***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***

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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: ***KENTUCKY DERBY THOUGHTS & PLAYS***
angrybarber PM angrybarber
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Posted: 4/22/2012 2:02:06 PM
Super saver got bet down for 1 reason, calvin borel. Borel was on 20-1 last year that went off 11-1 and this year im sure take charge indy will take alot of $ too.
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angrybarber PM angrybarber
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Posted: 4/22/2012 2:09:23 PM
With the addition of Trinniberg id be careful with hansen and bode. They will most likely be way too close to a pretty hot pace. IMO this race sets up great for Union Rags now hes never too close to the pace and gets his best stride going late and if anything he is consistent so he will be around late. Other horses that the pace should benefit Alpha if hes ok, Dullahan, Creative Cause and Ill Have Another.
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howzuck PM howzuck
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Posted: 4/22/2012 6:34:04 PM
PTB, I always love your comments, been following Triple Crown races since the mid 80s, I totally agree with your thought that a deep closer won't win the Derby this year. Which stalker will be in the right position at the top of the stretch?  Post position a little luck, and a well-timed move will determine the top finishers.  I don't think this is the type of field where there will be wire-to-wire winner.  Seems very wide open, which says stay away from short prices, I'm sure exotics will be huge, don't do too much handicapping, that's not what this race is about.
jheikura PM jheikura
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Posted: 4/22/2012 7:10:16 PM
a very tough race to cap this year, I agree with the post position being key on how the race will unfold.  However I do think a deep closer will win it this year, too much speed in this race for me not to believe a deep closer will win.
jheikura PM jheikura
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Posted: 4/22/2012 7:29:45 PM
also I liked the way Hansen ran in the Gotham, did a good job running just off the pace.  
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/22/2012 8:51:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

With the addition of Trinniberg id be careful with hansen and bode. They will most likely be way too close to a pretty hot pace. IMO this race sets up great for Union Rags now hes never too close to the pace and gets his best stride going late and if anything he is consistent so he will be around late. Other horses that the pace should benefit Alpha if hes ok, Dullahan, Creative Cause and Ill Have Another.


Trinni should go out front & try to wire the field with Hansen right behind & several others right with him. I cant figure out Bode.......imo, he can rate but if he is pulling on the reigns, the jockey shouldnt fight him & just let him run his race.


PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/22/2012 8:56:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by howzuck:

PTB, I always love your comments, been following Triple Crown races since the mid 80s, I totally agree with your thought that a deep closer won't win the Derby this year. Which stalker will be in the right position at the top of the stretch?  Post position a little luck, and a well-timed move will determine the top finishers.  I don't think this is the type of field where there will be wire-to-wire winner.  Seems very wide open, which says stay away from short prices, I'm sure exotics will be huge, don't do too much handicapping, that's not what this race is about.


Thanks........I believe we are right in thinking it will be a stalker that does have speed & will get out & position themselves right. As for capping this race, the derby can be tricky. There are so many angles to look at & we can get confused after looking at everything.


PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/22/2012 8:58:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jheikura:

a very tough race to cap this year, I agree with the post position being key on how the race will unfold.  However I do think a deep closer will win it this year, too much speed in this race for me not to believe a deep closer will win.


One reason why its so tough to cap this years race is because even some front runners are capable of rating............if everyone is scared to go out front like in 2002, look out but I highly doubt that will happen.
jheikura PM jheikura
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Posted: 4/22/2012 10:57:33 PM
I think trinny and Indy are going to set a very fast pace, still can't get away from Hansen for some reason, union rags is another one, he will have good value and his 3rd in the Florida derby was not his fault.  he has good closing ability and I may put him in a box with Hansen and dullahan.
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/22/2012 11:31:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jheikura:

I think trinny and Indy are going to set a very fast pace, still can't get away from Hansen for some reason, union rags is another one, he will have good value and his 3rd in the Florida derby was not his fault.  he has good closing ability and I may put him in a box with Hansen and dullahan.


I know im in the minority, but I dont think Union Rags will do much in the derby.......Dullahan scares me a little & so does Hansen but I definitely want to see the post draws before finalizing my play.......
Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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Posted: 4/23/2012 12:18:51 AM
After watching race replays, looking at pace figures, and looking over the dosage and PF's for the contenders, this is my Derby short list. Workouts and post positions will be the next elimination phase, and I'll use the sheets before punching any tickets.

Win Contenders:

Alpha, Dullahan, Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Gemologist

Possible underneath horses:

Daddy Long Legs, Union Rags, Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, I'll Have Another
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/23/2012 12:40:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

After watching race replays, looking at pace figures, and looking over the dosage and PF's for the contenders, this is my Derby short list. Workouts and post positions will be the next elimination phase, and I'll use the sheets before punching any tickets.

