The South Region may lack upset depth, but it does feature our top Giant-Killing bet of the entire opening round.
BEST BET
No. 6 UCLA Bruins (53.1 Giant rating on a scale of 0 to 100 percent chance of beating a generic Giant Killer) versus No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (57.5 Giant Killer rating on a scale of 0 to 100 percent chance of beating a generic Giant)
Upset chance: 74 percent
Never in the history of Giant Killers has a game materialized in this way. On Wednesday, our model ranked UCLA as the Giant most vulnerable to a potential upset. Then, on Friday, it pegged Minnesota as the second-best likely GK, behind only VCU, which earned a 5-seed and thus can't be a GK. The result is an upset rating the likes of which we've never seen, with the Golden Gophers expected to win three-quarters of the time. And that's based on stats UCLA accumulated with Jordan Adams, who is now lost for the season with a broken foot.
Even subjective analysts latched on this game immediately on Sunday, targeting Minnesota's rebounding prowess and UCLA's weakness inside. But they didn't know the extent to which that stat will matter; our model shows that offensive rebounding is a consistently strong trait among successful GKs and a standard weakness for slain Giants. The Gophers, of course, lead the nation in offensive boards (44.3 percent). UCLA is just 227th (30.2 percent). Good luck keeping Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams off the glass.
Oddly, the Adams injury could inadvertently force UCLA to match up better with the Gophers. The Bruins went small after a slow start this season -- moving Kyle Anderson to the 4 -- to improve their suspect man-to-man defense and spread the floor on offense. Now, they have essentially no backcourt depth, and it might make sense to play two bigs most of the time with Anderson at the 3 and Shabazz Muhammad at the 2. But in the Pac-12 final, Ben Howland opted to stay small for the most part. We'll see if he changes his mind.
Losing Adams creates two other problems for UCLA, though. He had the highest steal rate on the team, another key factor for Giants. And he had the most made 3-pointers on a team that struggles from deep. That's rough for UCLA, especially considering the Gophers also force plenty of steals.
It is somewhat scary that this game has become such a popular upset pick. But our model is oblivious to such feeble human woes, and loves this matchup more than any other game on the board.
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South Region
The South Region may lack upset depth, but it does feature our top Giant-Killing bet of the entire opening round.
BEST BET
No. 6 UCLA Bruins (53.1 Giant rating on a scale of 0 to 100 percent chance of beating a generic Giant Killer) versus No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (57.5 Giant Killer rating on a scale of 0 to 100 percent chance of beating a generic Giant)
Upset chance: 74 percent
Never in the history of Giant Killers has a game materialized in this way. On Wednesday, our model ranked UCLA as the Giant most vulnerable to a potential upset. Then, on Friday, it pegged Minnesota as the second-best likely GK, behind only VCU, which earned a 5-seed and thus can't be a GK. The result is an upset rating the likes of which we've never seen, with the Golden Gophers expected to win three-quarters of the time. And that's based on stats UCLA accumulated with Jordan Adams, who is now lost for the season with a broken foot.
Even subjective analysts latched on this game immediately on Sunday, targeting Minnesota's rebounding prowess and UCLA's weakness inside. But they didn't know the extent to which that stat will matter; our model shows that offensive rebounding is a consistently strong trait among successful GKs and a standard weakness for slain Giants. The Gophers, of course, lead the nation in offensive boards (44.3 percent). UCLA is just 227th (30.2 percent). Good luck keeping Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams off the glass.
Oddly, the Adams injury could inadvertently force UCLA to match up better with the Gophers. The Bruins went small after a slow start this season -- moving Kyle Anderson to the 4 -- to improve their suspect man-to-man defense and spread the floor on offense. Now, they have essentially no backcourt depth, and it might make sense to play two bigs most of the time with Anderson at the 3 and Shabazz Muhammad at the 2. But in the Pac-12 final, Ben Howland opted to stay small for the most part. We'll see if he changes his mind.
Losing Adams creates two other problems for UCLA, though. He had the highest steal rate on the team, another key factor for Giants. And he had the most made 3-pointers on a team that struggles from deep. That's rough for UCLA, especially considering the Gophers also force plenty of steals.
It is somewhat scary that this game has become such a popular upset pick. But our model is oblivious to such feeble human woes, and loves this matchup more than any other game on the board.
The bigger issue is Georgetown's vulnerability. The Hoyas' various offensive stats are mostly middling, despite Otto Porter Jr.'s all-around brilliance, which is why they rank 62nd in the country in efficiency. They don't hit the offensive glass at all (30.6 percent, 209th in the country), they're a low-frequency 3-point shooting team and they turn the ball over too much (20.1 percent of possessions). Their defense, of course, keeps them in games against anyone, and they are especially strong on the perimeter, both in forcing steals and denying 3s. But it will be tough for the Hoyas to run away from anyone, which is why the Eagles can at least dream about an upset.
Forgive us for getting nostalgic, but this game conjures up memories. One specific memory, in fact. Back in 2009, VCU was a trendy upset pick against UCLA. The Rams were two years removed from stunning Duke as an 11-seed and UCLA hadn't distinguished itself. But our model determined that the Bruins were exceptionally safe and warned readers to go against the grain and stick with the higher seed. UCLA prevailed.
