Everybody is buzzing about South Carolina's defense. South
Carolina's defense is justifiably second in the nation. Not only are
they 4th in forcing turnovers, but they also have a strong half-court
defense. Despite the rate at which they force turnovers, teams average
17.9 seconds per possession, 298th in the NCAA. With a top-10 perimeter
defense, and top 30 interior defense, not many of those shots go in
either. Gonzaga would seem statistically to be a team equipped to
protect the ball, led by one of the most highly rated point guards in
Williams-Goss. They are also 33rd in turnovers allowed. However, they
have a conference which is generally unable to apply significant
pressure. Whenever Gonzaga faces applied pressure, they have struggled.
Vs BYU, they lost 79-71 in a game that was not even close to going over
the 164 point total. In that game, they turned the ball over 16 times.
Against Northwestern, they escaped with a victory, despite late
Northwestern pressure, that amounted to 14 turnovers for Gonzaga.
Gonzaga barely survived West Virginia, despite turning it over 16 times.
I am not convinced in Gonzaga's ability to be secure with the ball
because they have yet to show that they can handle pressure. Gonzaga
does have a strong interior, but it is not just the guards who have been
turning it over. Gonzaga has been unable to get settled in offense and
establish a rhythm against teams that apply pressure.
But
Gonzaga's defense is actually better, ranked first. They don't apply
pressure, they won't force many turnovers. Their opponents average 18.2
seconds per possession, which is 328th in the NCAA. South Carolina has
enjoyed some high-scoring efforts, especially in the second half of
games. They scored 44 in the second half vs Florida, they scored 88
against Duke and 93 against Marquette. A significant part of that
scoring has been forcing turnovers allowing for points in transition.
But the most significant part of that scoring has been their ability to
bully opposing teams in the interior. In the three games in which they
went over the point total, they were able to drive straight to the
basket without much of a problem. Their half-court offense is
horrendous: 294th in two-point %, and 245th in three-point %. This is
why they wait until the second half to score. They had about 34 shot
attempts in the first half against Duke but only 23 points. Turnovers
gives them the opportunity to put up more shots, and then they finally,
finally, find a rhythm on offense. They are also able to dominate the
opposing rim. Against the more physical defenses, the point total went
under and they struggled to get into a rhythm offensively. They lost
64-53 in the conference game vs Alabama, they beat Baylor in the tourney
70-50, despite overachieving from behind the arc with 8 threes,
something they likely won't do against Gonzaga's 4th best perimeter
defense, which has been successfully tested against some effective
three-point shooting teams in the WCC like Santa Clara and Saint Mary's.
I
don't see how South Carolina scores on Gonzaga. Yes, they will likely
force 15 turnovers. However, they also forced 13 turnovers vs Alabama
and 16 against Baylor and the point total still went under. More
decisive, therefore, is the opposing team's physicality. South Carolina
will not be able to attack the rim successfully or otherwise establish a
rhythm offensively against the big boys that Gonzaga has to offer, 7'1
300 pound Karnowski, 7'0 230 pound Collins, even 6'9 228 pound Williams.
Gonzaga's interior is tall and big. They are first in opposing 2 point
%, so they protect the rim, and they do it without fouling--as they are
16th in opposing free throw attempts. There is good reason why SMC's
star center Landale always struggled against Gonzaga, scoring 10 points,
while committing 4 fouls in their last matchup. Even if SC does get to
the free throw line, they are 185th in FT %. So, SC will get some points
off turnovers, but I don't see how else. Gonzaga is also 45th in
opposing rebound %, so I don't foresee the kind of second-chance
opportunities for SC that they achieved against, for instance, Florida.
Gonzaga, because of their strong interior, is different from SC's
previous opponents. Gonzaga will also struggle to establish a rhythm
against SC's harassing defense. In the games where Gonzaga has put up a
significant amount of points, they have been able to keep better control
of the ball: they scored 83 against Xavier while committing only 10
turnovers. They scored 74 against a slow-paced SMC while committing only
9 turnovers. They will turn the ball over, and I don't see them
touching 70. I also don't see SC touching 70. Like with the Alabama and
Baylor games, they will not be able to force the amount of turnovers to
generate the kind of offensive production that they did against teams
with weak interior defenses.
I think Gonzaga will score more
than SC. A fancy way for saying that I think Gonzaga will win. They are
5th in offensive 2 point % and they will get SC's big men in foul
trouble, for SC is 334th in opposing FTA. So, SC's defensive
aggressiveness will get them some points on offense, but it may cost
them more. Gonzaga is a respectable 71st in FTA. They attempted 25, 32,
and 36 in their last three games and I think they get on the line
plenty. They have the edge in FT %, offensive rebound (for second-chance
points). But most importantly, they have a superior half-court offense
with the talent to score enough. These three "little" things will, on
the offensive side, help secure them the cover. Moreover, their defense,
on the other hand, will overwhelm South Carolina's meager half-court
offense. I see this playing out similarly to SC's 64-53 loss against
Bama in the Conference tournament. I recommend FG under of 138, first
half under (considering how slow SC starts off offensively, and that
Gonzaga will need time to be able to establish any sort of rhythm) and
Gonzaga -6.5.
Everybody is buzzing about South Carolina's defense. South
Carolina's defense is justifiably second in the nation. Not only are
they 4th in forcing turnovers, but they also have a strong half-court
defense. Despite the rate at which they force turnovers, teams average
17.9 seconds per possession, 298th in the NCAA. With a top-10 perimeter
defense, and top 30 interior defense, not many of those shots go in
either. Gonzaga would seem statistically to be a team equipped to
protect the ball, led by one of the most highly rated point guards in
Williams-Goss. They are also 33rd in turnovers allowed. However, they
have a conference which is generally unable to apply significant
pressure. Whenever Gonzaga faces applied pressure, they have struggled.
