***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***

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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: ***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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quote#101
Posted: 4/28/2012 9:41:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

its not just about the time of the work, its about how the horse looks doing it. like animal kingdoms work last year was on of the most visually impressive pre derby works ive ever seen.


I understand but what solidified me in playing Funny Cide was his workout time & they way he was eating every day. Smarty Jones was a shoe in to win the KD but the workout time helped as well. Fusaichi had a terrible workout time & broke the undefeated losing streak going back to the late 70's I believe.

I want to watch the PP draw & a big tell is who is being bet big on derby day. 
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quote#102
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:04:31 PM
Here is an angle I just found........... THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added
blinkers in his or her final start at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point
out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not
searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began
including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers
in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Derby.)
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quote#103
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:21:37 PM
nice work on that info!
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quote#104
Posted: 4/29/2012 12:13:34 AM
I would like to commend Johnny for his visuals on the workouts at CHURCHILL to day and please3 keep them coming


BTW 2 of the 3 CD races I saw today the early front running speed held fairly easily to even widening margins at that Doubt that occurs some short 7 days later
Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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quote#105
Posted: 4/29/2012 12:56:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



Johnny, I cant wrap around the idea of playing this horse to win, at least as of now, what are your thoughts towards this horse, meaning if you had to bet the derby today, would you lean his way?


Short Answer: No

Long Answer:

As professional and focused as he looked, I still don't think I could take a short price on him in this field (short being 9/2 or 5/1). What I will say is that Leparoux is riding like an Eclipse winner right now. He starred at Keeneland and had 4 winners on tonight's card at Churchill. He went through a rough patch after that Florida Derby. I think he took the blame for that loss personally and that caused him to be off psychologically for some time.

With UR, if you look at the Juvenile again, he was anywhere from 4-6 wide through, drifted like a maiden in the stretch and Hansen still only beat him a head after setting reasonable fractions on an easy lead. He has overcome trouble in the past to win, and in the Florida Derby he might have done so if the pace was honest (also a speed biased track that day). You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than getting such a trip in the Derby. So he will have the pace to run at, and he will be in the 3rd race of his form cycle and that has been a trend for recent Derby winners.

That said, IMO there is not much to separate horses like UR, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, Gemologist, or Alpha. I can see Bodemeister running them off their feet Barbaro/Big Brown style, but there are also angles I see where he doesn't hit the board.

If you give me 5-1 on UR and 9-1 on CC, I'm taking Creative Cause every time. If you switch those odds, I'm taking UR every time. So it will all depend on PP and the toteboard, but UR is good enough to win and to leave him off exotics would be foolish IMO.

STEELERS in 07 PM STEELERS in 07
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quote#106
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:08:13 AM
I'm playing $2.00 tri in the 10 horse box
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PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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quote#107
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:35:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:



Short Answer: No

Long Answer:

As professional and focused as he looked, I still don't think I could take a short price on him in this field (short being 9/2 or 5/1). What I will say is that Leparoux is riding like an Eclipse winner right now. He starred at Keeneland and had 4 winners on tonight's card at Churchill. He went through a rough patch after that Florida Derby. I think he took the blame for that loss personally and that caused him to be off psychologically for some time.

With UR, if you look at the Juvenile again, he was anywhere from 4-6 wide through, drifted like a maiden in the stretch and Hansen still only beat him a head after setting reasonable fractions on an easy lead. He has overcome trouble in the past to win, and in the Florida Derby he might have done so if the pace was honest (also a speed biased track that day). You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than getting such a trip in the Derby. So he will have the pace to run at, and he will be in the 3rd race of his form cycle and that has been a trend for recent Derby winners.

That said, IMO there is not much to separate horses like UR, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, Gemologist, or Alpha. I can see Bodemeister running them off their feet Barbaro/Big Brown style, but there are also angles I see where he doesn't hit the board.

If you give me 5-1 on UR and 9-1 on CC, I'm taking Creative Cause every time. If you switch those odds, I'm taking UR every time. So it will all depend on PP and the toteboard, but UR is good enough to win and to leave him off exotics would be foolish IMO.



