Big Play for Monday

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Big Play for Monday
undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 3/19/2017 12:23:52 AM
George Washington -5.5(-110) *7.5/6.82 units


The Colonials are 4-1 in their last 5 winning by an average of 3 ppg.
They are 8-2 in their last 10 winning by an average of 4.2 ppg.

The Flames are 2-3 in their last 5 losing by an average of 8.2 ppg.
They are 4-6 in their last 10 losing by an average of 5.6 ppg.

The bigger story here is who these teams have faced. There is a big SOS discrepancy.

In their 2 loses(last 10) GW played Richmond and Davidson. Ranked #85 and #86 by KP. SOS rankings of 89 and 77.

In their last 8 wins(where they have won by an average of 7 ppg) their opponents averaged a #166 ranking, and an average SOS ranking of 124.

UIC is ranked #242 by KP, w/ a SOS of 260

In the Flames 4 wins(where they have won by and average of 4.75 ppg) their opponents had an average ranking of #245 w/ a SOS of 220. Those 4 schools were...Stony Brook, Wisc-GB, Detroit, and Youngstown State.

In their last 2 point win, it's important to know that Stony Brook was without starting point guard Lucas Woodhouse. Stony Brook went small with 4 guards which UIC wasn't ready for. UIC led by 3 at half. They adjusted, and without Woodhouse, UIC inevitably went on a run. The concerning thing is that UIC was up 65-50 at the 2:50 mark. Stony Brook got back into the game and almost tied it up for OT.

How could this happen? Answer, youth. UIC has the youngest/least experienced starting lineup in all of NCAA. Their entire roster consists of 1 senior, 5 juniors, 3 sophomores, and 6 freshmen.

GW counters with some vets. Patrick Steeves is a graduate Senior. Matt Hart Senior, Tyler Cavanagh Senior, Yuta Watanabe Junior, and Jeren Sina Junior(Seton Hall transfer)

After looking at UIC's schedule...I've isolated their best win. @ Depaul. A 9-23 team who's ranked #187 by KP. And that wasn't much of a road trip, only about a 25 minute bus ride to Rosemont.

GW is ranked #124 by KP w/ a SOS of 100


GW on the other hand has about 7 quality wins imo.

Toledo, George Mason, St. Boneventure, Dayton, Harvard, Temple and Davidson.

UIC hasn't faced any team in the top 50 of anyone's power rankings this year. Vs 51-100 they have a PR of -9.3. GW vs 51-100 has a PR of +2.5. VS 101-200 UIC has a PR of -5.8. GW vs 101-200 has a PR of +5.3.


LAST 3 GAMES

-GW averaging 9.7 TO's pg vs UIC 14.3 TO's pg
-GW averaging 10 opp TO's pg vs UIC 8 pg
-GW averaging 12 fouls pg vs UIC 17.3 pg
-GW averaging a 79.2% FT% vs UIC 75.7%
-GW averaging 46.45% shooting vs UIC 42.4%


ON THE BOARDS

-GW averages 10 offensive rebounds pg(#77) vs UIC 10.5 off reb allowed pg(#329)
-UIC averages 9.9 offensive reb pg(#83) vs GW 7.6 off reb allowed pg(#51)
-UIC averages 25.6 def rebounds pg(#36) vs GW 21.9 def reb allowed pg(#69)


TRENDS

GW is 6-0 su as favs last 10
GW is 5-5 ats last 10
GW is 1-3 ats away last 4

UIC is 0-6 su as a home dog, 3-3 ats
UIC is 2-7-1 ats last 10
UIC is 0-5 ats at home last 5


My system has a GW -7.55, but that's just #'s. I'll take the much more experienced and battle tested squad vs the young and less experienced team who's had less than average competition this year.


I know you all might think this is chasing since my Saturday card burned to a crisp. But I've had my eye on this one for 3 days now. It was going to be my first 10 unit play of the year, but only a 7.5 one now.

