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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: ***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***
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#126
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:52:34 PM
@seakev, done talking seriously???? i wish i could take your bets... Dullahan 0-3 at CD good luck with that too.
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#127
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:05:37 PM
7 of past 11 derby winning horses had their trainer coming to the derby for the 1st time..............
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#128
Posted: 5/1/2012 11:50:15 AM
Im jumping off Creative Cause, dont like what his trainer has been saying about his horse...........

Im starting to like Gemologist.........everyone is talking about UR & Bode, Gemologist will be under rated & you will get good odds. Still gotta see the PP draw tomorrow..............
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#129
Posted: 5/1/2012 2:26:01 PM
Union Rags, Bode & Daddy Knows Best have had the best work outs at CD & have look the best & it seems everyone will be putting those 3 on top of their tri's & supers...........dont be fooled by workouts, they can help but dont tell the whole story.

Imo, neither if these horses will win the KD..............
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#130
Posted: 5/1/2012 4:48:29 PM
cant wait for saturday....im thinking too much talk on Bode so he may be a pass for me..PTB ur thoughts on "ill have another"...as always thanks for all the great info
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#131
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:05:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by QBUN:

cant wait for saturday....im thinking too much talk on Bode so he may be a pass for me..PTB ur thoughts on "ill have another"...as always thanks for all the great info


That horse is tricky.......if he would have ran a better race back in Sept. at Saratoga on the sloppy track at 7f, I would have liked him but the way he ran, 6th by 19 lengths in a 10 horse field, no excuse imo..........

He had a 5 month layoff after that horrendous race & came back to win 2 races, G2 & G1 with Mario on the mount. Nice stalking position to win both races but I keep going back to that terrible race at Saratoga.........unless there was 4 inches of water on the track, I see no excuse unless he just hates the slop. 

I for one like horses that can run on anything & anywhere.............he ran his 2 first races on poly, which is good.........he may be there but I cant pick him for the win. 

Bottom line, great trainer but I dont like the jockey much, although he is 2 for 2 with this pony............
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#132
Posted: 5/1/2012 5:32:56 PM
Post position draw is on NBC Sports channel 603 on DirecTv Wed. 5pm.
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#133
Posted: 5/1/2012 7:29:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Union Rags, Bode & Daddy Knows Best have had the best work outs at CD & have look the best & it seems everyone will be putting those 3 on top of their tri's & supers...........dont be fooled by workouts, they can help but dont tell the whole story.

Imo, neither if these horses will win the KD..............

Why do you like DNB so much?

HB 
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#134
Posted: 5/1/2012 8:56:29 PM
IMO Gemologist is not gonna be underrated but you keep saying it. and what do you consider good odds????? because it wont be any higher then 8-1. which dont get me wrong are good odds but i feel like you think your gonna get double digits.
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#135
Posted: 5/1/2012 9:08:10 PM
Ill Have Another has the most impressive races in 2012  coming into the derby of any other horse, 2 races and 2 very impressive wins. blew the field away in 1 race and showed he is very game in the SA derby. the track was a mess at saratoga the day he ran there so draw a line through that race. what i like most about him is that he breaks well and doesnt get himself in trouble, so he should get a clean trip as long as he doesnt draw too wide...... 
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#136
Posted: 5/1/2012 9:46:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HolyBull:


Why do you like DNB so much?

HB 


I said DNB, UR & Bode wont win the derby...........I do like DNB in the super & possibly the tri.............
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#137
Posted: 5/1/2012 9:47:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

IMO Gemologist is not gonna be underrated but you keep saying it. and what do you consider good odds????? because it wont be any higher then 8-1. which dont get me wrong are good odds but i feel like you think your gonna get double digits.


I will take 8-1 all day long...........Gemologist is an undefeated horse & if im getting those odds, I will be more than happy.............
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#138
Posted: 5/1/2012 10:14:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



I said DNB, UR & Bode wont win the derby...........I do like DNB in the super & possibly the tri.............

Gotcha, I think I'm in agreement on all three. Bode and DNB for sure.

HB

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#139
Posted: 5/1/2012 11:02:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



I will take 8-1 all day long...........Gemologist is an undefeated horse & if im getting those odds, I will be more than happy.............


