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[Horse Racing] Topic: ***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS*** |
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QBUN |
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#51 Posted: 4/24/2012 2:18:23 PM |
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#52 Posted: 4/24/2012 2:21:50 PM |
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#53 Posted: 4/24/2012 3:38:51 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by QBUN:
sir d u have that one chart that shows d winniest post position for d kentucky derby? i remember seeing it last year...thanks in advance
Yeah............
Years 1900-2011
| Position | Wins | | 1 | 12 | | 2 | 9 | | 3 | 8 | | 4 | 11 | | 5 | 12 | | 6 | 6 | | 7 | 8 | | 8 | 10 | | 9 | 4 | | 10 | 10 | | 11 | 3 | | 12 | 3 | | 13 | 4 | | 14 | 2 | | 15 | 3 | | 16 | 4 | | 17 | 0 | | 18 | 1 | | 19 | 0 | | 20 | 2 |
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#54 Posted: 4/24/2012 3:46:52 PM
Kentucky: 98 , Florida: 6, Virginia: 4, California: 3, Tennessee: 3, New Jersey: 2, Texas: 2, several other states had 1 winner........... |
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#55 Posted: 4/24/2012 3:54:02 PM
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/pdfs/20120417%20PPs%20Top%20Derby%20Contenders_0.pdf |
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STLCard |
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#56 Posted: 4/24/2012 4:05:39 PM
I'm heading to the Oaks and Derby this year. I need some advice on capping the races on these days. I've done a little, but never really had a good grasp. What should I be looking at? How should I approach the other races? Any tips on reading material, or advice would be very much appreciated.
I've been to Keenland a couple time the past few years, but never to Churchill Downs.
Thanks!
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#57 Posted: 4/24/2012 4:36:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by STLCard: PrimeTime,
I'm heading to the Oaks and Derby this year. I need some advice on capping the races on these days. I've done a little, but never really had a good grasp. What should I be looking at? How should I approach the other races? Any tips on reading material, or advice would be very much appreciated.
I've been to Keenland a couple time the past few years, but never to Churchill Downs.
Thanks!
Oh man, you will have a blast, at least from what ive seen on tv, since ive never been there..........as for advice on capping the ponies, its tough to give advice, at least for me. Everyone has different ways they cap the races & there are different levels of racing.
For instance, no way could you cap the derby like you cap Penn National or any other track . The derby is a tricky race & just when you think you have it figured out, out of nowhere comes Giacomo to win at 50-1...........the derby humbles you as a capper because there are so many horses in the field & it takes a good horse & a good jockey to get the job done.
The Kentucky Oaks is a bit easier to cap imo............I will give you my picks for both the day before. If you want advice on the ins & outs of capping a track or race, there are some great horse cappers in this forum that could help you out............I havent capped a regular horse race since early 2000's..........I stick with the big prep races in march & april & the derby, preakness & belmont stakes...........
I lay the angles & trends out to hopefully make the race a bit easier...........good luck at the derby! If you are betting more than just for fun money, I suggest you dont drink alcohol & keep your head clean. Drink after the big race..................  |
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#58 Posted: 4/24/2012 6:51:28 PM
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#59 Posted: 4/24/2012 9:18:29 PM
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#60 Posted: 4/24/2012 10:46:45 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:
I'll have another's last workout at Hollywood Park shows Vet List. I looked into different forums and somebody reported that he is getting ESWT. Extracorporeal shockwave therapy. I don't know much about it. Probably has something to do with his really long layoffs between races. Heck if I know what is going on out there with juice mcgee Oneil. I may be looking to far into this but now I have him and Alpha on the keep a close eye list. Alpha is almost as good as a toss for me however I doubt he even reaches the starting gate. Time will tell
I definitely think there is something wrong with Alpha.........the juicemeister will try & have his horse repeat what he did in the SA derby but I doubt he will perform anything close to that in the KD. |
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#61 Posted: 4/24/2012 11:49:06 PM   nice stuff thanks for the info
thats what I like about this site- everyone has a input/analysis
and no drama- keep the good stuff coming |
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#62 Posted: 4/25/2012 12:12:08 AM
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69218/ill-have-another-has-shock-wave-therapy
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#63 Posted: 4/25/2012 12:38:47 AM
How many horses have won the derby over the last 10 years with blinkers
How many horses have hit the board the last 10 years with blinkers.
