Messages

Forum Index : Horse Racing : Messages
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Florida Derby---post your picks
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 12290
Location:
#1
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:38:57 AM

 

I don’t know why this race has come out a bit flat for me after having such high expectations for it, but maybe it’s because, after analyzing the contestants, it comes down to a one-horse race. There are other talents in the field aside from 6-5 ML fave Union Rags and the second choice at 2-1, El Padrino, but so many of these are ho-hum.

 

#6 Union Rags…..In several Derby trails in recent years, we’ve seen the “Flavor of the month” horse (Pyro, No Biz Like Shobiz and Bellamy Road come to mind), but Union Rags doesn’t fit that profile. This is a real horse and a real contender and I, for one, relish the thought of seeing his rematch with Hansen the first Saturday in May. In Union Rags’ three-year old debut in the Fountain of Youth, he seemingly toyed with the field in stalking fashion before coming three-wide to win by four lengths over News Pending in a time of 142.68. I think the stretch to 1-1/8 miles will do him good in this race and will serve as his table setter for the Kentucky Derby.

 

#8 El Padrino……I have a bit of a problem with horses who win Derby preps at Fairgrounds as the New Orleans track seems to have a speed bias that often doesn’t translate to other dirt tracks. Could it might be the case here with El Padrino? That said, he did win at Gulfstream on Jan. 29 on a sealed surface rated as good recording his best speed figure (100), so what do I know? This is one of Pletcher’s best, so you know he’ll be ready. Based on his Risen Star finish and his lone race at 1-1/8 miles, can he beat Union Rags at this distance?

 

#3 Take Charge Indy…..He seems to be headed for the “classic underachiever” category based on his form in recent races. Check the track notes for the evidence. If he is going to be part of the field for the 2012 Kentucky Derby, then today is the day he will need to show up in a big way.

 

#2 News Pending….A lot of potential here and I think with some racing luck, he can handle this field. His two races on turf at this distance show that he can handle the footage, but can he best Union Rags, which he couldn’t do in the Fountain of Youth?

 

#9 Reveron….I like the switch to Elvis and I think his early speed will help him to get out of the gate and tuck inside. I don’t see him stealing this race on the front end, but he is 6/3-1 2 lifetime, including a win at this track, so a decent piece isn’t out of the question. Note his Sam F. Davis effort where he finished third just 1-1/4 back.

 

#4 Neck N’ Neck….He is a very decent horse who can take a share and should be considered in the mix.

 

My picks:

 

#6 Union Rags to win

 

$15 ex straight: 6-2

 

$10 ex straight: 6-8

 

$5 ex key: 6/3,9

 

$4 tri wheel: 6/2,3,8,9/2,3,4,8,9

 

 

quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10681
Location: Massachusetts
#2
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:43:38 AM
good luck Mikey
quote
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 12290
Location:
#3
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:47:07 AM
Thanks Atlas.....same to you. Who do you like here?
quote
atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 10681
Location: Massachusetts
#4
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:55:18 AM
full disclosure I took a bit of a look at it last night but not in depth.  i am going to be out all day.  i had a hard time getting past UR and El Padrino.  obviously both will be bet.  Take Charge is a wildcard.  not sure if any of the price horses can improve enough (at least what I see on paper).  my gut says Castellano sits behind a horse or two and at the top of the lane he says f&*k it and trys to steal the race and frenchie brings it late and we find out who is best in the final sixteenth. 
quote
bill1947
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bill1947
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 4205
Location: Florida
#5
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:59:43 AM
GL 
quote
pittsburghphil
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
pittsburghphil
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 4132
Location:
#6
Posted: 3/31/2012 12:43:26 PM
                couldnt agree more with most of your stuff mikey.  really hard to see anything but 2-6-8  being around at this distance.  6 is  a monster and im a chalk hater. 8 will running late for sure, 2 news pending looks like a grinder and has great upside but maybe not today.   not sure how im playing this though  ..sorry..
quote
gambler315
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gambler315
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 7494
Location:
#7
Posted: 3/31/2012 1:22:58 PM
Looks chalky so I'll pass.
quote
JSLU1217 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag |
JSLU1217
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 205
Location: Ohio
#8
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:07:30 PM
UR then El Padrino.  Chalky
quote
vetdrm
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
vetdrm
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 8896
Location: Antarctica
#9
Posted: 3/31/2012 2:08:57 PM
Well take a shot with Z Camelot at 50-1

Maybe Rags doesnt fire today and El-Taquila doesnt impress me all that much to back him at those kinda odds.

$1 ex box all 5

$1 ex box all 9

gl guys and thanks Mikey
quote
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 12290
Location:
#10
Posted: 4/1/2012 8:46:52 AM

Well that was intersting! Shaping up as a verfy interesting KY Derby!

Let's see what the Wood produces.

quote
Forum Index : Horse Racing : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.