviously had the perfect trip sitting off a very slow pace.""

Then he drew the 1 post. I'm not sure if you have watched many derbys but the one horse is AUTO TOSS. I don't care if it is secretariat.

On 4/14/12 I posted in thread after arkansas derby/blue grass

"There isn't all that much speed in this years derby. Of course there will be a fast opening quarter with everyone jockeying for position but then it is just hansen and bodemeister. We will see who else decides to send their horses to the derby. In my eyes the derby is
California- creative, bode, ill have another
Fla- Union Rags
Bluegrass- Dullahan""

And this is coming after I said I usually toss all synthetic horses in the derby. Why did I originally not toss Dully because he ran a very visually impressive bluegrass and Turf horses run well at churchill. It has been known for a long time. Also the churchill downs dirt is Dullahans home track. He had been training there for a long time. He was familiar with the surroundings.

I am not trying to sway you off Dullahan. I don't bet a lot of money on the belmont because it is the one race that I usually get drilled on. Nobody knows who can go the distance and how much the derby horse has left in the tank. Then you can have lone speed get loose at a mile and a half and that is just dangerous. Good luck with whatever you pick but I was on Bode in the derby so I am not going to campaign on why you should bet dullahan and include facts that are not necessary. I don't even think Dullahan ran all that good in the derby, most of the horses up front were backing up from a wicked pace.
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#47
Posted: 6/5/2012 1:12:12 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by fatroll07:

  I don't even think Dullahan ran all that good in the derby, most of the horses up front were backing up from a wicked pace.

I'll Have AnotherBodemeisterDullahanWent the Day WellCreative Cause
Gutierrez 126 19 6-hd 7-2½ 6-1 4-½ 2-2 1-1½ 15.30
M. Smith 126 6 1-hd 1-1 1-1 1-3 1-3 2-nk 4.20
Desormeaux 126 5 11-½ 11-hd 13-½ 7-½ 5-1 3-¾ 12.10
Velazquez 126 13 17-½ 17-1 15-½ 14-1-½ 9-hd 4-½ 30.60
Rosario 126 8 10-hd 10-½ 11-½ 5-2½ 3-½ 5-4 11.90

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#48
Posted: 6/5/2012 1:17:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djbrow:

If you can't figure out who I like from my posts, then so be it. What I haven't decided is whether I will use Union or another horse for my 'protection' backup pick. Obvious who it won't be.

The old GH, who I got along well with, was at least witty and sometimes funny. The new version is just obnoxious.





How about for a change you just make a thread and post your final plays.

It's not going to hurt anything.   It'll take you a minute.   Or put them in MikeyP's thread that he has for all the big stakes races.   Thanks in advance.       

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#49
Posted: 6/5/2012 1:22:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Greyhound:





How about for a change you just make a thread and post your final plays.

It's not going to hurt anything.   It'll take you a minute.   Or put them in MikeyP's thread that he has for all the big stakes races.   Thanks in advance.       

How about you stick purely to analysis or making picks and not complain about other posters.

You realize until you interjected with your BS, this has been a great back and forth discussion on a very big horse race.
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#50
Posted: 6/5/2012 2:27:12 PM
Greys analysis is useless which is why he starts talking S#%*. Thinks hes the authority on everything.
In reality before the derby he was trying to make serious cases for done talking and daddy long legs.
so like i said Greys analysis is absolutely usesless
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