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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Steven Christ on Bodemeister. DRF
Roused send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/16/2012 2:13:46 PM
"Granted, the Oaklawn Handicap unfolded with a slow pace that worked against the closers and a faster final time: Alternation, who led all the way, ran his first six furlongs in 1:12.59 while Bodemeister was in front after 6f in 1:11.36. But it's not as if the older horses then finished up any faster: Bodemeister and Alternation came home in identical final three-eighths of 37.35, after Bodemeister ran the first six furlongs seven lengths faster".

Wow !
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Posted: 4/16/2012 2:14:32 PM
"Bodemeister earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 108 winning at Oaklawn Saturday, which is 10 to 14 points higher than the winning figures in this year's four other Grade 1 prep races for the classics"

Even more impressive.
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#3
Posted: 4/16/2012 2:20:46 PM

Gotta worry big time about a "bounce" now.   He's not going to have 5 weeks off this time only 3 weeks.  

I'm betting against him in the Derby for that reason.      


The Arkansas Derby field wasn't that strong either.   Pretty weak actually.   

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#4
Posted: 4/16/2012 2:20:46 PM

Gotta worry big time about a "bounce" now.   He's not going to have 5 weeks off this time only 3 weeks.  

I'm betting against him in the Derby for that reason.      


The Arkansas Derby field wasn't that strong either.   Pretty weak actually.   

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Posted: 4/16/2012 3:31:04 PM
You were worried about the bounce in the Ark Derby, right ?
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#6
Posted: 4/16/2012 3:41:17 PM
Bode picked up a 108 beyer, thats great........I dont think we've had a horse that high in years going into the derby............as for bouncing, it could happen.........I definitely want to see what post he draws.

I wish they could draw post position 2 weeks in advance but with uncertainty in who will stay healthy & what not, it cant happen............
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#7
Posted: 4/16/2012 3:43:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:

You were worried about the bounce in the Ark Derby, right ?




No, I changed my mind on that.    Post 16 of this THREAD


I'm not changing my mind this time though.       He's going to be heavy chalk anyway.    Chalk is your style not mine.   

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Posted: 4/16/2012 10:06:31 PM
Heavy Chalk ? Not in this field. Maybe 4-5 to 1. The lowest.
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#9
Posted: 4/16/2012 10:38:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Roused:

Heavy Chalk ? Not in this field. Maybe 4-5 to 1. The lowest.
  He is awesome but no way is his odds that low.  Somewhere around 5/2 probably.  I'm glad because Union Rags is my play and his odds just increased.  I don't know if he is a better horse than Bodemeister but I think he is the play in this particular race. 
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Posted: 4/16/2012 11:10:19 PM
I am just reading the odds debate on Bode. I have talked to a few different handicappers and our opinions on his odds have been way different. I predict 7-2.  Another friend of mine is saying 6 or 7-1. I think people are looking at it from different angles.
1) No horse has won unraced as a 2 year old since 1882
2) People believe Bode is a need for lead kind of horse which is unsuccessful in the derby.
3) People still have a boner for Union Rags.
4) Bounce factor

Now I'll tell you what I see in Bode. First I believe he can rate. I rewatched the San Felipe. He broke inside and he had no problem letting the horse outside of him run right past him. Jockey switched him outside and he settled just off the pace. Two, I believe in beyers and he is WAY faster then the rest of these horses. Three, unless you are betting on your horse to have a bad trip you want your horse to have a high cruising speed to get in good position. Big Brown, Barbaro, Smarty Jones. These were horses that could get themselves in a good spot and saved a ton of ground. Compare these horses to Empire Maker, Curlin, Point Given. Horses that were some of the best 3 year olds I have seen. Why did they lose? Easy they lost because they were the best horses and stayed out of trouble going wide wide wide. They ran the biggest number in the race and were not good enough to win. They all remind me of Union Rags. Bode is bred to run all day yet he has speed too. He is going to be ultra dangerous if he keeps his weight and comes back strong. People thought Smarty would bounce etc.

