Oregon is 18th in 2 point %, and 37th in 3 point %. They have a
variety of guys who can score from anywhere. These guys are too fast
and athletic, too versatile, too explosive for UNC to contain
consistently enough. UNC's defense in front of the rim is actually
relatively vulnerable, when compared with their rebounding prowess. They
are 73rd in opposing 2 point % and 157th in blocks. Perhaps more
importantly, they are only 173rd in turnovers. So, Oregon will have
time. They have the time and talent to score enough to cover.
I
emphasize Oregon's talent because they tend to play at their opponent's
levels. I feel safe backing Oregon as underdogs especially after they
showed up and surprised Kansas, not ever letting Kansas have a chance at
winning. UNC, because of their strong interior, provides a more
difficult matchup than Kansas, so I expect this game to be closer, and I
think Oregon has a shot at winning su. The most crucial advantage for
Oregon lies in the perimeter. UNC is 115th in 3 point offensive % while
Oregon's perimeter defense is 16th. They are one of the best blocking
teams in the nation because of the athleticism of Bell. So, defensively
for Oregon, I think they can afford to focus on not allowing UNC to take
over the interior. UNC does not have the weapons to hurt Oregon from
behind the arc while Oregon has the ability to defend the arc, while
still applying some extra effort to defend the interior. Jordan Bell,
without Boucher, is Oregon's main hope. In his last approximately 150
minutes of basketball, he has only committed 4 fouls--and the opponents
that Oregon faced within that time included some tough and physical
squads, such as Rhode Island and an Arizona squad that is 48th in
drawing fouls. I am confident that Bell will avoid trouble and maintain
an athletic and lengthy presence in the interior, while other defenders
continue to step up, especially without having to worry all too much
about UNC's perimeter attack.
UNC will win the rebound battle,
but this won't be decisive because Oregon has the guard play and defense
to still cover, and maybe win SU. Take Oregon +5
Oregon is 18th in 2 point %, and 37th in 3 point %. They have a
variety of guys who can score from anywhere. These guys are too fast
and athletic, too versatile, too explosive for UNC to contain
consistently enough. UNC's defense in front of the rim is actually
relatively vulnerable, when compared with their rebounding prowess. They
are 73rd in opposing 2 point % and 157th in blocks. Perhaps more
importantly, they are only 173rd in turnovers. So, Oregon will have
time. They have the time and talent to score enough to cover.
I
emphasize Oregon's talent because they tend to play at their opponent's
levels. I feel safe backing Oregon as underdogs especially after they
showed up and surprised Kansas, not ever letting Kansas have a chance at
winning. UNC, because of their strong interior, provides a more
difficult matchup than Kansas, so I expect this game to be closer, and I
think Oregon has a shot at winning su. The most crucial advantage for
Oregon lies in the perimeter. UNC is 115th in 3 point offensive % while
Oregon's perimeter defense is 16th. They are one of the best blocking
teams in the nation because of the athleticism of Bell. So, defensively
for Oregon, I think they can afford to focus on not allowing UNC to take
over the interior. UNC does not have the weapons to hurt Oregon from
behind the arc while Oregon has the ability to defend the arc, while
still applying some extra effort to defend the interior. Jordan Bell,
without Boucher, is Oregon's main hope. In his last approximately 150
minutes of basketball, he has only committed 4 fouls--and the opponents
that Oregon faced within that time included some tough and physical
squads, such as Rhode Island and an Arizona squad that is 48th in
drawing fouls. I am confident that Bell will avoid trouble and maintain
an athletic and lengthy presence in the interior, while other defenders
continue to step up, especially without having to worry all too much
about UNC's perimeter attack.
UNC will win the rebound battle,
but this won't be decisive because Oregon has the guard play and defense
to still cover, and maybe win SU. Take Oregon +5
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