We're experimenting with our forums. Check it out for yourself.

Turning your 100k into one mill - the big play board

Forum: College Basketball Page 1 of 7  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Turning your 100k into one mill - the big play board
fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/9/2017 9:59:19 PM

The topic is self-explanatory.  I am going to exercise every sport here to do this.  Might get a little tricky once college basketball ends because baseball is really a grind and you really have to limit your bets on games moreso than anything else.  However, I am pretty good with series bets and futures, and many of my big plays will be on those as opposed to just daily games where there is a lot more variation.

Also, I'm going to use bankroll management.  Anyone can dump 100k on 3 straight games and hit.  It's unlikely at any point you will see me put more than 10% on a game.  Even that's a lot.  I may in very rare spots for teasers and moneyline parlays that I think you'll see I get pretty creative and effective with.  However, I may put 10-25% on a future that I really like.  Reason being futures are less variation.  These futures are typically championship winners or series winners.   Sometimes conference tournament winners in college basketball.  Last year, I predicted the winners in the tourney of the top 4 conferences.  I doubt I will make big plays this year because the competition is watered down and there are really no superior teams, whereas last year you had teams like NC and Oregon and MSU who were clearly above everyone else in their conference.  I like Purdue a fair amount, Kansas a little, and maybe even Kentucky despite their struggles.  But that's a discussion for later where I'll have to evaluate.  We will also have possible future plays on hockey and tennis (the majors).

Starting with 100k.

1. 7700 to win 7000 on UCLA -4.5

I think this is the perfect spot for UCLA.  They should have won last game vs Oregon easily.  They will be very motivated tonight.  Oregon just had a blowout and had their big win.  I'm skeptical that they're what we saw last year.  I think they're a rock solid team, but not quite as good and that may show tonight.  I think they get outscored in this one.  UCLA also lost a big game to Arizona a few weeks ago at home and I think the reversion to the mean is in your favor here because it's unlikely you see a home team lose twice in a row at home in a big game spot like this to an opponent who is at best evenly matched.

snowman76 PM snowman76
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4189
 
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/10/2017 8:17:57 AM
92,300.   I like this thread. i can live vicariously with my smaller bets,  i know the double down bet is coming.  Lets keep it going.

fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/10/2017 7:26:25 PM

Bet tonight -

GS ml -350 14k to win 4k

This is a bigger wager than normal.  It isn't a chase play as I would make it this amount no matter what pretty much.  Actually would be a little bigger with a win last night.  Tough game.  Real line was actually -4 I posted 4.5.  So lost by a half a point.

Why GS tonight?  Well they blew a 25 pt home lead to them last time.  0-2 on the year.  Coming off a loss.  They're gonna be really fired up, and no one in this league is good enough beat GS in a game they really want to have on full rest.  GS hasn't lost 2 in a row in like 3 years.  I'll take my chances tonight.  Memphis just isn't a very good offensive team and I don't see them keeping up in this game.  I think GS probably wins by 20, but I'll ml tonight just to be safe.  -350 is the highest I'll ever lay.  I know it seems like a lot.  But it's about expected value.  If you think a team is 97% to win a game, -350 is a profitable bet if that's the line you get given your projection. 

Also, have a bet I like tomorrow quite a bit.  I will not have plays every day.  This isn't a scamdicapper thing going on here like at the Brandon lang site.  If there's nothing I like for 3 days then I'm not posting.  And you know what?  We don't need plays every day.  Because this is a bigdaddy board and I'm releasing large wagers here.  This is about precision, not quantity. 

snowman76 PM snowman76
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4189
 
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/10/2017 7:40:53 PM
   not a chase but 3.5 to 1 risk ratio.  GL
fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/10/2017 10:48:51 PM

Big plays tomorrow boys!  I like this card as much as I love the booty on the Japanese hooker that I just got finished plowing.  Bankroll starts at 96,300

As an fyi, in retrospect I should parlayed GS with Sa and another separate bet with Wash.  I thought Leonard was out for SA which is why I laid off that and turns out he played so a bit of a mistake there.

fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/11/2017 10:45:19 AM

3. 4 team parlay - 12k to win 18k +150

As an fyi, when I calculated, I will round to the nearest tenth.  This is actually +147, but I think dealing with whole numbers will make these calculations a little easier for you guys.

Maryland, Iowa State, West Virginia, Arizona

4. 4 team parlay 5k to win 6k

Maryland, Utah, Baylor, Louisville

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 41440
 
DoubleUp4Life
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/11/2017 10:49:37 AM
Dude thank God this is Fake Money 

While I hope you get to 3 Million , this is a Horrible Idea 

Tread lightly 



BEST OF LUCK BROTHER 
fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/11/2017 10:50:42 AM
ML parlay I should specify.
fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/11/2017 11:12:31 AM

Doubleup4life - ignore this guy.  This guy is a troll who goes around hating on my posts.  He hasn't commented in any of my other threads where I have a solid record.  That's quite predictable.  Seriously, get out of here.  There's a reason I pick every one of these games, and I know what I'm doing. 