His odds will not be anywhere near 8-5 or 1-1 whatever you guys were thinking. Lowest possible would be 5-2 but I think they will be closer to 4-1. Remember he just got beat by creative cause a few weeks back. People don't forget these things.
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Posted: 4/16/2012 11:27:58 PM
People also forget when Bode lost in the San Felipe it was his FIRST two turn race. This is a very difficult thing for a young horse going up against a horse as good as creative cause. There was also report that Bode got very worked up in the paddock.

After the Arkansas Derby Baffert said. "He was relaxed. His last race (second by three-quarters of a length to Creative Cause in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 10 after leading into the stretch), he sort of fell apart going to the gate, he got hot; he was a mess. Yesterday he was pretty calm, cool and relaxed. He did everything very professionally."

So is he learning or will he fall apart with the Derby crowd?
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Posted: 4/17/2012 12:12:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by diabolical:

  He is awesome but no way is his odds that low.  Somewhere around 5/2 probably.  I'm glad because Union Rags is my play and his odds just increased.  I don't know if he is a better horse than Bodemeister but I think he is the play in this particular race. 


No, I meant 4-1 or 5-1. The overall favorite whoever he is will be no lower than 4-1.
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#13
Posted: 4/17/2012 12:14:16 AM
Oh and Mikey Smith will lower the odds a bit. Big name jockey and not just inside horse racing.
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#14
Posted: 4/17/2012 6:51:26 PM
FatRoll and Roused, I enjoy the insight and knowledge of the sport, even though I am a bit of a Bodemeister homer. His first two turn race was actually his second start. He went a mile winning his MSW race at Santa Anita. I'm from California and used to 2 turn miles but I know a lot of other tracks have one turn miles so I thought I'd point it at. You guys have Bode in either future pool? 
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#15
Posted: 4/17/2012 7:47:16 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Roused:

Oh and Mikey Smith will lower the odds a bit. Big name jockey and not just inside horse racing.

20 big name jockeys and trainers.  The only one that "may" hurt a horses odds would be Borel.

HB

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Posted: 4/17/2012 8:27:01 PM
Thanks McSchwab. I actually looked that up the other day and I didn't find the answer so I appreciate that. I thought it was the same configuration as Gulfstream my home track which is a 1 turn mile. I never bet out west because I usually get killed unless there is a breeders cup. Fields are a lot shorter too.
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Posted: 4/17/2012 10:12:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McSchwab:

FatRoll and Roused, I enjoy the insight and knowledge of the sport, even though I am a bit of a Bodemeister homer. His first two turn race was actually his second start. He went a mile winning his MSW race at Santa Anita. I'm from California and used to 2 turn miles but I know a lot of other tracks have one turn miles so I thought I'd point it at. You guys have Bode in either future pool? 


Thanks McSchwab, No I have Gemologist, but had Bode big in the Ark and love the idea of Mike Smith being the jockey.
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Posted: 4/17/2012 10:21:14 PM
No I don't which is probably pretty dumb of me considering I hit him pretty hard at Oaklawn. I have gotten burned too many times in futures so I don't pay much attention to them anymore
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#19
Posted: 4/17/2012 11:26:48 PM
I found this on drf..
Here are the Derby starters that did not race at two (1937-present):
1944 Comenow, 12th
1945 Bert G., 14th
1946 Hampden, 3rd
1946 Perfect Bahram, 9th
1946 Rippey, 10th
1948 Coaltown, 2nd
1951 Fanfare, 5th
1951 Golden Birch, 19th
1956 No Regrets, 7th
1958 Gone Fishin’, 8th
1959 Our Dad, 15th
1968 Gleaming Sword, 13th
1971 Fourulla, 19th
1972 Big Spruce, 7th
1972 Dr. Neale, 15th
1972 Kentuckian, 10th
1973 Forego, 4th
1973 Twice a Prince, 12th
1974 Agitate, 3rd
1974 Confederate Yankee, 12th
1975 Bold Chapeau, 8th
1975 Media, 5th
1976 On the Sly, 5th
1976 Amano, 4th
1977 Affiliate, 9th
1977 Best Person, 15th
1978 Chief of Dixieland, 9th
1979 Great Redeemer, 10th
1981 Flying Nashua, 8th
1982 Air Forbes Won, 7th
1982 Reinvested, 3rd
1982 Wavering Monarch, 12th
1984 Majestic Shore, DNF
1985 Irish Fighter, 11th
1986 Wheatly Hall, 6th
1986 Zabaleta, 12th
1990 Pendleton Ridge, 13th
1991 Corporate Report, 9th
1991 Alydavid, 14th
1992 Devil His Due, 12th
1992 Disposal, 18th
1994 Strodes Creek, 2nd
1997 Pulpit, 4th
1999 Desert Hero, 13th
1999 Valhol, 15th
2000 Wheelaway, 5th
2000 Curule, 7th
2000 Trippi, 11th
2003 Atswhatimtalknbout, 4th
2004 Song of the Sword, 11th
2005 Greeley's Galaxy, 11th
2006 Showing Up, 6th
2007 Curlin, 3rd
2009 Summer Bird, 6th
2009 Dunkirk, 11th
2011 Midnight Interlude, 16th
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#20
Posted: 4/17/2012 11:51:19 PM
 Two second place finishes Four third place finishes Wow

