Because my most accurate model has St. John's as a 10.2 point favorite on a neutral site. Add a few points for homecourt, and St. John's is around a 13+ point favorite.
The models disagree on the spread though, anywhere from 5.6 to 10.7 on a neutral site, so there's a lot of variability there. I lean St. John's even at -9, but I'm not playing unless it somehow drops to -7.
Because my most accurate model has St. John's as a 10.2 point favorite on a neutral site. Add a few points for homecourt, and St. John's is around a 13+ point favorite.
The models disagree on the spread though, anywhere from 5.6 to 10.7 on a neutral site, so there's a lot of variability there. I lean St. John's even at -9, but I'm not playing unless it somehow drops to -7.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where
the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the
final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages).
The number of simulations in which each team covered the current
spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went
over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated
where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or
total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the spread 579 times, while S FLORIDA covered the spread 421 times. *EDGE against the spread =LOUISVILLE.
In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 969 times,
while S FLORIDA won 26 times. In 1000 simulated games, 660 games went
over the total, while 340 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the first half line 513
times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 487 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 607 games went over first half total, while 345 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where
the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the
final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages).
The number of simulations in which each team covered the current
spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went
over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated
where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or
total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE covered the spread 579 times, while S FLORIDA covered the spread 421 times. *EDGE against the spread =LOUISVILLE.
In 1000 simulated games, LOUISVILLE won the game straight up 969 times,
while S FLORIDA won 26 times. In 1000 simulated games, 660 games went
over the total, while 340 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, S FLORIDA covered the first half line 513
times, while LOUISVILLE covered the first half line 487 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 607 games went over first half total, while 345 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
None of the lines moved in the direction needed to feel confident in other plays. There's a good slate tomorrow, hopefully we'll have a bit larger card tomorrow.
None of the lines moved in the direction needed to feel confident in other plays. There's a good slate tomorrow, hopefully we'll have a bit larger card tomorrow.
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