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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: San Felipe picks--post here
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
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#1
Posted: 3/10/2012 1:00:46 PM

 

This is one fine looking field despite some of the speed figures being, perhaps, California-track biased.

Let’s start with #2, Baffert’s  Bodemeister, the 3-1 ML favorite. Sporting a Beyer of 101 and a 9-1/4 length win in his maiden breaker in his last race, he wired from the bell and probably could have circled the field and passed the other 7 horses again! Bejarano gets the call. However, this is a much better field and there will be others to force the pace, but in the pilot I trust.

Baffert also has #6 Liason in this one. Aside from unseating his rider (Bejarano) after clipping heals in his 3-year old debut, he has shown what a true contender he is. Throw out the debacle in the last one and this guy is 4/3-0-1 with nearly $500,000 in earnings as a two-year old. He’s beaten the tough Rousing Sermon, a contender in this race, twice. NOTE: Baffert races this Indian Charlie colt for the first time without blinkers. An appealing 6-1 on the ML….

Trainer Mike Harrington has two in this race with #7 Creative Cause one of them. (Harrington’s Empire Way out of the #10 post to be scratched? I wouldn’t be surprised.). His work coming into this is solid. I will toss his 4-horse field third place finish the sprint last out as prep for this.  He is out of Giant’s Causeway and will run all day. Let’s not forget that he finished third to Hansen and Union Rags in the BC Juve. He should be there.

#3 American Act has improved steadily with a career high speed figure in his last race, the San Vicente (G-2) when he beat Creative Cause and lost by a nose hair to the contentious Drill. For the juicy 8-1 ML price, you get Marty Pedroza and local sharpie trainer Jack Carava. These two are 18% wins in tandem. While I am not a big believer in the bounce, this might be the day he regresses. That said, I think he contends.

#4 Midnight Transfer is a good one and he will be tested here.  He hasn’t faced as good as these and that’s a bit of a knock. Nonetheless, the local handicapper has installed him at 5-1 ML, so take a close look.

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mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
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Posted: 3/10/2012 1:01:32 PM

#8 Rousing Sermon has a ton of talent and should compete here. His effort in the Lewis was sort of ho-hum and he faded placing third through a DQ, but his 2-year old campaign showed that he has the potential. He tends to go wide, which costs him ground, so I expect that jockey Talamo will try to move in a bit against a field that has some real speed. I don’t think he can win, but he can certainly figure.

#10 Empire Way drew badly and I will not be surprised to Harrington scratch him. He’s had some racing trouble in his four career starts and this post with those inside moving to save ground doesn’t help his cause. This son of Empire Maker might not do it today, but I think he has a very big future.

#9 Tiz Point……I heard this morning on the Dave Johnson-Bill Finley XM radio program that Gomez took off his mounts today due to his heel injury. While Tiz Point has had much success (6/2-2-1), he doesn’t seem to have the speed the rest of these possess. Unless it breaks down near the end and he comes ripping up the middle, I see only a minor piece for him. The problem with this scenario is that he likes it upfront and out of the 9 hole will probably get out early to contend, so move at your own risk.

If there is a big upset in this race, I think it will be #1 Blingo who would be the one to do the deed. This Artie Schilling gelding appears to be headed for the grass full time at some point in his career. So far he has handled affairs properly in his two race career. Last out in the Cash Call he finished 6th, but just 2-3/4 behind winner Liason after being bumped hard at the start in a 13 horse field. His maiden was won on the turf and the Cash Call was on the poly, but I have to trust trainer John Shirreffs’ judgment. I am not crazy about the one post, but I think Blingo can transition to the dirt with jockey Mike Smith, who knows every inch of this track.

 

My picks:

#1 Blingo to win and place

$12 exacta box 1,2,7

$6 exacta wheel: 1,2,7/3,6

$2 tri wheel: 1,2,7/1,2,3,6,7/1,2,3,4,6,7,8,10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
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#3
Posted: 3/10/2012 1:45:16 PM
great to see you Mikey

good luck today.  still mulling this one over.
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mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
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#4
Posted: 3/10/2012 3:43:18 PM
looking forward to seeing your picks Atlas
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handikapper1
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#5
Posted: 3/10/2012 3:50:05 PM

BODEMIESTER  TO THE BANK

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pittsburghphil
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#6
Posted: 3/10/2012 7:33:04 PM
             boxing  6-7-8-10.   trifecta.    not  using  bodemeister
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spliquid
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#7
Posted: 3/10/2012 7:36:03 PM
6- W

6/7/2/5,10 Spr
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Gotitans317 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Bodog |
Gotitans317
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#8
Posted: 3/10/2012 7:37:25 PM

Liaison!!! $30 WP $60 S

 

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mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
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#9
Posted: 3/10/2012 7:38:06 PM

Good luck boys!

these odds for some of these are staggering! American Act 30-1: Empire Way is 14-1!

BOXCARS?

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mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
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#10
Posted: 3/10/2012 7:54:56 PM

#7 Creative Cause

#2 Bodemeister

#4 Midnight Transfer

#6 Liason

while my guy, #1 Blingo, didn't fire, I am happy with the tri and exacta that I eeked out.

 

$147 ont he the $2 tri

$22.20 on the $2 exacta

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atlasshrugged send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
atlasshrugged
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#11
Posted: 3/10/2012 7:58:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

#7 Creative Cause

#2 Bodemeister

#4 Midnight Transfer

#6 Liason

while my guy, #1 Blingo, didn't fire, I am happy with the tri and exacta that I eeked out.

 

$147 ont he the $2 tri

$22.20 on the $2 exacta




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spliquid
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spliquid
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Posted: 3/10/2012 8:03:27 PM
Nice job Mikey
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mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
mikeyp1
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#13
Posted: 3/10/2012 8:11:59 PM
thanks guys....let's hope we can say the same on DERBY day
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