One more add on

4. ML parlay Pacers and VCU -140 3.5k to win 2.5k

This Bucks team is so bad I just have to add them on.  And VCU traditionally is very good in conference and playing a Davidson team that plays no defense and they match well against in my opinion.  Solid price you have to make the dog win one of those.  I'm from Wisconsin.  The Bucks are terrible right now guys.  I saw them play Miami earlier in the week (saw none of last nights game vs LA where they got down at home by 30).  They look like they've given up and are awful in every area. 

Regarding Maryland above, I will go through this game quick.  They have a big size advantage.  They crushed Ohio St in their place a few weeks ago.  Ohio St is a pretty bad team.  They are very, very bad on D.  Maryland is much more physical, and coming off a couple losses they should come in here and want to take it to them.

As for the others.  Oklahoma is just a terrible team and on the road vs Iowa St I just can't see them winning.  They are horrendous everywhere this year, especially on the road.  K State is another team soft on D, and WV lost at home last weekend.  I don't think they'll drop 2 in a row on consecutive Saturdays.  Just much more physical and I think their press will cause issues.  K State traditionally a terrible road team despite a few good road performances this year.  This really feels like a spot they're gonna lose.  Arizona you just take your chances with at home vs Cal.  Cal really isn't that good on the road.  They can beat the middle to bottom tier teams in the conference, but vs the top teams on the road they have lost every time, often decisively.  I'm not thrilled with how Zona played a few nights ago, but they are definitely the better team and again I'll take my chances at home with the way they can D up and have the size adv along with pretty efficient offensive play.  Gotta make Cal win because the numbers don't back it up.

Utah Wash is a mismatch.  Wash plays no D.  Terrible road team.  No defense.  They could hang around, but a win would be pretty stunning with that D.  Just gonna be lay ups and dunks all nights for Utah.  Miami really not a great team this year.  I like Louisville off the loss.  Miami is just soft.  Again, not a great D.  Louisville more physical, and I will back them as they have been great at home and Miami hasn't shown me anything and is definitely not a contender.  Lastly, Baylor has owned TCU at home traditionally, winning by large margins.  I've seen TCU really struggle scoring in road games, and I think Baylor will cause them a lot of issues here.  Baylor is vulnerable, but this really feels like a spot they win.  It's just not a good matchup for TCU.  And defensively TCU is pretty meh.  They're improved from last year and they could def hang around which is why I had them in a smaller wager size, but I really think they find a way to lose this one.  They just don't have the potential to build up a cushion in terms of a lead.  They have to hope to be within a few points at the end of the game and just get lucky vs a more experienced team.  But they could easily be down 8-15 points by then.  Again, just not a good matchup.

DoubleUp4Life PM DoubleUp4Life
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 41440
 
DoubleUp4Life
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/11/2017 11:25:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fluffybucker69:

Doubleup4life - ignore this guy.  This guy is a troll who goes around hating on my posts.  He hasn't commented in any of my other threads where I have a solid record.  That's quite predictable.  Seriously, get out of here.  There's a reason I pick every one of these games, and I know what I'm doing. 

One more add on

4. ML parlay Pacers and VCU -140 3.5k to win 2.5k

This Bucks team is so bad I just have to add them on.  And VCU traditionally is very good in conference and playing a Davidson team that plays no defense and they match well against in my opinion.  Solid price you have to make the dog win one of those.  I'm from Wisconsin.  The Bucks are terrible right now guys.  I saw them play Miami earlier in the week (saw none of last nights game vs LA where they got down at home by 30).  They look like they've given up and are awful in every area. 

Regarding Maryland above, I will go through this game quick.  They have a big size advantage.  They crushed Ohio St in their place a few weeks ago.  Ohio St is a pretty bad team.  They are very, very bad on D.  Maryland is much more physical, and coming off a couple losses they should come in here and want to take it to them.

As for the others.  Oklahoma is just a terrible team and on the road vs Iowa St I just can't see them winning.  They are horrendous everywhere this year, especially on the road.  K State is another team soft on D, and WV lost at home last weekend.  I don't think they'll drop 2 in a row on consecutive Saturdays.  Just much more physical and I think their press will cause issues.  K State traditionally a terrible road team despite a few good road performances this year.  This really feels like a spot they're gonna lose.  Arizona you just take your chances with at home vs Cal.  Cal really isn't that good on the road.  They can beat the middle to bottom tier teams in the conference, but vs the top teams on the road they have lost every time, often decisively.  I'm not thrilled with how Zona played a few nights ago, but they are definitely the better team and again I'll take my chances at home with the way they can D up and have the size adv along with pretty efficient offensive play.  Gotta make Cal win because the numbers don't back it up.