Win Contenders:

Alpha, Dullahan, Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Gemologist

Possible underneath horses:

Daddy Long Legs, Union Rags, Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino, I'll Have Another


I like your win list except for Alpha............like your exotic horses as well..........
howzuck PM howzuck
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Posted: 4/23/2012 5:53:04 AM
PTB, I like Johnnyg's list too - just want to say Alpha may have better chance than you might think (ran close to Gemologist with a bad start, although he is also an "underneath" on my list).  I've also heard that the Europeans really want to win this race for the first time.  I really like that Daddy Long Legs won the prestigious UAE Derby and also that they didn't try that hard in the BC Juvenile with him.  It might be a bad sign to like a horse off the radar screen, but DDL will be close to 30-1 in a year which the Derby seems very wide open, just a thought.  Yes, I also need to see post positions, weather reports closer to Derby Days, final entrants and jockeys, but again, I do think there will be wacky prices, esp. on the exotics, you gotta take a shot on some bombs in this 20 horse race, luck maybe a little more important than "form" for the Derby.... 
angrybarber PM angrybarber
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Posted: 4/23/2012 10:24:42 AM
does anyone know where to find statistics for the KD? 
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/23/2012 11:24:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by howzuck:

PTB, I like Johnnyg's list too - just want to say Alpha may have better chance than you might think (ran close to Gemologist with a bad start, although he is also an "underneath" on my list).  I've also heard that the Europeans really want to win this race for the first time.  I really like that Daddy Long Legs won the prestigious UAE Derby and also that they didn't try that hard in the BC Juvenile with him.  It might be a bad sign to like a horse off the radar screen, but DDL will be close to 30-1 in a year which the Derby seems very wide open, just a thought.  Yes, I also need to see post positions, weather reports closer to Derby Days, final entrants and jockeys, but again, I do think there will be wacky prices, esp. on the exotics, you gotta take a shot on some bombs in this 20 horse race, luck maybe a little more important than "form" for the Derby.... 


A lot of luck is needed & the "stars" gotta align if you will for the horse to win. At least now a days, there were years that certain horses were gonna win no matter what but this year isnt like that.........
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/23/2012 11:24:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

does anyone know where to find statistics for the KD? 


What kind of statistics? Are you looking for past performances of the derby in other years or something else?
Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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Posted: 4/23/2012 1:59:38 PM
Here is dosage, and PF figures which is always a good read.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2012/2012_derby_contenders.htm

Here are the Brisnet PP's for this years horses.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505u.pdf



PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/23/2012 2:42:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

Here is dosage, and PF figures which is always a good read.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2012/2012_derby_contenders.htm

Here are the Brisnet PP's for this years horses.

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/dby0505u.pdf





After reading chef-da-race, what horse does he like because I was confused after reading all that............
Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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Posted: 4/23/2012 2:58:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:



After reading chef-da-race, what horse does he like because I was confused after reading all that............


Well it's up to interpretation because there are a bunch of angles to gather from that information.

The horses that continually show up in the top 5 in most of the angles are Creative Cause and Gemologist although Hansen, Alpha, Bode, and Dullahan are also well represented.
angrybarber PM angrybarber
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Posted: 4/23/2012 4:13:33 PM
im looking for any info i can get jockey stats, trainers stats, pp stats. thanks for the links johnnyg
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/23/2012 4:30:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:



Well it's up to interpretation because there are a bunch of angles to gather from that information.

The horses that continually show up in the top 5 in most of the angles are Creative Cause and Gemologist although Hansen, Alpha, Bode, and Dullahan are also well represented.


CC & Gem are the two ive been looking at for past 2 weeks but I like CC a little more. The others are also playable except for Alpha, I will not play him...........
Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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Posted: 4/23/2012 4:40:39 PM
Starts
Win Place Show 4th
1 35 1 0 3 4
2 35 2 2 5 1
3 35 3 1 3 2
4 35 2 4 1 3
5 35 4 4 0 3
6 35 1 2 0 1
7 35 2 1 0 6
8 35 4 3 3 3
9 35 0 1 3 3
10 35 6 1 5 2
11 35 1 2 0 1
12 35 0 1 2 0
13 35 1 5 3 4
14 35 0 2 2 0
15 35 3 2 1 0
16 34 3 0 3 0
17 34 0 1 0 1
18 18 1 2 0 0
19 15 0 1 0 0
20 8 1 0 1 1
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/24/2012 9:58:19 AM
Here is a trend for the past 20 years:

18 of the past 20 derby winners had at least 1 workout over the Churchill track going into the derby..............


howzuck PM howzuck
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Posted: 4/24/2012 12:53:10 PM
Yes, PTB, but how many have worked out at CD and lost?  When you look at the KD, there are so mnay factors to consider, it's easy to connect cause and effect.  Is this coincidence?  Who are the 2 that won who didn't work out at CD and won?  Maybe they were very good horses who didn't need to?
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/24/2012 2:14:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by howzuck:

Yes, PTB, but how many have worked out at CD and lost?  When you look at the KD, there are so mnay factors to consider, it's easy to connect cause and effect.  Is this coincidence?  Who are the 2 that won who didn't work out at CD and won?  Maybe they were very good horses who didn't need to?


Funny Cide was one because I had him, thats how I remember but would have to look up the other one. I dont look too much into the workouts as others do but they do help...........
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