Northwestern State Demons (8.5)
Upset chance: 3.3 percent
Florida has been the king of tempo-free stats all season, and our model isn't about to give up now just because of a few close losses. Strong Giant Killers would have trouble cracking the Gators' armor, given their top-five efficiency ratings at both ends, their prowess scoring from behind the arc and keeping teams from doing the same and their strength on both sides of the boards. And the Demons aren't a good Giant Killer.
Northwestern State is a horrific 3-point shooting team and even worse on the defensive glass (37th in the nation). The Demons do force 12.7 steals per game, but that's not much of an issue for Florida's guards. Maybe someone will poke holes in Florida's super-stat style, but that team is not Northwestern State.
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The bigger issue is Georgetown's vulnerability. The Hoyas' various offensive stats are mostly middling, despite Otto Porter Jr.'s all-around brilliance, which is why they rank 62nd in the country in efficiency. They don't hit the offensive glass at all (30.6 percent, 209th in the country), they're a low-frequency 3-point shooting team and they turn the ball over too much (20.1 percent of possessions). Their defense, of course, keeps them in games against anyone, and they are especially strong on the perimeter, both in forcing steals and denying 3s. But it will be tough for the Hoyas to run away from anyone, which is why the Eagles can at least dream about an upset.
Forgive us for getting nostalgic, but this game conjures up memories. One specific memory, in fact. Back in 2009, VCU was a trendy upset pick against UCLA. The Rams were two years removed from stunning Duke as an 11-seed and UCLA hadn't distinguished itself. But our model determined that the Bruins were exceptionally safe and warned readers to go against the grain and stick with the higher seed. UCLA prevailed.
Northwestern State Demons (8.5)
Upset chance: 3.3 percent
Florida has been the king of tempo-free stats all season, and our model isn't about to give up now just because of a few close losses. Strong Giant Killers would have trouble cracking the Gators' armor, given their top-five efficiency ratings at both ends, their prowess scoring from behind the arc and keeping teams from doing the same and their strength on both sides of the boards. And the Demons aren't a good Giant Killer.
Northwestern State is a horrific 3-point shooting team and even worse on the defensive glass (37th in the nation). The Demons do force 12.7 steals per game, but that's not much of an issue for Florida's guards. Maybe someone will poke holes in Florida's super-stat style, but that team is not Northwestern State.
Here at GK Central, we will always have love for this creature, who apparently can be booked for an event. In fact, we might invite Big Red over to unveil this year's All-GK team, given its strong WKU lineage with the great Orlando Mendez-Valdez.
Sadly, this year's Hilltoppers don't match their predecessors' on-court performance -- they rank 177th in offensive efficiency and 182nd on defense. At least their mediocrity is balanced. They do grab 34.8 percent of available offensive rebounds and shoot a lot of 3s (36.4 percent of their shots). But they turn the ball over 22.4 percent of the time, don't force steals and generally can't get stops consistently.
Kansas, against a better team, might be vulnerable, given the Jayhawks' overreliance on free throws, low-frequency 3-point shooting and struggles to force turnovers. Our model pegs their base power rating as seventh in the country (read: not worthy of a No. 1 seed). But this won't be the game to expose the Jayhawks' flaws.
Florida has been the king of tempo-free stats all season, and our model isn't about to give up now just because of a few close losses. Strong Giant Killers would have trouble cracking the Gators' armor, given their top-five efficiency ratings at both ends, their prowess scoring from behind the arc and keeping teams from doing the same and their strength on both sides of the boards. And the Demons aren't a good Giant Killer.
Northwestern State is a horrific 3-point shooting team and even worse on the defensive glass (37th in the nation). The Demons do force 12.7 steals per game, but that's not much of an issue for Florida's guards. Maybe someone will poke holes in Florida's super-stat style, but that team is not Northwestern State.
Here at GK Central, we will always have love for this creature, who apparently can be booked for an event. In fact, we might invite Big Red over to unveil this year's All-GK team, given its strong WKU lineage with the great Orlando Mendez-Valdez.
Sadly, this year's Hilltoppers don't match their predecessors' on-court performance -- they rank 177th in offensive efficiency and 182nd on defense. At least their mediocrity is balanced. They do grab 34.8 percent of available offensive rebounds and shoot a lot of 3s (36.4 percent of their shots). But they turn the ball over 22.4 percent of the time, don't force steals and generally can't get stops consistently.
Kansas, against a better team, might be vulnerable, given the Jayhawks' overreliance on free throws, low-frequency 3-point shooting and struggles to force turnovers. Our model pegs their base power rating as seventh in the country (read: not worthy of a No. 1 seed). But this won't be the game to expose the Jayhawks' flaws.
Florida has been the king of tempo-free stats all season, and our model isn't about to give up now just because of a few close losses. Strong Giant Killers would have trouble cracking the Gators' armor, given their top-five efficiency ratings at both ends, their prowess scoring from behind the arc and keeping teams from doing the same and their strength on both sides of the boards. And the Demons aren't a good Giant Killer.
Northwestern State is a horrific 3-point shooting team and even worse on the defensive glass (37th in the nation). The Demons do force 12.7 steals per game, but that's not much of an issue for Florida's guards. Maybe someone will poke holes in Florida's super-stat style, but that team is not Northwestern State.
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