The transition from Shaka to WW is more stark than many would have assumed. Whereas Shaka brought pressure from all over the floor (Havoc!), Wade's defense is more predicated on pressure in the halfcourt. VCU will trap in the corners and near halfcourt, but it's not the same type of end-to-end chaos that we saw with Shaka's teams.
Davidson...well, you know what you're going to get from McKillop. They run beautiful motion offense and space the floor as well any team in the country. Other than Barham, everyone can shoot the ball from behind the arc. Gibbs is arguably the most under-the-radar superstar in major college basketball and has taken over several games single-handedly.
Realistically, this game boils down to turnovers. Davidson turns the ball over less than any team in the country (13.1%). VCU forces the 4th most turnovers in the country (24.4%). I mentioned above the differences between Shaka and Wade's defense. Here, though, there is a similarity in that if you don't turn it over against VCU, there's a good chance you're going to score. VCU's effective field goal percentage defense is actually rather average (#133).
McKillop's motion offense is going to spread VCU out across the court. It's difficult to create turnovers via traps when the court is spaced from side to side. In addition to being knockdown shooters, Gibbs and Sullivan are also stellar ballhandlers. So, too, is Barham, who is 16th in the country in turnover percentage and poses a major matchup problem at the 4-spot because of his quickness. Aldridge erupted for 34 against Richmond and is probably the single biggest reason why Davidson's offense is so difficult to guard.
The big issue for Davidson - as is often the case with McKillop's teams - is clearing the defensive glass. Mo Alie-Cox, Tillman, and Mohamed are all going to pound the offensive boards. Ekwu is a very good rebounder, but he's way too foul prone (7.1/40 minutes). He needs to stay out of foul trouble.
VCU is going to jack a TON of threes. In last year's three meetings, VCU put up 22, 15, and 26 threes, respectively. At Belk, they went 1/15 and were blown out of the building. Does that happen again tonight? Seems unlikely, but this team is absurdly streaky from behind the arc. Melvin Johnson alone will probably put up 10+ shots from behind the arc.
Last year's three meetings were all quite different. Of course, those meetings featured the A10's player of the year (Kalinowski) and the should-have-been-all-time-steals-leader, Briante Weber. The A-10 tourney semi-final game was something of a fluke as VCU drilled 12/24 threes en route to (finally) winning an A10 tournament title.
Can't wait for this one tonight. Should be highly entertaining.
Good luck if you play it.