This may be a totally bogus angle but I was thinking about it today. The derby has so much going on with the crowd and the field size and any horse with blinkers has obvious issues. Horses without blinkers can take it all in and see everything going on around them.
I was also thinking about Creative Cause and Bodemeister taking the blinkers off late in their 3yo preps. Thanks in advance if anyone has this information. Even if it is the last 5 years
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#64 Posted: 4/25/2012 1:01:12 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:
I was wondering if anyone keeps their information from past derbies. I was hoping to find out the following information
How many horses have won the derby over the last 10 years with blinkers
How many horses have hit the board the last 10 years with blinkers.
This may be a totally bogus angle but I was thinking about it today. The derby has so much going on with the crowd and the field size and any horse with blinkers has obvious issues. Horses without blinkers can take it all in and see everything going on around them.
I was also thinking about Creative Cause and Bodemeister taking the blinkers off late in their 3yo preps. Thanks in advance if anyone has this information. Even if it is the last 5 years
Hmm....im gonna have to dig deep to try & find those stats. I dont even know if I can find those stats but they are out there somewhere........ |
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#65 Posted: 4/25/2012 1:09:21 AM |
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#66 Posted: 4/25/2012 6:28:15 AM |
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#67 Posted: 4/25/2012 6:35:11 AM 2010- make music for me 4th 2007- imawildandcrazyguy 4th 2004- imperialism 3rd 2003- empire maker 2nd..... atswhatimtalknbout 4th 2001- congaree 3rd |
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#68 Posted: 4/25/2012 6:49:02 AM
Good stuff Barber.........so only 1 horse past 11 derby winners wore blinkers........., Congaree & EM were damn good horses but couldnt get the job done. I guess Harrington wants no part of the blinkers recent history of not winning. |
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#69 Posted: 4/25/2012 6:51:11 AM 1998- real quiet 1995- thunder gulch
if you go on equibase.com you can search any horse and it will give you the charts for all their races going back to 1991.
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#70 Posted: 4/25/2012 6:53:35 AM |
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#71 Posted: 4/25/2012 6:55:42 AM |
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#72 Posted: 4/25/2012 7:04:51 AM |
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#73 Posted: 4/25/2012 7:22:19 AM
I think it was from another forum & the guy is pretty good with stats in horseracing.......... |
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#74 Posted: 4/25/2012 8:57:49 AM
About the Apollo trend. I am not the first person to say this... 5 years ago we would have tossed ANY horse that had not raced within the last 4 weeks of the derby. It was unheard of. What about the breeders cup juvenile winners never coming back and winning (Street sense changed that). Or what about Animal Kingdom winning last year never had run on the conventional dirt with 4 lifetime starts???
Bodemeister, although he didn't race, had 26 published workouts last
year, starting in June and continuing through December, with some
fireworks of his own, at five-eighths of a mile, on New Year's Eve. He
wasn't lounging by the pool. He was working, training, learning,
preparing, and his trainer, Bob Baffert, waited for him.
"He was very immature," Baffert said about the April foal, "and took a
little longer to come around. He never had any problems. And he has
really grown these last couple of months."
Those who do not believe in the hex will want to compare Bodemeister
to the 2000 Kentucky Derby winner, Fusaichi Pegasus. That colt made his
debut on Dec. 11, finishing second before breaking his maiden on Jan. 2.
The Neil Drysdale trainee would win four more consecutive races,
including the Kentucky Derby.Bodemeister hit the track for the
first time on Jan. 16, finishing second just as Fusaichi Pegasus did in
his debut. The colt then broke his maiden on Feb. 11 before running a
game second to Creative Cause as the favorite in the San Felipe Stakes. Is there reason to doubt this horse? Of course he beat a suspect field in Ark but there is no doubt that he is the fastest horse in this race and some may look at 5 or 6 to 1 as odds that are too low but I look at those odds as value for the fastest horse in the race. If you gave union rags bodemeisters beyers in 2012 you would have the shortest price favorite in the history of the kentucky derby. It's getting closer and closer
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/04/16/2751932/can-bodemeister-snap-a-130-year.html#storylink=cpy
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#75 Posted: 4/25/2012 9:16:15 AM |
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