Good Luck
 
VTHokies1888 PM VTHokies1888
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Posted: 3/19/2017 12:40:28 AM
Solid points, GL with the play.. oddsmakers don't spend as much time making lines for the other tourney's. Hope you hit 
risktaker PM risktaker
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Posted: 3/19/2017 12:56:58 AM
 good work I may take u up on this
ChOdaZ PM ChOdaZ
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Posted: 3/19/2017 1:25:12 AM
On board with this play. Great anal as always. Only thing I can drum up against it is surprisingly UIC is a better rebounding team and should hold an edge on the glass. 
davemsh PM davemsh
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Posted: 3/19/2017 1:31:50 AM
Hard to gage motivation for teams playing in these 2nd rate postseason tourneys especially on the road. On paper GW is the better team from the better conference etc. 
ILLWILL2WIN1 PM ILLWILL2WIN1
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Posted: 3/19/2017 1:32:07 AM
Yes  love this play    stop the madness you need to get on this play also lets bet huge im really thinking about laying very large on this play  i love it that much
SharpShooter8 PM SharpShooter8
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Posted: 3/19/2017 7:53:30 AM

GL Sac

I like the analysis and data very much. 

Dz10 PM Dz10
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Posted: 3/19/2017 8:04:50 AM
Very nice work Sac. Thank you. I'm in!
Cardoholic PM Cardoholic
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Posted: 3/19/2017 8:30:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:

Great anal as always. 

I think I would have gone ahead and finished out that word, LOL.  Just messin'
winners1941 PM winners1941
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Posted: 3/19/2017 8:47:25 AM
do you expect a better line later,sac? or make this play now.
freaballz2 PM freaballz2
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Posted: 3/19/2017 9:06:30 AM
I don't even see this game listed...
HoustonSports PM HoustonSports
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Posted: 3/19/2017 9:14:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by freaballz2:

I don't even see this game listed...
Rotation number 629
IAdecimal5 PM IAdecimal5
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Posted: 3/19/2017 9:32:14 AM
Sac.....
freaballz2 PM freaballz2
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Posted: 3/19/2017 10:07:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:

On board with this play. Great anal as always. Only thing I can drum up against it is surprisingly UIC is a better rebounding team and should hold an edge on the glass. 

Great ANAL?? HAHAHAHAHAHA 
undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 3/20/2017 8:42:06 AM
Here we are...a do or die type bet.

Yes Chodaz..."Anal"  would not be to far from what I will feel if this bet burns. The last 2 days have not been kind to me. Ironically, a 2 team parlay which included duke ML hurt me...but I couldn't be happier that they are out.


GL today Folks
wmi799 PM wmi799
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Posted: 3/20/2017 8:45:51 AM
Solid info as always. BOL! 
PapaShango PM PapaShango
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:26:37 AM
From someone that went to GW for 2 years and follows the team pretty closely, I would be a little worried that this is on the road.  They seemed to fall flat a bunch on the road this season as evident of their 5-11-1 ATS record on the road, but they should win.  Hope you get the cover.  
chipshipley PM chipshipley
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:44:35 AM
Sac what do you think about GW 1H? If I'm not mistaken UIC starts slow in a lot of games. 
cjm2008 PM cjm2008
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Posted: 3/20/2017 10:54:03 AM
GL today SAC
undermysac PM undermysac
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:08:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chipshipley:

Sac what do you think about GW 1H? If I'm not mistaken UIC starts slow in a lot of games. 

Should be good
iConsciousness PM iConsciousness
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:11:14 AM
BOL, Sac. Love the attention to detail and effort you put into the game. May tail you on this. 
CKP22 PM CKP22
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:44:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by undermysac:

George Washington -5.5(-110) *7.5/6.82 units


The Colonials are 4-1 in their last 5 winning by an average of 3 ppg.
They are 8-2 in their last 10 winning by an average of 4.2 ppg.

The Flames are 2-3 in their last 5 losing by an average of 8.2 ppg.
They are 4-6 in their last 10 losing by an average of 5.6 ppg.