Gem really looks like a plodder to me. Never seen him make a move that made me go "wow, that's a Derby horse." Every time I watch the Wood, the more I am convinced Alpha just didn't want to go by. He had a bad trip and hung. More value on him in the Derby than Gem, that's for damn sure.

I'd look at Gem in the Belmont, I don't think he has to talent to beat these colts in the Derby. Won't be on any of my tickets, except maybe the behind end of superfectas.

What do you see in this colt besides him being undefeated?
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#140
Posted: 5/1/2012 11:23:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:



Gem really looks like a plodder to me. Never seen him make a move that made me go "wow, that's a Derby horse." Every time I watch the Wood, the more I am convinced Alpha just didn't want to go by. He had a bad trip and hung. More value on him in the Derby than Gem, that's for damn sure.

I'd look at Gem in the Belmont, I don't think he has to talent to beat these colts in the Derby. Won't be on any of my tickets, except maybe the behind end of superfectas.

What do you see in this colt besides him being undefeated?


Well, where do I start...........Pletcher, the 2nd best trainer in this race behind Baffert...........the media isnt talking him up at all...........Castellano was on the best horse (Algorithm) but since he got hurt, he chose the next best horse in this years stock........

Castellano is the hottest jockey so far this season & earning more money so far in 2012 than any other jockey...............hes raced at 4 different tracks (twice at CD) & has won at all of them..............the Gems beyers have improved every single race & have never declined............the way Gem didnt let Alpha go by him in the stretch, any other horse would have gotten beat there but the Gem is all business!

Times dont mean much to me when capping the races. Animal Kingdom won at TP at 1 1/8 on poly in final time of 1:52.............

Finally, the more people that tell me they wont be putting Gem on their tickets, the happier it makes me feel.............
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#141
Posted: 5/1/2012 11:26:21 PM
cant wait for ur picks PTB....KD is always fun.....
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#142
Posted: 5/2/2012 7:32:31 AM
Castellano chose the next best horse in Pletchers barn, i think it would be interesting if he could choose between Gem or UR right now!

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-derby-castellano-lands-gemologist-after-roller-coaster-ride

this article pretty much says he opted off UR to stay loyal to Pletcher, his agent also states its not always about picking the best horse....
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#143
Posted: 5/2/2012 7:54:27 AM

[Quote: Originally Posted by Johnnyg7]

Gem really looks like a plodder to me. Never seen him make a move that made me go "wow, that's a Derby horse." Every time I watch the Wood, the more I am convinced Alpha just didn't want to go by. He had a bad trip and hung. More value on him in the Derby than Gem, that's for damn sure.

I'd look at Gem in the Belmont, I don't think he has to talent to beat these colts in the Derby. Won't be on any of my tickets, except maybe the behind end of superfectas.

What do you see in this colt besides him being undefeated?
[/Quote

It's a mazing to me how we all watch replays and see them differently.  It's what makes paramutuel wagering so great.

Johnny I see it differently.  I see a horse who broke very alertly and was not rushed up to the lead , but confidently asked to rate and rate very wide.  I see him make a very good move on the turn (wide again) and then once they hit the lane he fires right past the leaders. 

As far as time goes, I think everyone should watch the Bay Shore.  Durkin states they are going "into the wind" during Trinniberg's win.  This likely had something to do with the slower splits in the Wood as well.

I respect your opinion about being a plodder, but don't see it that way.  The good news for you, is you will certainly get a much larger price than Gemologist backers will.

Angrybarber, I read that as well, the first thing I though was, boy is that posturing on their part, regarding the statements about leaning towards riding for Pletcher.  They left UR for the better thoroughbred at the time.  Period end of story.  Now it's a convenient excuse to state loyalty to Pletcher.  At least that's how I see it.

Either way it worked out great. 

