Definitely a wide open race...........there are no Smarty Jones or Big Brown in this race......although we do have an undefeated runner in Gemologist & will be under rated & at great odds come May 5th.
PTB, why do you think he will be underrated?
Pletcher, Castellano, bred up and down to be anything and undefeated. On the contrary, I'm thinking a gross underlay. I wouldn't say he's overrated, he'll have the opportunity to decide that when he runs for the roses.
He will be a co-favorite at around 5/6 -1. My thoughts. For what it's worth 5/6-1 may be a gift on that horse come 6:30 p.m. on 5/5.
Definitely a wide open race...........there are no Smarty Jones or Big Brown in this race......although we do have an undefeated runner in Gemologist & will be under rated & at great odds come May 5th.
PTB, why do you think he will be underrated?
Pletcher, Castellano, bred up and down to be anything and undefeated. On the contrary, I'm thinking a gross underlay. I wouldn't say he's overrated, he'll have the opportunity to decide that when he runs for the roses.
He will be a co-favorite at around 5/6 -1. My thoughts. For what it's worth 5/6-1 may be a gift on that horse come 6:30 p.m. on 5/5.
Pletcher, Castellano, bred up and down to be anything and undefeated. On the contrary, I'm thinking a gross underlay. I wouldn't say he's overrated, he'll have the opportunity to decide that when he runs for the roses.
He will be a co-favorite at around 5/6 -1. My thoughts. For what it's worth 5/6-1 may be a gift on that horse come 6:30 p.m. on 5/5.
HB
I want to see how much DRF & the other media outlets talk about Gemologist.........I think they will be focused on Bodemeister & Union Rags & will be over shadowed by them but I could be wrong & you're right, 5 or 6-1 on this horse is great odds.
Pletcher, Castellano, bred up and down to be anything and undefeated. On the contrary, I'm thinking a gross underlay. I wouldn't say he's overrated, he'll have the opportunity to decide that when he runs for the roses.
He will be a co-favorite at around 5/6 -1. My thoughts. For what it's worth 5/6-1 may be a gift on that horse come 6:30 p.m. on 5/5.
HB
I want to see how much DRF & the other media outlets talk about Gemologist.........I think they will be focused on Bodemeister & Union Rags & will be over shadowed by them but I could be wrong & you're right, 5 or 6-1 on this horse is great odds.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's pump the brakes on that one my friend. Unless I'm taking your statement out of context.
HB
Holy, I am not talking about on Super Star horse. Yes, there have been way better, but I am speaking about the overall field. You have 10 horse that can win the triple crown here if everything breaks right. Still love Gem and Bode.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's pump the brakes on that one my friend. Unless I'm taking your statement out of context.
HB
Holy, I am not talking about on Super Star horse. Yes, there have been way better, but I am speaking about the overall field. You have 10 horse that can win the triple crown here if everything breaks right. Still love Gem and Bode.
Fair enough, but being the only undefeated 3yo in the race isn't going to help you much.
Bode crushing that field and UR's excuses are what's helping you.
HB
Very true.......yes Bode won but how he won, by 9 impressive lengths over Secret & the first 6 furlongs was an amazing time he clocked..........I thought Secret would be able to get the 1 1/4 distance but after watching him at Oaklawn, I dont think he can.........Bode imo will be the post time favorite.............
Fair enough, but being the only undefeated 3yo in the race isn't going to help you much.
Bode crushing that field and UR's excuses are what's helping you.
HB
Very true.......yes Bode won but how he won, by 9 impressive lengths over Secret & the first 6 furlongs was an amazing time he clocked..........I thought Secret would be able to get the 1 1/4 distance but after watching him at Oaklawn, I dont think he can.........Bode imo will be the post time favorite.............
My main concern with Secret is that his figures going long don't compare with those at one turn distances.
I'm thinking Bode & Gemologist will be nose and nose for favoritism. Hard for me to give it to Bode when he hasn't shown the same stalking ability that Gem has.
My main concern with Secret is that his figures going long don't compare with those at one turn distances.
I'm thinking Bode & Gemologist will be nose and nose for favoritism. Hard for me to give it to Bode when he hasn't shown the same stalking ability that Gem has.
Question: How often does a non raced two year old enter the Derby? Is this meaningless based on sample size?