Vs BYU, they lost 79-71 in a game that was not even close to going over
the 164 point total. In that game, they turned the ball over 16 times.
Against Northwestern, they escaped with a victory, despite late
Northwestern pressure, that amounted to 14 turnovers for Gonzaga.
Gonzaga barely survived West Virginia, despite turning it over 16 times.
I am not convinced in Gonzaga's ability to be secure with the ball
because they have yet to show that they can handle pressure. Gonzaga
does have a strong interior, but it is not just the guards who have been
turning it over. Gonzaga has been unable to get settled in offense and
establish a rhythm against teams that apply pressure.
But
Gonzaga's defense is actually better, ranked first. They don't apply
pressure, they won't force many turnovers. Their opponents average 18.2
seconds per possession, which is 328th in the NCAA. South Carolina has
enjoyed some high-scoring efforts, especially in the second half of
games. They scored 44 in the second half vs Florida, they scored 88
against Duke and 93 against Marquette. A significant part of that
scoring has been forcing turnovers allowing for points in transition.
But the most significant part of that scoring has been their ability to
bully opposing teams in the interior. In the three games in which they
went over the point total, they were able to drive straight to the
basket without much of a problem. Their half-court offense is
horrendous: 294th in two-point %, and 245th in three-point %. This is
why they wait until the second half to score. They had about 34 shot
attempts in the first half against Duke but only 23 points. Turnovers
gives them the opportunity to put up more shots, and then they finally,
finally, find a rhythm on offense. They are also able to dominate the
opposing rim. Against the more physical defenses, the point total went
under and they struggled to get into a rhythm offensively. They lost
64-53 in the conference game vs Alabama, they beat Baylor in the tourney
70-50, despite overachieving from behind the arc with 8 threes,
something they likely won't do against Gonzaga's 4th best perimeter
defense, which has been successfully tested against some effective
three-point shooting teams in the WCC like Santa Clara and Saint Mary's.
I
don't see how South Carolina scores on Gonzaga. Yes, they will likely
force 15 turnovers. However, they also forced 13 turnovers vs Alabama
and 16 against Baylor and the point total still went under. More
decisive, therefore, is the opposing team's physicality. South Carolina
will not be able to attack the rim successfully or otherwise establish a
rhythm offensively against the big boys that Gonzaga has to offer, 7'1
300 pound Karnowski, 7'0 230 pound Collins, even 6'9 228 pound Williams.
Gonzaga's interior is tall and big. They are first in opposing 2 point
%, so they protect the rim, and they do it without fouling--as they are
16th in opposing free throw attempts. There is good reason why SMC's
star center Landale always struggled against Gonzaga, scoring 10 points,
while committing 4 fouls in their last matchup. Even if SC does get to
the free throw line, they are 185th in FT %. So, SC will get some points
off turnovers, but I don't see how else. Gonzaga is also 45th in
opposing rebound %, so I don't foresee the kind of second-chance
opportunities for SC that they achieved against, for instance, Florida.
Gonzaga, because of their strong interior, is different from SC's
previous opponents. Gonzaga will also struggle to establish a rhythm
against SC's harassing defense. In the games where Gonzaga has put up a
significant amount of points, they have been able to keep better control
of the ball: they scored 83 against Xavier while committing only 10
turnovers. They scored 74 against a slow-paced SMC while committing only
9 turnovers. They will turn the ball over, and I don't see them
touching 70. I also don't see SC touching 70. Like with the Alabama and
Baylor games, they will not be able to force the amount of turnovers to
generate the kind of offensive production that they did against teams
with weak interior defenses.
I think Gonzaga will score more
than SC. A fancy way for saying that I think Gonzaga will win. They are
5th in offensive 2 point % and they will get SC's big men in foul
trouble, for SC is 334th in opposing FTA. So, SC's defensive
aggressiveness will get them some points on offense, but it may cost
them more. Gonzaga is a respectable 71st in FTA. They attempted 25, 32,
and 36 in their last three games and I think they get on the line
plenty. They have the edge in FT %, offensive rebound (for second-chance
points). But most importantly, they have a superior half-court offense
with the talent to score enough. These three "little" things will, on
the offensive side, help secure them the cover. Moreover, their defense,
on the other hand, will overwhelm South Carolina's meager half-court
offense. I see this playing out similarly to SC's 64-53 loss against
Bama in the Conference tournament. I recommend FG under of 138, first
half under (considering how slow SC starts off offensively, and that
Gonzaga will need time to be able to establish any sort of rhythm) and
Gonzaga -6.5.
It's very tough to use any kind of stats to compare these 2 teams and pick the game. The best team the Zags have played in the last 4 months was WVU. SC has played around 6 games against top 25 teams since then. The number really just don't matter at all in this case.
I also like the Zags. I'll wait of a better line in game though. BOL
It's very tough to use any kind of stats to compare these 2 teams and pick the game. The best team the Zags have played in the last 4 months was WVU. SC has played around 6 games against top 25 teams since then. The number really just don't matter at all in this case.
I also like the Zags. I'll wait of a better line in game though. BOL
there a few players on the court today that are not used to being recognized all season long. think about, gonzaga blown by the media all year long, finally facing some legit teams, winning but showing their true colors. this it the final 4. this is not WVU or even NW (lol)
there a few players on the court today that are not used to being recognized all season long. think about, gonzaga blown by the media all year long, finally facing some legit teams, winning but showing their true colors. this it the final 4. this is not WVU or even NW (lol)
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