HB

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#144
Posted: 5/2/2012 7:57:03 AM
also Alpha came out of the Wood pretty banged up, i like Gem but hell be going up his toughest competition on saturday. and hears something you might not wanna hear PTB..... Pletcher has had 27 derby starers since 2000 ONLY 3 OF THEM HAVE HIT THE BOARD! his only derby victory is courtesy of Calvin Borel!!
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#145
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:19:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

also Alpha came out of the Wood pretty banged up, i like Gem but hell be going up his toughest competition on saturday. and hears something you might not wanna hear PTB..... Pletcher has had 27 derby starers since 2000 ONLY 3 OF THEM HAVE HIT THE BOARD! his only derby victory is courtesy of Calvin Borel!!


Understood about Pletcher doing lousy percentage wise but he had so much pressure on him to win over the years. The year he had 7 horses in the field is the year I didnt wager on any of his horses. To me it seemed like a ploy to have that many horses, they sucked the publics money in & I wasnt about to be a victim,

The thing I like about undefeated horses is people will always make excuses............like he hasnt ran against anyone tough , etc, etc.............they were saying the same thing about BB & Smarty Jones.........thing is, all these undefeated horses, including Gemologist beat whoever was put in front of them...............
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#146
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:50:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HolyBull:

It's a mazing to me how we all watch replays and see them differently.  It's what makes paramutuel wagering so great.

Johnny I see it differently.  I see a horse who broke very alertly and was not rushed up to the lead , but confidently asked to rate and rate very wide.  I see him make a very good move on the turn (wide again) and then once they hit the lane he fires right past the leaders. 

As far as time goes, I think everyone should watch the Bay Shore.  Durkin states they are going "into the wind" during Trinniberg's win.  This likely had something to do with the slower splits in the Wood as well.

I respect your opinion about being a plodder, but don't see it that way.  The good news for you, is you will certainly get a much larger price than Gemologist backers will.

Angrybarber, I read that as well, the first thing I though was, boy is that posturing on their part, regarding the statements about leaning towards riding for Pletcher.  They left UR for the better thoroughbred at the time.  Period end of story.  Now it's a convenient excuse to state loyalty to Pletcher.  At least that's how I see it.

Either way it worked out great. 

HB





I wasn't saying I'm betting Alpha, but if I had to pick between the 2 I would take the 12-1 on Alpha over the 7-1 on Gemologist (just guessing) since the margin of victory was so narrow and Alpha had much the worst trip. It's very possible that Alpha hung due to the rough trip and the layoff. It's also possible that Gem saw him, dug in, and fought off the challenge. We will find out soon enough



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#147
Posted: 5/2/2012 11:08:14 AM
Going to the derby for the first time this weekend. Never bet horses, know nothing about them. Could someone please tell me how to bet and what to bet? I don't have time to try and figure it out for myself. I want to lay down $500 with a chance to win alot. Where should I put it? Thanx!
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#148
Posted: 5/2/2012 11:20:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stackjohnson:

Going to the derby for the first time this weekend. Never bet horses, know nothing about them. Could someone please tell me how to bet and what to bet? I don't have time to try and figure it out for myself. I want to lay down $500 with a chance to win alot. Where should I put it? Thanx!


Imo & of course this is only my opinion...........if you want to wager all $500 on one horse, I would bet it to show because the derby always has great prices for show money...........

If you are trying to win a lot of money like you said, you need to bet exactas, triples & supers............with $500, I would choose 3 or 4 horses to win, then pick several horses for 2nd & 3rd place, example:


1,2,3,4 keyed with 3,4,6,7,9, with 3,4,6,7,9 (its self explanatory, 1st batch of numbers are for 1st place, 2nd batch for 2nd place & 3rd batch for 3rd place) thats what a triple looks like when you key horses on top............

Here is a better understanding:

The most common trifecta wagers involve boxes and wheels with multiple combinations of horses at a cost of $1 per combination. The minimum amount you can spend on a straight trifecta wager is $2. A $2 straight trifecta bet 2-3-5 would payoff if the first three finishers in the race were 2-3-5 in that exact order. 

A $1 trifecta box of three horses costs $6, or $1 per combination and requires that your three selections finish in the top three positions in any order. For example, a $1 trifecta box 2-3-4 would be a winning ticket if horses 2,3 and 4 finished in the top three positions in any order.