A lot of time to cap still but based on tactical speed in a large field I'm leaning Gem and Bode if the posts work out in their favor.
Union Rags is impressive(saw him live at the Juvenile) but tactical speed worries me in this large a field and I see him a much bigger threat in the Belmont and future Breeders classics.
Question: How often does a non raced two year old enter the Derby? Is this meaningless based on sample size?
A lot of time to cap still but based on tactical speed in a large field I'm leaning Gem and Bode if the posts work out in their favor.
Union Rags is impressive(saw him live at the Juvenile) but tactical speed worries me in this large a field and I see him a much bigger threat in the Belmont and future Breeders classics.
Question: How often does a non raced two year old enter the Derby? Is this meaningless based on sample size?
A lot of time to cap still but based on tactical speed in a large field I'm leaning Gem and Bode if the posts work out in their favor.
Union Rags is impressive(saw him live at the Juvenile) but tactical speed worries me in this large a field and I see him a much bigger threat in the Belmont and future Breeders classics.
Horses with tactical speed have a better chance at winning the derby.........they get out of the gate better & sit exactly where they want to be unless you run like Monarchos..............Funny Cide had pretty good tactical speed & if you watch the derby, he gets out quickly & sits behind the front runners until its time to make "the move".............
Question: How often does a non raced two year old enter the Derby? Is this meaningless based on sample size?
A lot of time to cap still but based on tactical speed in a large field I'm leaning Gem and Bode if the posts work out in their favor.
Union Rags is impressive(saw him live at the Juvenile) but tactical speed worries me in this large a field and I see him a much bigger threat in the Belmont and future Breeders classics.
Horses with tactical speed have a better chance at winning the derby.........they get out of the gate better & sit exactly where they want to be unless you run like Monarchos..............Funny Cide had pretty good tactical speed & if you watch the derby, he gets out quickly & sits behind the front runners until its time to make "the move".............
Agreed. Thats why I loved Nehro last year. The race didnt set up for him based on pace so he made the move early and went for it but just couldnt hold off AK in the end.
What dont you like about Take Charge Indy? I havent studied him yet but cant ignore horses that run Big in the Fla Derby.
Agreed. Thats why I loved Nehro last year. The race didnt set up for him based on pace so he made the move early and went for it but just couldnt hold off AK in the end.
What dont you like about Take Charge Indy? I havent studied him yet but cant ignore horses that run Big in the Fla Derby.
Agreed. Thats why I loved Nehro last year. The race didnt set up for him based on pace so he made the move early and went for it but just couldnt hold off AK in the end.
What dont you like about Take Charge Indy? I havent studied him yet but cant ignore horses that run Big in the Fla Derby.
TCI isnt a bad horse but he is not on the level with the top tier horses imo.......he ran 4th to Dullahan & Opyimizer.......ran 5th to Hansen, Union Rags & Creative Cause..........after a 2 month layoff, he came back to run 2 nice races so he may be coming into his own, he did beat Union Rags........... then again, I dont think UR will be anywhere near the winner in the derby.
Agreed. Thats why I loved Nehro last year. The race didnt set up for him based on pace so he made the move early and went for it but just couldnt hold off AK in the end.
What dont you like about Take Charge Indy? I havent studied him yet but cant ignore horses that run Big in the Fla Derby.
TCI isnt a bad horse but he is not on the level with the top tier horses imo.......he ran 4th to Dullahan & Opyimizer.......ran 5th to Hansen, Union Rags & Creative Cause..........after a 2 month layoff, he came back to run 2 nice races so he may be coming into his own, he did beat Union Rags........... then again, I dont think UR will be anywhere near the winner in the derby.
for what its worth the 2 races Bode came in 2nd he wasnt on the lead it seems to me that could be a huge problem in the derby considering the other main speed in the race hansen could very easily take the lead from him, depending on post draws obviously. and we know hansen likes churchill.
for what its worth the 2 races Bode came in 2nd he wasnt on the lead it seems to me that could be a huge problem in the derby considering the other main speed in the race hansen could very easily take the lead from him, depending on post draws obviously. and we know hansen likes churchill.
and even if he does get the lead hes gonna have pressure the whole way, Bode will be on my tickets but not to win.IMO inexperience will and not being able to win while rating will hurt him.
and even if he does get the lead hes gonna have pressure the whole way, Bode will be on my tickets but not to win.IMO inexperience will and not being able to win while rating will hurt him.