Remember, didn't BODE have to win AD  to earn enough to QUALIFY for Derby anyway I hope the betting public lays the wood  on him so others odds improve. I feel the streak continues anyway
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Posted: 4/18/2012 8:25:07 AM
Looking at these dates I realized I have been betting the derby since 1996 when I was 13 years old. I guess that is why people think I'm a degenerate gambler.I hit my first tri in 1997 with silver charm.

Looking at the horses who ran in the derby with no starts at 2 I can honestly say I only gave one of them a shot(since 1997)... Curlin. He ran a respectable 3rd with a very wide trip. I guess I would say pulpit was the second best horse on that list and if i remember correctly he got hurt in the derby and still ran 4th. I didn't like him to win or anything but he was a solid horse. 

A lot of years we didn't even have a horse in the race. Now we have the era of less races is better which gives horses who haven't raced at 2 a chance to catch up in experience. Bodemeister now has as many starts as Animal Kingdom did a year ago(correct me if im wrong because I don't like looking stuff up while I type). We are seeing a change in times. There have been many trends that have been broken over the last 5 years. I believe the trend will cause Bodemeister to be an overlay. If this horse really goes off at 5-1 and continues to look good at the track (yesterday assistant trainer said he looks very sharp and is roaring in his stall) I will have substantial action on him. He should be 3-1
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#22
Posted: 4/18/2012 8:42:25 AM

http://assets.churchilldowns.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/past_performances/bodemeister5044.pdf

http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2011/profile-assets/PPs/AnimalKingdomPP.pdf

Fat there is no question he HAS to be at least 5-1.  I honestly can't see how he isn't 6/7 or better.

Yes he an Animal Kingdom had the same amount of starts coming into the KY Derby.  However, it's not comparable.  AK raced around two turns twice at 2yo then got a four month break before starting his 3yo campaign. 

For what it's worth in the can Bode rate category?  He rated in his maiden and couldn't close the deal.  I wouldn't crush him for that effort, but it's on the form.

HB

 

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#23
Posted: 4/18/2012 8:47:50 AM
damn looking back at animal kingdom he really had a nice improving form. Probably resembles Dullahan the most this year. I think Bode/Union will vie for favoritism at 5-1
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#24
Posted: 4/18/2012 11:47:00 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by fatroll07:

damn looking back at animal kingdom he really had a nice improving form. Probably resembles Dullahan the most this year. I think Bode/Union will vie for favoritism at 5-1

One major difference is, Dullahan has raced on dirt and never challenged when in against the likes of these 3yo.

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#25
Posted: 4/18/2012 11:59:52 AM
I dont like Bode to win this derby but you cant over look the Baffert angle........hes won 3 KD's with 3 different jockeys.........

Has also had several 2nd place finishes in the derby, so..............
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