A $1 trifecta wheel involves your key horse(s) played in various positions with other combinations of horses. For example, a $1 trifecta wheel keying horse 3 to win with horses 4,5,6 to finish second and horses 4,5,6 to finish third would cost $1 per combination, or $6. This ticket would be a winner if the number 3 horse won with either 4,5 or 6 finishing second and 4,5, or 6 finishing third.

Another common trifecta wagering strategy is to key two horses in two positions with numerous other horses in the additional position. The structure of this bet might look like 2,3 with 2,3 with 4,5,6,7,8. In this case, horses 2 and 3 would have to finish first and second in either order, and one of 4,5,6,7 or 8 would have to finish third. The number of combinations in this bet is equal to 10, so a $1 trifecta wheel 2,3 with 2,3 with 4,5,6,7,8 would cost $10. Many handicappers will key their top two selections in all three positions, especially if they are betting against the favorites.

To cover all the bases in the above scenario, a bettor would play the following $1 trifecta tickets: 

$1 trifecta wheel 2,3 with 2,3 with 4,5,6,7,8 = $10 
$1 trifecta wheel 2,3 with 4,5,6,7,8 with 2,3 = $10 
$1 trifecta wheel 4,5,6,7,8 with 2,3 with 2,3 = $10

The total outlay for the above trifecta wheels would be $30. 


Cost of $1 trifecta boxes with multiple horses:

· 3 horse $1 trifecta box = $6 
· 4 horse $1 trifecta box = $24 
· 5 horse $1 trifecta box = $60 
· 6 horse $1 trifecta box = $120 
· 7 horse $1 trifecta box = $210 
· 8 horse $1 trifecta box = $336 
· 9 horse $1 trifecta box = $504 
· 10 horse $1 trifecta box = $720 
· 11 horse $1 trifecta box = $990 
· 12 horse $1 trifecta box = $1320

Cost of $1 trifecta wheel keying one horsewith multiple horses in the other two positions:

· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 3 horses = $6 
· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 4 horses = $12 
· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 5 horses = $20 
· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 6 horses = $30 
· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 7 horses = $42 
· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 8 horses = $56 
· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 9 horses = $72 
· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 10 horses = $90

· $1 trifecta wheel 1 horse with 11 horses = $110


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#149
Posted: 5/2/2012 11:26:03 AM
Here are the superfecta numbers:


Cost of $1 superfecta boxes with multiplehorses:

· 4 horse $1 superfecta box = $24 
· 5 horse $1 superfecta box = $120 
· 6 horse $1 superfecta box = $360 
· 7 horse $1 superfecta box = $840 
· 8 horse $1 superfecta box = $1680 
· 9 horse $1 superfecta box = $3024 
· 10 horse $1 superfecta box = $5040 
· 11 horse $1 superfecta box = $7920 
· 12 horse $1 superfecta box = $11880

Cost of $1 superfecta wheel keying one horse with multiple horses in the other three positions:

· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 3 horses= $6 
· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 4 horses = $24 
· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 5 horses = $60 
· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 6 horses = $120 
· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 7 horses = $201 
· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 8 horses = $336 
· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 9 horses = $504 
· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 10 horses = $720 
· $1 superfecta wheel 1 horse with 11 horses = $990

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#150
Posted: 5/2/2012 11:26:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stackjohnson:

Going to the derby for the first time this weekend. Never bet horses, know nothing about them. Could someone please tell me how to bet and what to bet? I don't have time to try and figure it out for myself. I want to lay down $500 with a chance to win alot. Where should I put it? Thanx!


If your goal is to make a big score, I would invest about 150 in the Trifecta and 350 in the superfecta. Naturally, you have a big chance of laying a goose egg but this is the way to do it if it's "go big or go home"

You could just box 6 horses in the tri and super and that would cost $480 total. Some horses I am looking at to hit the board in some way shape or form include Union Rags, Bodemeister, I'll Have Another, and Creative Cause.

Live longshots could be Daddy Nose Best, Take Charge Indy, and Alpha.

Horses that could pick up the pieces to run 4th to complete the Superfecta at a huge price are Rousing Sermon and Sabercat.

Scour the boards here, there are plenty of good handicappers and a lot of good information! There will be plenty of picks flying around after the post position draw today at 5!

Best of luck and most importantly, enjoy the Derby and don't drink too many Mint Juleps

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