The bigger story here is who these teams have faced. There is a big SOS discrepancy.

In their 2 loses(last 10) GW played Richmond and Davidson. Ranked #85 and #86 by KP. SOS rankings of 89 and 77.

In their last 8 wins(where they have won by an average of 7 ppg) their opponents averaged a #166 ranking, and an average SOS ranking of 124.

UIC is ranked #242 by KP, w/ a SOS of 260

In the Flames 4 wins(where they have won by and average of 4.75 ppg) their opponents had an average ranking of #245 w/ a SOS of 220. Those 4 schools were...Stony Brook, Wisc-GB, Detroit, and Youngstown State.

In their last 2 point win, it's important to know that Stony Brook was without starting point guard Lucas Woodhouse. Stony Brook went small with 4 guards which UIC wasn't ready for. UIC led by 3 at half. They adjusted, and without Woodhouse, UIC inevitably went on a run. The concerning thing is that UIC was up 65-50 at the 2:50 mark. Stony Brook got back into the game and almost tied it up for OT.

How could this happen? Answer, youth. UIC has the youngest/least experienced starting lineup in all of NCAA. Their entire roster consists of 1 senior, 5 juniors, 3 sophomores, and 6 freshmen.

GW counters with some vets. Patrick Steeves is a graduate Senior. Matt Hart Senior, Tyler Cavanagh Senior, Yuta Watanabe Junior, and Jeren Sina Junior(Seton Hall transfer)

After looking at UIC's schedule...I've isolated their best win. @ Depaul. A 9-23 team who's ranked #187 by KP. And that wasn't much of a road trip, only about a 25 minute bus ride to Rosemont.

GW is ranked #124 by KP w/ a SOS of 100


GW on the other hand has about 7 quality wins imo.

Toledo, George Mason, St. Boneventure, Dayton, Harvard, Temple and Davidson.

UIC hasn't faced any team in the top 50 of anyone's power rankings this year. Vs 51-100 they have a PR of -9.3. GW vs 51-100 has a PR of +2.5. VS 101-200 UIC has a PR of -5.8. GW vs 101-200 has a PR of +5.3.


LAST 3 GAMES

-GW averaging 9.7 TO's pg vs UIC 14.3 TO's pg
-GW averaging 10 opp TO's pg vs UIC 8 pg
-GW averaging 12 fouls pg vs UIC 17.3 pg
-GW averaging a 79.2% FT% vs UIC 75.7%
-GW averaging 46.45% shooting vs UIC 42.4%


ON THE BOARDS

-GW averages 10 offensive rebounds pg(#77) vs UIC 10.5 off reb allowed pg(#329)
-UIC averages 9.9 offensive reb pg(#83) vs GW 7.6 off reb allowed pg(#51)
-UIC averages 25.6 def rebounds pg(#36) vs GW 21.9 def reb allowed pg(#69)


TRENDS

GW is 6-0 su as favs last 10
GW is 5-5 ats last 10
GW is 1-3 ats away last 4

UIC is 0-6 su as a home dog, 3-3 ats
UIC is 2-7-1 ats last 10
UIC is 0-5 ats at home last 5


My system has a GW -7.55, but that's just #'s. I'll take the much more experienced and battle tested squad vs the young and less experienced team who's had less than average competition this year.


I know you all might think this is chasing since my Saturday card burned to a crisp. But I've had my eye on this one for 3 days now. It was going to be my first 10 unit play of the year, but only a 7.5 one now.

Good Luck
 

This is great analysis. Will be rooting for this play to hit!
Fg_Zero PM Fg_Zero
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Posted: 3/20/2017 11:49:30 AM
Good work. Thanks.
achirico2 PM achirico2
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Posted: 3/20/2017 1:05:03 PM
Great write up.
BismarckOtto PM BismarckOtto
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Posted: 3/20/2017 1:12:50 PM
Nice writeup, thanks for posting. I'm strongly leaning GW 1st half, FG looks like a nice play as well. Hope you hit this BOL
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