If I like a horse & I see they are not betting it off the ML, I stray away..........only horse that I had that their odds went up from the ML was Monarchos.......went up about 2 points. I dont like seeing my horse at like 5-1 in the ML & then at post time, its sitting at 10-1, that scary. This of course is my opinion in the KD, not other races. 
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quote#108
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:39:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by STEELERS in 07:

I'm playing $2.00 tri in the 10 horse box


Here are the 10 horses I would box:

Bodemeister

Gemologist

Union Rags

I'll Have Another

Creative Cause

Mark Valeski

El Padrino

Went the Day Well

Dullahan

Hansen

(if you dont like one of the above, switch it with Daddy Knows Best)



McSchwab PM McSchwab
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quote#109
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:59:20 PM
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2012-bodemeister-looks-just-good-union-rags-did-day-earlier

They are all running for second boys. 

MRPRISTINE PM MRPRISTINE
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quote#110
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:17:58 PM
LIKE THE 10 HORSES YOU LISTED PRIME TIME BOYS.
I'M LEANING ON A FEW HORSES RIGHT NOW.  THEY ARE UNION RAGS, GEMOLOGIST, DULLAHAN AND EL PADRINO.
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quote#111
Posted: 4/29/2012 4:39:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McSchwab:

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2012-bodemeister-looks-just-good-union-rags-did-day-earlier

They are all running for second boys. 



Workout articles can be misleading imo.............
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quote#112
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:42:22 AM
If there is a pace dull up front like I think there will be, the closers will be coming................Bode & UR have had good workouts & Gemologist had a decent one in the sloppy track down in Florida while Padrino didnt bode so well..............

Is its a sizzling pace up front, it will help Dullahan, Sabercat & a few others. The weather looks good for Wed, Thur & Fri but scattered thunder storms for Saturday............I doubt there will be much rain/water on the track for the derby.
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quote#113
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:20:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MRPRISTINE:

LIKE THE 10 HORSES YOU LISTED PRIME TIME BOYS.
I'M LEANING ON A FEW HORSES RIGHT NOW.  THEY ARE UNION RAGS, GEMOLOGIST, DULLAHAN AND EL PADRINO.


Dullahan has me thinking hard about playing him on top in several triples & supers..........
angrybarber PM angrybarber
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quote#114
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:58:17 AM
Dullahan is 0-3 at CD. Hes a turf/synthetic horse, Romans just wants a horse in the derby.

I cant believe that no one is talking about Ill Have Another. 3-5 lifetime lost 1 to Creative Cause and his other loss came on a sloppy track at saratoga. Everyone seems to be writing him off bc of his connections but this horse seems to put himself in good position which is a huge plus in the Derby, he has some guts which he showed in the SA derby, and he has potential to explode turning for home in the RobertLewis. Sometimes connections dont matter the horse may just be that good!
Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex are the best recent examples i can think of.
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quote#115
Posted: 4/30/2012 10:22:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

Dullahan is 0-3 at CD. Hes a turf/synthetic horse, Romans just wants a horse in the derby.

I cant believe that no one is talking about Ill Have Another. 3-5 lifetime lost 1 to Creative Cause and his other loss came on a sloppy track at saratoga. Everyone seems to be writing him off bc of his connections but this horse seems to put himself in good position which is a huge plus in the Derby, he has some guts which he showed in the SA derby, and he has potential to explode turning for home in the RobertLewis. Sometimes connections dont matter the horse may just be that good!
Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex are the best recent examples i can think of.


 I hope you're not comparing IHA to AA & SJ, no comparison what so ever...........

Dullahan is 0-3 at CD but with the longer distance, he has gotten closer, he came in 4th to Hansen, UR & CC in the Breeder Cup Juvi..........if there is a sizzling pace, look out! I still want to watch the PP draw & are by no means picking Dullahan as my derby horse, just was looking at him as a closer.........
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quote#116
Posted: 4/30/2012 11:39:47 AM
no no i meant connections
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quote#117
Posted: 4/30/2012 11:46:59 AM
Smarty Jones stewart elliot/john servis and Afleet Alex jeremy rose/tim ritchey. 

IMO Dullahan will not win, no matter what the pace is. some of these stalkers will get 1st run on him and thats gonna be that. the horses im really talking about getting 1st run are UR and Ill Have Another. pending PP i really believe 1 of those 2 will win. 
HolyBull PM HolyBull
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quote#118
Posted: 4/30/2012 11:53:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



 I hope you're not comparing IHA to AA & SJ, no comparison what so ever...........

Dullahan is 0-3 at CD but with the longer distance, he has gotten closer, he came in 4th to Hansen, UR & CC in the Breeder Cup Juvi..........if there is a sizzling pace, look out! I still want to watch the PP draw & are by no means picking Dullahan as my derby horse, just was looking at him as a closer.........