Utah Wash is a mismatch.  Wash plays no D.  Terrible road team.  No defense.  They could hang around, but a win would be pretty stunning with that D.  Just gonna be lay ups and dunks all nights for Utah.  Miami really not a great team this year.  I like Louisville off the loss.  Miami is just soft.  Again, not a great D.  Louisville more physical, and I will back them as they have been great at home and Miami hasn't shown me anything and is definitely not a contender.  Lastly, Baylor has owned TCU at home traditionally, winning by large margins.  I've seen TCU really struggle scoring in road games, and I think Baylor will cause them a lot of issues here.  Baylor is vulnerable, but this really feels like a spot they win.  It's just not a good matchup for TCU.  And defensively TCU is pretty meh.  They're improved from last year and they could def hang around which is why I had them in a smaller wager size, but I really think they find a way to lose this one.  They just don't have the potential to build up a cushion in terms of a lead.  They have to hope to be within a few points at the end of the game and just get lucky vs a more experienced team.  But they could easily be down 8-15 points by then.  Again, just not a good matchup.



In No way am I trolling you 

I hope you win all your bets= BEST OF LUCK 

However these HUGE fake wager amounts on Giant ML Chalk are bankroll suicide ......... 
snowman76 PM snowman76
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4189
 
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/11/2017 12:34:34 PM
96,300.00       VCU -140
snowman76 PM snowman76
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4189
 
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/11/2017 12:43:21 PM
parlay pacers and VCU,   VCU is -350ML   or -7.5      


6
Bk only gives 4 points on teaser,   only takes me down to -3  pacers and -3.5 Va commonwealth


how are you getting ML at -140 for both???   
snowman76 PM snowman76
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4189
 
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/11/2017 12:47:04 PM
any disparity in lines will be calculated on most my line most unfavorable to player

1 pt bought -130   pacers -2,  VCU -2.5     3250 to win 2500
fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/11/2017 2:03:28 PM
It is a ml parlay. Go on sportsbook and look at the ml and see it for yourself when you type it in. Anytime you get 2 teams -300 or so in a parlay the payout is like -130. The reason I ml is because the odds are favorable in parlays - sometimes a teaser with the same 2 teams gives you worse odds. Vcu is the team I like the least. But they lost at davidson earlier so they should get up for this one and davidson with 2 bad losses in a row at home has hit bottom. Vcu should win but it isnt a slam dunk. And I think Indy played well last night and had win like 9 of 10 so they should beat mil who looks lost and working out kinks with a new lineup and depleted takent. But it is the nba and I dont bet too many nba games. You have to really pick the spots
fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/11/2017 7:52:05 PM
Indiana getting fapped by the Bucks.  No show tonight.  Good job guys.  Let's get down by 20 and 30 at home to the Heat and Lakers, but then randomly show up tonight just to screw me.  What a joke of a team.  But this is why I don't do much with the NBA, and if I do it involves only the Warriors or sometimes Spurs/Rockets.
snowman76 PM snowman76
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4189
 
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/11/2017 11:10:16 PM
96,300.00  - 3,250.00

pacers lose by 16


93,050.00

fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/12/2017 12:10:52 AM
You missed the other 2 bigger bets though that will win for 18k and 6k. And the third one that lost was 3500.  So that's a net day of +$20,500.  Bankroll finishes up at $116,800.
The_Goat PM The_Goat
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 956
 
The_Goat
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/12/2017 12:28:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fluffybucker69:

You missed the other 2 bigger bets though that will win for 18k and 6k. And the third one that lost was 3500.  So that's a net day of +$20,500.  Bankroll finishes up at $116,800.

snowman76 PM snowman76
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4189
 
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/12/2017 10:56:54 AM
ok I'm looking at the ML parlays now.  you aren't specifying with each parlay,  for example louisville didn't cover line but won game. so a ML parlay would win.   your parlays are all going to be ML parlays?

+116,800
stopthemadness PM stopthemadness
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 1535
 
stopthemadness
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/12/2017 11:10:56 AM
these kinda threads are such a joke and so sickening. Losers like this one shd never be allowed to post anything. 100k lol sure.And of course you come to covers to let us all know how youre betting all of your fake money
fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/12/2017 2:48:50 PM

stopthemadness, I never said I was betting this actual money.  I said starting with this bankroll, this is how I would be wagering based on my knowledge and experience.  Sickening?  No one is forcing you to do anything, and maybe you should wait till I lose before you berate me.