Good conversation but it will all come down to that last fateful furlong Who will get that last 1/8 to the wire.
From video watching, Creative Cause and Union Rags have looked the best at/near the wire. There doesn't seem to be some upfront barnburning speed this time but a bunch of raters. This will be a very tactical race where an experienced jockey will be the key. I wasn't impressed with Gem's races so I favor CA horses. Just my two cents...
Good conversation but it will all come down to that last fateful furlong Who will get that last 1/8 to the wire.
From video watching, Creative Cause and Union Rags have looked the best at/near the wire. There doesn't seem to be some upfront barnburning speed this time but a bunch of raters. This will be a very tactical race where an experienced jockey will be the key. I wasn't impressed with Gem's races so I favor CA horses. Just my two cents...
Bodemeister should have the lead before the top of the stretch but thats when the other talented horses kick in...........I wanna see the post positions but gotta wait until the Wed before the race, grr.........
Bodemeister should have the lead before the top of the stretch but thats when the other talented horses kick in...........I wanna see the post positions but gotta wait until the Wed before the race, grr.........
PTB, I still think that CC is sittin on a huge one, Checked out that san felipe video and I just sense these CALi horses are faster overall I won with Hansen in Juve but he really wore down in that last 1/8 where UR was coming on like a freight train in his prep. He will ONLY improve I agree with you on that non racing as a 2 yo may hold up again ANd that we WILL have a Monarchos style closing winner. Jockey style research? You are the stat king when it comes to these angles
PTB, I still think that CC is sittin on a huge one, Checked out that san felipe video and I just sense these CALi horses are faster overall I won with Hansen in Juve but he really wore down in that last 1/8 where UR was coming on like a freight train in his prep. He will ONLY improve I agree with you on that non racing as a 2 yo may hold up again ANd that we WILL have a Monarchos style closing winner. Jockey style research? You are the stat king when it comes to these angles
Bode's fig for the Arkansas Derby adjusted to a 108. Alternation, winner of the Oaklawn Handicap for older horses (G1 quality) at the same distance just a race before, had his fig adjusted down to 97.
Bode got his last 1/8 in sub 12 seconds and if you watch the replay again, really took off at the 1/16th pole. He will be the fastest horse in the race just like Big Brown was in 2008 and BB crushed them all.
Big Brown never showed the ability to rate in the KD. And had just one maiden race (on turf) as a 2 year old and just 3 races overall going into the Derby.
I would prefer an outside post for Bode (not 20 like BB had, but 13-17th would be fine IMO). His early foot and high cruising speed guarantees him a great position as long as he's not in the 1-4 hole.
Bode's fig for the Arkansas Derby adjusted to a 108. Alternation, winner of the Oaklawn Handicap for older horses (G1 quality) at the same distance just a race before, had his fig adjusted down to 97.
Bode got his last 1/8 in sub 12 seconds and if you watch the replay again, really took off at the 1/16th pole. He will be the fastest horse in the race just like Big Brown was in 2008 and BB crushed them all.
Big Brown never showed the ability to rate in the KD. And had just one maiden race (on turf) as a 2 year old and just 3 races overall going into the Derby.
I would prefer an outside post for Bode (not 20 like BB had, but 13-17th would be fine IMO). His early foot and high cruising speed guarantees him a great position as long as he's not in the 1-4 hole.
Care to elaborate about the speed on top of speed? Hansen, Bode and .... I mean I wouldn't say 23 and change and 46 and change is blazing speed for bode and hansen. There are a lot of years where there are horses coming into the derby who run 22, 45 type fractions. I have actually been trying to find who the speed is this year.
All I'm trying to say is that not many front runners win the KD. Like I have been saying all along, post postion is crucial. If a speed horse draws to the outside of Bode and presses him some, I would be shocked if he hangs on. He definitely could be the best horse but speed is usually not favorable in the Derby. That's all I'm saying.
Care to elaborate about the speed on top of speed? Hansen, Bode and .... I mean I wouldn't say 23 and change and 46 and change is blazing speed for bode and hansen. There are a lot of years where there are horses coming into the derby who run 22, 45 type fractions. I have actually been trying to find who the speed is this year.