No matter the post draw, do you envision anything else?

HB

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quote#119
Posted: 4/30/2012 11:57:39 AM
good point HB the pace is gonna be hot regardless of where the speed draws.
Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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quote#120
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:11:58 PM
Too many good stalkers and mid pack horses for Dullahan to win. He would crush the field on Synthetic, but let's be honest, dirt is not his best surface. This is not the same field Animal Kingdom beat up on last year,

To win he'd have to pass the likes of Union Rags, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, Gemologist, and Alpha who are almost sure to have first run on him.

And that's assuming we get the "suicidal" pace everyone keeps talking about. What if Trinniberg stumbles out of the gate and gets caught behind a wall of horses? What if Hanses draws the 1 post?

When everyone hypes the pace, it often disappoints. If anyone thinks Mike Smith is going to gun a horse like Bodemeister into 22/45/109 fractions you're out of your mind. Dominguez is going to do everything in his power to hold Hansen off the lead- it's their only hope to win the race.

A horse that's absolutely flying under the radar with all these talented colts is Take Charge Indy. I'm not sure anyone knows how good he is after a relatively soft wire to wire Fla Derby, but he was passed at the top of the stretch and fought back to win comfortably. Calvin Borel is still aboard, and if the track comes up slop, watch out for that one.



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quote#121
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:26:11 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

Too many good stalkers and mid pack horses for Dullahan to win. He would crush the field on Synthetic, but let's be honest, dirt is not his best surface. This is not the same field Animal Kingdom beat up on last year,

To win he'd have to pass the likes of Union Rags, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, Gemologist, and Alpha who are almost sure to have first run on him.

And that's assuming we get the "suicidal" pace everyone keeps talking about. What if Trinniberg stumbles out of the gate and gets caught behind a wall of horses? What if Hanses draws the 1 post?

When everyone hypes the pace, it often disappoints. If anyone thinks Mike Smith is going to gun a horse like Bodemeister into 22/45/109 fractions you're out of your mind. Dominguez is going to do everything in his power to hold Hansen off the lead- it's their only hope to win the race.

A horse that's absolutely flying under the radar with all these talented colts is Take Charge Indy. I'm not sure anyone knows how good he is after a relatively soft wire to wire Fla Derby, but he was passed at the top of the stretch and fought back to win comfortably. Calvin Borel is still aboard, and if the track comes up slop, watch out for that one.



The Derby is such a unique race.  If a horse were 6-1 in the feature at Belmont on Saturday, we say he is "under the radar."  In the Derby we might call 6-1 "the favorite."

My point, more than half of the field is " under the radar."  Yet, I will admit, TCI is flying lower than most.

HB

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quote#122
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:36:40 PM
And down the stretch we come..........
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quote#123
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:48:47 PM
5 of the 6 previous derby winners have ran on turf or polytrack, just wanted to throw this tidbit in there.............
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quote#124
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:22:28 PM

Dullahan - Take Charge Indy - Done Talking - Bode - Gemologist

Waiting for PPs to arrange...Love Desormeaux on Dullahan. Horse starts so bad, every race, but brings it at the wire. Give me Borel on a good horse and you can't count him out of nothing. That son of a girl has the biggest pair of balls in the world. He'll ride his horse through a pin hole if he has too. Fortunetly, his ride is pretty decent in Take Charge Indy.

We'll see, should be a good race. I'll tell you right now I wanted put spit on Union Rags or Hansen they blew there load 7 months ago......

Have fun

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quote#125
Posted: 4/30/2012 6:39:17 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by seakev1]

Dullahan - Take Charge Indy - Done Talking - Bode - Gemologist

 Give me Borel on a good horse and you can't count him out of nothing. That son of a girl has the biggest pair of balls in the world. He'll ride his horse through a pin hole if he has too. Fortunetly, his ride is pretty decent in Take Charge Indy.


 I'll tell you right now I wanted put spit on Union Rags or Hansen they blew there load 7 months ago.....




No way in HELL u throw out UR or HANSEN for  that matterI If this track comes up fast on SATURDAY  Union Rags WILL be coming on like a freight train no matter what Just go rewatch that BC Juvenile at CD last year. UR has been specifically trained for this Run for the Roses even though PTB doesn't like him.


Can' t wait for PP draw, Tues or Wednesday?








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