I did mention ml parlay.  And I mentioned the risk to win ratio so I assumed you knew it was a ml parlay.  But I'll be more specific.  Ml parlays have value guys.  I know I will get tons of haters saying they don't.  Yes they do.  The guys who disagree are thinking in general if you parlay any random mls you'll lose over time.  Yes, of course.  But I'm not picking random games.  I'm picking certain games at the right times with the right matchups given past history of both teams.  When you're a degenerate and you have been betting sports for 4-5 years, you pick up on stuff at some point.  You pick up on patterns, tendencies, etc.  It isn't easy to figure out.  It doesn't all make sense.  I think one mistake most betters make is for example never backing a team after a loss and always after they win.  You can't make a lot of money with that philosophy.  Some teams yes play better with momentum, but you have to have awareness of which teams those are.

5. ML parlay today- Wisconsin, Spurs, Raptors - risking 6k to win 5400.  I wager at betonline. The risk to win ratio is 0.90, roughly the same as a regular straight wager.

fluffybucker69 PM fluffybucker69
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 529
 
fluffybucker69
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 2/12/2017 3:19:40 PM

Also, I have looked a little bit ahead at this week's slate of games.  There are definitely some good spots.  In general, up until July there will be plenty of opportunities.  CB is the best $ making spot right now because I know now have a good enough sample to know where most teams are at right now.  But you got NBA futures opportunities with championship and playoff series coming up.  NHL series futures.  Even tennis futures can be profitable if you know the sport and wait around for the right spots and things to develop you'll see they will heavily favor certain players at certain points. 

As far as baseball is concerned, I don't plan on posting plays until May at the earliest.  And even that's too early in my opinion.  Should be late May till June.  You have to wait for pitchers to shake off the rust and see patterns develop.  I think it's a tough sport to win a lot of money at, but a tough sport to really lose a ton of money at.  Historically, I've done a lot of 8 team parlays trying to hit stuff and I will say you can hit those parlays easier than football or basketball.  I won't post those huge parlays obv, but honestly there are so many games in baseball it gets complex.  I believe in making a lot of bets wherever you have a feel or think there is value as opposed to a "best bet."  Baseball is too random to fall in love with one game only a day.  I've improved a lot with baseball, but it's super high variation and streaky and, for example, I probably won't see a game all season I liked more than the WV, Zona, Iowa St, Maryland ml parlay yesterday.  I just saw that bet as a pretty low variation spot.  I thought K State was really the only team with a decent shot of winning, the others clearly outmatched. 

One more thing I want to mention.  You have to be creative to win betting.  People love ATS.  Sure, ATS is fine sometimes.  But remember it's arbitrary whether a 10 point fav wins by 8 or 13.  That's why I like ML parlays.  It simplifies things, and teams are always playing for self-interest.  Everyone wants to win.  No one cares all that much about losing a few points in winning margin.  But my point is the easier types of gambling often have the worst odds.  Blackjack?  Easy to understand.  Bad odds.  Craps?  Not easy to understand.  Best odds of any game in a casino.  Roulette maybe the easiest to understand.  Worst odds.  This is why as a better, you have to know what you're doing and use ml parlays or teasers like in the NFL.  Obv, baseball is simple everything is ml.  College football I think ATS is the best way to go.  That's probably my worst sport, but mainly because you can't develop a large enough sample to get a strong feel for most teams in an 11 game season.  Bowl season is very profitable however. 

Also, you have to take advantage of easy futures plays guys.  The Pats to win the AFC this year was like +150.  That was such an easy profitable, low variation spot.  AFC specifically - not the SB where every game they play is tight.  The AFC you knew they had everyone dominated if you know the NFL.  And I can hint this to you as well - you should be piling on GS to win the Championship this year.  I don't care if the odds are -170.  It's about EV, and they should be a much bigger fav - 250 at worst.  I would make them -450ish except a casino can't because they would be at such high risk of getting crushed by casual betters if they got unlucky and lost.  But make no mistake that's much closer to the real odds on them.  I will be giving out a monster play on them later at some point closer to start of playoff time.  There's basically a 95-97% chance they're winning this year if you understand the matchups and motivation factor.  Best moneymaking opportunity of the year.  But I'll touch on that more at another time and why imo they are such a monster favorite and break it down.

shaisterinc PM shaisterinc
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 138
 
shaisterinc
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 2/12/2017 3:34:46 PM
That a boy Fluffy. Don't worry about the haters. #toodamnserious!!

mjm1012 PM mjm1012
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 30438
 
mjm1012
Participation Meter
Legend
Posted: 2/12/2017 3:55:58 PM
snowman76 PM snowman76
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4189
 
snowman76
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 2/12/2017 5:42:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mjm1012:



yes lets keep this one positive, it activates that part of brain that might normally be occupied by a beer or woman.  Whats the action tonight?


ONWARDS TO A FAKE MILLION DOLLARS!
Forum: College Basketball Page 1 of 7  1 2 3 4 5   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View