Posted: 3/20/2017 9:21:19 PM
GAME IS at 11:15 EST tonight.
At this point, it's become a joke.
A foul with 1.3 seconds left (on an awful call but really, it shouldn't have been that close) lifts UCF over Illinois State 63-62 in a game I knew would be super-tight, and one I teased to get to Illinois St -1 and 2 FT's on a terrible call at 1.3 seconds sinks the bet. This is a game ISU lead the entire way. Again, it's a joke at this point. Not the conspiracy. Not the call. Just the piling up of losses. Last year by October I was 30-12 for god's sake.
Then Jeremy Lin scores15 in a 15.5 O/U prop when the Nets score an unconscionable 121.
Keep losing and we go away because what are we contributing. It's embarrassing. Really. And I'm not going to give out losing picks.
And worse, Illinois State would have hosted Illinois for the first time since NINETEEN TWENTY.
Think about that. And they would have been dogs too. Think about that spot. The bet is lost. That spot to support ISU to go to the NIT Finals is gone. All gone. What a disgrace.
So I'll keep this short.
CSU Baskersfield is NOT the team you want to play right now. They beat Cal 73-66 but were up 44-19 at the half. 44-19...on Cal. A team you likely never heard of.
Well now you've heard of them.
And here is what they offer:
1. They play great on the road.
They have to go to CSU tonight? Not a worry. This team has won 9 of its last 11 road games.
2. They have a stellar defense
They rank third nationally in opponent field-goal percentage (37.1), 19th in scoring defense (63.1) and 17th in defensive efficiency.
They thrive off creating chaos with an average of 17 forced turnovers a game (sixth nationally) with about half of those giveaways from steals (8.4 per game, 13th nationally).
Colorado State guards can be very sloppy with the ball.
3. Colorado State has only beaten only team in with an RPI 75 or better.
New Mexico State.
CSU is #75.
4. This is a game which can cause a lookahead spot for Colorado State.
Colorado State will host the winner Akron and UT Arlington (6 and 7 seeds) and CSU Bakersfield is an 8 seed. Colorado State can get on a high horse here and look right to the finals.
5. We get 4.5
Against good defensive teams this looms large.
Look at the 5 tonight against UCF for Illinois State. Look at the 5 that Wisconsin got from Villanova.
4.5/5 is the sweet spot for the a defensive team going all out in a tournament game particularly one with a top flight defense.
I'll take every point and try to avoid falling below 33%.
It's nice I don't do this for a living. My god.
CSU BAKERSFIELD + 4.5 over Colorado State