Full disclosure - I have Gonzaga in my Calcutta, whereby I get 15% of the skittles if they win this game, so clearly a rooting interest in them to advance. Bets on these games are solely based on prevailing situations.
This season vs. the four best shooting teams in the Big East - Creighton, Villanova, Marquette and Butler - Xavier was 2-7 losing by an average score of 78.8 to 69.3. That's 9.5 difference, too close for a play on the side, but again, I'm concentrated on Gonzaga, so not entertaining a side bet. The average scores are also very close to both team total numbers for tonight. I'm investing that a) Gonzaga is better offensively than all of the Big East teams and b) better defensively. The Zags haven't played even close to their best game and Xavier, well, they've been in cruise control. Gonzaga is fresh off a 40% shooting effort, and in fact they've shot less than 45% in each game in the tournament. Prior to this funk, Gonzaga coming off a 45% or less shooting game has responded as follows:
55% FG 109 points
51% FG 77 points
53% FG 98 points
54% FG 86 points
51% FG 83 points
60% FG 90 points
54% FG 82 points
It's very possible the funk will continue for the Zags, but Xavier will be statistically the worst defense they've faced thus far in the tournament. And if the best shooters in the Big East had their way with Xavier, it's quite possible, the Zags might be primed for the funk to end...
Full disclosure - I have Gonzaga in my Calcutta, whereby I get 15% of the skittles if they win this game, so clearly a rooting interest in them to advance. Bets on these games are solely based on prevailing situations.
This season vs. the four best shooting teams in the Big East - Creighton, Villanova, Marquette and Butler - Xavier was 2-7 losing by an average score of 78.8 to 69.3. That's 9.5 difference, too close for a play on the side, but again, I'm concentrated on Gonzaga, so not entertaining a side bet. The average scores are also very close to both team total numbers for tonight. I'm investing that a) Gonzaga is better offensively than all of the Big East teams and b) better defensively. The Zags haven't played even close to their best game and Xavier, well, they've been in cruise control. Gonzaga is fresh off a 40% shooting effort, and in fact they've shot less than 45% in each game in the tournament. Prior to this funk, Gonzaga coming off a 45% or less shooting game has responded as follows:
55% FG 109 points
51% FG 77 points
53% FG 98 points
54% FG 86 points
51% FG 83 points
60% FG 90 points
54% FG 82 points
It's very possible the funk will continue for the Zags, but Xavier will be statistically the worst defense they've faced thus far in the tournament. And if the best shooters in the Big East had their way with Xavier, it's quite possible, the Zags might be primed for the funk to end...
The teams Kansas has faced this season that most resemble Oregon in terms of size and athleticism - Iowa State, Baylor, Kentucky and West Virginia. Kansas' results in those games...
Iowa State : 4 point win and 3 point loss in OT
West Virginia : 16 point loss and 4 point win in OT
Baylor : 5 point win and 2 point win
Kentucky : 6 point win
While Iowa State has Morris and Kentucky Monk and Fox, Oregon has Brooks and Dorsey. The former loves this stage, and as of late, the latter is stepping up big time.
The teams Kansas has faced this season that most resemble Oregon in terms of size and athleticism - Iowa State, Baylor, Kentucky and West Virginia. Kansas' results in those games...
Iowa State : 4 point win and 3 point loss in OT
West Virginia : 16 point loss and 4 point win in OT
Baylor : 5 point win and 2 point win
Kentucky : 6 point win
While Iowa State has Morris and Kentucky Monk and Fox, Oregon has Brooks and Dorsey. The former loves this stage, and as of late, the latter is stepping up big time.
Jerome, Myles - I hope we can get Jerome some Shirmp4Life
SharpShooter - thanks man, nice run, but there always seems to be a brick wall on the horizon. we shall see...
South Carolina +3.5
South Carolina-Florida first half under 62.5
South Carolina-Florida under 136
Michigan. Butler. Xavier. All were rolling and teams that seemed out of place in the Sweet 16/Elite 8. All eventually met their maker. South Carolina, the last team who seems out of place, but this feels different. They faced Florida twice in conference play and split, a 4 point win and a 15 point loss. Without even diving into stats, situationally the win happened during a 4 game winning streak and the loss during a two game losing streak. The Gamecocks are playing like the team that began the year 15-3 and the one that faced the Gators on a winning streak. They have beaten three teams thus far who are all more prolific on offense than Florida. The offense looks better than the defense save for last game vs. Baylor where everything clicked. Today I think the defense steps up and carries South Carolina.
As for the under, Wisconsin shot 50% against the Gators last round, which broke a streak of 19 games holding opponents under 50% shooting. The Gators D will be back at it today. Nothing steps up defense like a little conference rivalry game with an enormous prize on the line. No experience on either side playing in a game this big and that generally equates to bad shots, turnovers and slow pace.
Jerome, Myles - I hope we can get Jerome some Shirmp4Life
SharpShooter - thanks man, nice run, but there always seems to be a brick wall on the horizon. we shall see...
South Carolina +3.5
South Carolina-Florida first half under 62.5
South Carolina-Florida under 136
Michigan. Butler. Xavier. All were rolling and teams that seemed out of place in the Sweet 16/Elite 8. All eventually met their maker. South Carolina, the last team who seems out of place, but this feels different. They faced Florida twice in conference play and split, a 4 point win and a 15 point loss. Without even diving into stats, situationally the win happened during a 4 game winning streak and the loss during a two game losing streak. The Gamecocks are playing like the team that began the year 15-3 and the one that faced the Gators on a winning streak. They have beaten three teams thus far who are all more prolific on offense than Florida. The offense looks better than the defense save for last game vs. Baylor where everything clicked. Today I think the defense steps up and carries South Carolina.
As for the under, Wisconsin shot 50% against the Gators last round, which broke a streak of 19 games holding opponents under 50% shooting. The Gators D will be back at it today. Nothing steps up defense like a little conference rivalry game with an enormous prize on the line. No experience on either side playing in a game this big and that generally equates to bad shots, turnovers and slow pace.
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