CSU Bakersfield @ Colorado State: Your MEDIOCRE CAPPER gives you another BELOW AVERAGE CAP!!!

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: CSU Bakersfield @ Colorado State: Your MEDIOCRE CAPPER gives you another BELOW AVERAGE CAP!!!
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:21:19 PM

Record: 7-14

GAME IS at 11:15 EST tonight.

At this point, it's become a joke. 

A foul with 1.3 seconds left (on an awful call but really, it shouldn't have been that close) lifts UCF over Illinois State 63-62 in a game I knew would be super-tight, and one I teased to get to Illinois St -1 and 2 FT's on a terrible call at 1.3 seconds sinks the bet. This is a game ISU lead the entire way. Again, it's a joke at this point. Not the conspiracy. Not the call. Just the piling up of losses. Last year by October I was 30-12 for god's sake.

Then Jeremy Lin scores15 in a 15.5 O/U prop when the Nets score an unconscionable 121.

Keep losing and we go away because what are we contributing. It's embarrassing. Really. And I'm not going to give out losing picks.

And worse, Illinois State would have hosted Illinois for the first time since NINETEEN TWENTY.

Think about that. And they would have been dogs too. Think about that spot. The bet is lost. That spot to support ISU to go to the NIT Finals is gone. All gone. What a disgrace.

So I'll keep this short.

CSU Baskersfield is NOT the team you want to play right now. They beat Cal 73-66 but were up 44-19 at the half. 44-19...on Cal. A team you likely never heard of.

Well now you've heard of them.

And here is what they offer:

1. They play great on the road.

They have to go to CSU tonight? Not a worry. This team has won 9 of its last 11 road games.

2. They have a stellar defense

They rank third nationally in opponent field-goal percentage (37.1), 19th in scoring defense (63.1) and 17th in defensive efficiency.

They thrive off creating chaos with an average of 17 forced turnovers a game (sixth nationally) with about half of those giveaways from steals (8.4 per game, 13th nationally).

Colorado State guards can be very sloppy with the ball.

3. Colorado State has only beaten only team in with an RPI 75 or better.

New Mexico State.

CSU is #75.

4. This is a game which can cause a lookahead spot for Colorado State.

Colorado State will host the winner Akron and UT Arlington (6 and 7 seeds) and CSU Bakersfield is an 8 seed. Colorado State can get on a high horse here and look right to the finals.

5. We get 4.5

Against good defensive teams this looms large.

Look at the 5 tonight against UCF for Illinois State. Look at the 5 that Wisconsin got from Villanova.

4.5/5 is the sweet spot for the a defensive team going all out in a tournament game particularly one with a top flight defense.

I'll take every point and try to avoid falling below 33%.

It's nice I don't do this for a living. My god.


The Pick:


CSU BAKERSFIELD + 4.5 over Colorado State



TennisBrah PM TennisBrah
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:23:34 PM
scal brah, these refs are cashing out, don't know what side is gonna hit, good luck
Getty3 PM Getty3
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:28:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TennisBrah:

scal brah, these refs are cashing out, don't know what side is gonna hit, good luck

Brah, how's the tennis game? 
iConsciousness PM iConsciousness
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:30:36 PM
That's funny.  Just capped this game as well.  On the other side though, Scal. BOL  
TennisBrah PM TennisBrah
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:35:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Getty3:


Brah, how's the tennis game? 

I'll be back at it brah 
t6rider PM t6rider
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:38:45 PM
jroc1247 PM jroc1247
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:38:53 PM
Fak. I may have to cancel out my CSB play now. Dam you Scal.
undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:43:09 PM
Good Luck Scal 
Gary_Hobson PM Gary_Hobson
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:43:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jroc1247:

Fak. I may have to cancel out my CSB play now. Dam you Scal.


I've just done that. Loved CSB until I saw this thread. Can't have scal mush be on the same play
BWS77 PM BWS77
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Posted: 3/20/2017 9:48:00 PM
2 things I'm interested in...   What was Cal's motivation like in the previous game and how scared are you that CSB ranks 346th out of 351 FT%?    
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:06:29 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BWS77:

2 things I'm interested in...   What was Cal's motivation like in the previous game and how scared are you that CSB ranks 346th out of 351 FT%?    

What is any team's motivation in the NIT? Not much on the front end but more on the back end I'd think. And CSU is on the back end.

It's all very subjective. But now every #1 seed is gone, in the second round no less, which shows these seedings are meaningless. So an 8 v 4 is more like a 5/6.

And I've backed great FT shooting teams before only to get blown up anyway off the line.

scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:08:29 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jroc1247:

Fak. I may have to cancel out my CSB play now. Dam you Scal.


Ah, the same guy that was kissing my feet last year has gotten all cocky this year....Amazing isn't it when posters get this cocky confidence over thread-makers with some struggle.

They puff their chest out and walk around like their lats are bigger than Volkswagon Beetles.

By all means, cancel the bet. I'd rather not have you involved.

TiderSider PM TiderSider
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:08:46 PM
I personally like CSU Bakersfield over 65.5 TT. 

Any thoughts on this?
supermanbets PM supermanbets
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:17:52 PM
Colorado state is the play it's the Clavell show
Posted using a mobile device.
DanCarcillo PM DanCarcillo
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:36:19 PM
f-uck it scal lets go 
Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:37:16 PM
Under for me
GL with the play
things will get better
scalabrine PM scalabrine
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:40:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

Under for me
GL with the play
things will get better

 When's that???

Just want .500 for god's sake. Without .500 it's a joke because you are intentionally picking losers by definition.

I just can't wrap my head around the Lin Prop bet against the Knicks. Lin was on a tear leading up to that game and now he faced his arch-rival who dispatched him. When I saw 15.5 I was skeptical at how low it was. And he scores....15....when I have the over. I mean, that is royally f***** the bettor.

Anyhow thanks for the encouragement. Dan, I'm hoping I can bring one home here.

snowman76 PM snowman76
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:51:57 PM
all respect,  when going through hell just keep going
Skitchen PM Skitchen
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:57:23 PM
Good defensive teams don't always cover. Charleston who just played CSU on the road were sitting at +4.5 and lost by 7.

Honestly this game could go either way. CSU played New Mexico State from the same conference this year and beat them at home. Mind you CSU still Bob, Jackson and Butler then. However, CSU was without top scorer Clavell also. So I mean considering NMS couldn't beat them on the road this game is stay clear for me.
jrgumpert PM jrgumpert
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:05:01 PM
65% of the public is on the home team yet they went from opening at -6 and now being at -4.5
In fact at one point today I see they were only -4.

Could the sharps/wiseguys with all the money, who ever you want to call them, be relying too much on their beating of California? (A team that wanted to be in the big dance and didn't show up for the NIT)

Still trying to wrap my head around that big reverse line movement.
monstergrit PM monstergrit
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:10:10 PM
BOL
MONEYMISFITS PM MONEYMISFITS
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:13:39 PM
i like colorado 1st half...bol scal
jrgumpert PM jrgumpert
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:23:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MONEYMISFITS:

i like colorado 1st half...bol scal



They think it's a soccer game, 1 point thru 4 minutes.
KingRGIII PM KingRGIII
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:30:25 PM
smac38 PM smac38
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:34:26 PM
Colorado state free throw shooting is an abomination 
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