All I'm trying to say is that not many front runners win the KD. Like I have been saying all along, post postion is crucial. If a speed horse draws to the outside of Bode and presses him some, I would be shocked if he hangs on. He definitely could be the best horse but speed is usually not favorable in the Derby. That's all I'm saying.
Why is everyone so quick to assume Bode needs the lead? He was a much better/relaxed horse without blinkers Saturday. Big Brown went wire to wire in 3 starts before the Derby then rated and won easy.
If no one wants to go in the Derby, 23 and change 46 and change is nothing for a horse like Bode. This horse makes it look sooo easy just like Big Brown did, that high cruising speed like Curlin. Curlin drew the #2 hole in the Derby and by the time he realized the race started he was 8 lengths back behind a wall of 12 horses. The key for Bode will be an outside post position, be it 12 or 20.
The more I look at it the more I see 2008 all over again.
Why is everyone so quick to assume Bode needs the lead? He was a much better/relaxed horse without blinkers Saturday. Big Brown went wire to wire in 3 starts before the Derby then rated and won easy.
If no one wants to go in the Derby, 23 and change 46 and change is nothing for a horse like Bode. This horse makes it look sooo easy just like Big Brown did, that high cruising speed like Curlin. Curlin drew the #2 hole in the Derby and by the time he realized the race started he was 8 lengths back behind a wall of 12 horses. The key for Bode will be an outside post position, be it 12 or 20.
The more I look at it the more I see 2008 all over again.
Diabolical- Bode ran second in the san felipe breaking from the inside and sitting of the lead in his first race around two turns. Who says he has to be on the lead? Just because he took advantage of some chump horses in the Ark Derby doesn't mean he can't sit off the lead. Hell we didn't see Big Brown rate a single time before the Ky Derby but he was able to do it when it counted. There is a difference between unharnessable speed and having a high cruising speed. Bode was well within his realm running those fractions in the Ark derby. We watched him run 23, 46 effortlessly and he closed faster then almost any of the horses we have seen prep. I guess you just have to decide if Bode MUST have the lead or if he has the ability to sit off the lead. If he must have the lead he will have a tough time winning but I wouldn't go as far as saying speed is not favorable in the derby. A lot of the speed horses have been there in the end. Just a few off the top of my head. Lionheart, war emblem, hard spun, Smarty was pretty fast, big brown
Diabolical- Bode ran second in the san felipe breaking from the inside and sitting of the lead in his first race around two turns. Who says he has to be on the lead? Just because he took advantage of some chump horses in the Ark Derby doesn't mean he can't sit off the lead. Hell we didn't see Big Brown rate a single time before the Ky Derby but he was able to do it when it counted. There is a difference between unharnessable speed and having a high cruising speed. Bode was well within his realm running those fractions in the Ark derby. We watched him run 23, 46 effortlessly and he closed faster then almost any of the horses we have seen prep. I guess you just have to decide if Bode MUST have the lead or if he has the ability to sit off the lead. If he must have the lead he will have a tough time winning but I wouldn't go as far as saying speed is not favorable in the derby. A lot of the speed horses have been there in the end. Just a few off the top of my head. Lionheart, war emblem, hard spun, Smarty was pretty fast, big brown
Big Brown did rate in a N1X at GP going a mile in his first race off the shelf in 3/08. I do get your point though Fat. Super Saver never rated successfully until his Derby win.
I don't think rating is the question. They ALL have to rate in some respect. The bigger question is, what pace are you "rating" off? If these horses are rating off 22 3/5 and 45 and change, then they'll all be scraped off the track.
Big Brown did rate in a N1X at GP going a mile in his first race off the shelf in 3/08. I do get your point though Fat. Super Saver never rated successfully until his Derby win.
I don't think rating is the question. They ALL have to rate in some respect. The bigger question is, what pace are you "rating" off? If these horses are rating off 22 3/5 and 45 and change, then they'll all be scraped off the track.
johnnyg, how are you even comparing the 2008 derby to this year Big Brown beat a weak field that doesnt even compare to this one. as a matter of fact Big Brown never beat 1 horse thats even wort talking about.
johnnyg, how are you even comparing the 2008 derby to this year Big Brown beat a weak field that doesnt even compare to this one. as a matter of fact Big Brown never beat 1 horse thats even wort talking about.
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