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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: 1st half, 2nd half OVER UNDER theory - all tourney long
GIANFRANCO1114 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 3/17/2013 11:34:05 PM

Ok, gents. This is what I am going to do. Every game starting TUES all the way thru the national championship I am betting UNDER in the first half and OVER in the 2nd half. The UNDER on the 1st half will always be for $500. The OVER bet for the 2nd half will vary on the outcome of the 1st half.

1st half UNDER for $500....

if it wins I will bet 2H OVER for 200.

if it pushes or loses I will bet 2H OVER for 750.

Reasoning: Teams come out nervous obviously, and need to feel out the other team cause in most tourney games they are not familiar with the opponent.

2nd half most of the time, has alot more scoring as nerves are gone, halftime adjustments, and ofcourse, the foul shots at the end in a semi-close game.

Will post picks on here throughout. You may tail or fade, doesnt matter to me. But made a nice chunk of change doing this for the conference tourney games.

Either way, best of luck to all and enjoy the madness.

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#2
Posted: 3/17/2013 11:42:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GIANFRANCO1114:

Ok, gents. This is what I am going to do. Every game starting TUES all the way thru the national championship I am betting UNDER in the first half and OVER in the 2nd half. The UNDER on the 1st half will always be for $500. The OVER bet for the 2nd half will vary on the outcome of the 1st half.

1st half UNDER for $500....

if it wins I will bet 2H OVER for 200.

if it pushes or loses I will bet 2H OVER for 750.

Reasoning: Teams come out nervous obviously, and need to feel out the other team cause in most tourney games they are not familiar with the opponent.

2nd half most of the time, has alot more scoring as nerves are gone, halftime adjustments, and ofcourse, the foul shots at the end in a semi-close game.

Will post picks on here throughout. You may tail or fade, doesnt matter to me. But made a nice chunk of change doing this for the conference tourney games.

Either way, best of luck to all and enjoy the madness.


Damn wish I had the bankroll to drop 500 a half! BOL!!!
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Posted: 3/17/2013 11:45:37 PM

LOL i dep 2500 and have it up to 17k - cashing out 1k 2moro

i hit a nice parlay saturday and did well today

BOL to you as well cdburgers

 

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#4
Posted: 3/17/2013 11:50:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GIANFRANCO1114:

LOL i dep 2500 and have it up to 17k - cashing out 1k 2moro

i hit a nice parlay saturday and did well today

BOL to you as well cdburgers

 


how long did it take to turn 2500 into 17k?
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Posted: 3/17/2013 11:58:30 PM
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Posted: 3/18/2013 12:00:37 AM

dep 2500 on fri mar 15 and my book was running a special 100% up to 1800 so started with 4300. met RO quick and cashed out1k last mon or tues. got 17,893 in there now.

this is my fave time of the year CANNOT wait til thurs

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Posted: 3/18/2013 12:04:36 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Suckitup:

you caught me bro , wow you're good

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buckubad
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Posted: 3/18/2013 12:04:48 AM
if u do this all tourney i dare say u wud make money on it.  cept i dont like the 200 with a win, gotta go 500 with a win otherwise those chase 0-2 will eat up profits imo.  obviously linemakers know this line of reasoning as well and some will already be built into line but i think there is slight advantage to this theory.  gl and keep track id like to see it.  might even try it to a much lesser degree
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Posted: 3/18/2013 12:06:24 AM
also doing it in conf tourney the unfamiliar angle shudnt hav playd into it
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Posted: 3/18/2013 12:11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by buckubad:

also doing it in conf tourney the unfamiliar angle shudnt hav playd into it

100% in agreement that is why i like it even more now and i realize conf tourney is different from big one. i think the nerve factor really increases/

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#11
Posted: 3/18/2013 12:11:39 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Suckitup:

Balance:17,893 USD

  • Available:17,893 USD
  • At Risk:0 USD
    • AccountPending Bets
      History
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    GIANFRANCO1114 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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    #12
    Posted: 3/18/2013 12:12:56 AM
    QUOTE

    Originally Posted by buckubad:

    if u do this all tourney i dare say u wud make money on it.  cept i dont like the 200 with a win, gotta go 500 with a win otherwise those chase 0-2 will eat up profits imo.  obviously linemakers know this line of reasoning as well and some will already be built into line but i think there is slight advantage to this theory.  gl and keep track id like to see it.  might even try it to a much lesser degree

    i would LOVE to know how this theory would have worked in last years tourney. you know of anywhere to get 1st and 2nd half lines on last yrs tourney?

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    #13
    Posted: 3/18/2013 12:51:53 AM
    QUOTE Originally Posted by buckubad:

    if u do this all tourney i dare say u
    wud make money on it.  cept i dont like the 200 with a win, gotta go 500 with a win otherwise those chase 0-2 will eat up profits imo.  obviously linemakers know this line of reasoning as well and some will already be built into line but i think there is slight advantage to this theory.  gl and keep track id like to see it.  might even try it to a much lesser degree

    wtf is a wud? 

    The rain man of covers.
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    FuelThePeople
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    #14
    Posted: 3/18/2013 1:19:12 AM
    Nice theory man, looking forward to tailing you on this BOL 
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    buckubad
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    Posted: 3/18/2013 10:14:48 AM
    QUOTE Originally Posted by Pix:


    wtf is a wud? 

    The rain man of covers.
    coming from u dbag, thats a compliment.  keep up ur unbelievably losing ways.  u are awful at this
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    #16
    Posted: 3/18/2013 10:43:29 AM

    ok, need some help with a question.

    i wanna see how my theory would have worked in LY big tourney

    i found a site with 2H lines and full game lines.

    do you think it is somewhat accurate to take the full game total and divide it by 2 and subtract 4 pts?

    so if full game total is 148 - divide by 2 = 74 -4 = 70 is the approx 1st half line?

    or would it be off? opinions needed. if somewhat accurate i am gonna do every game in the tourney when i get home from work later

    but plz share your opinion here

     

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    Posted: 3/18/2013 11:05:02 AM
    1st half life is usually FG Total /2 - 10 I believe....

    OSU v Wisk yesterday: FG Total = 117, 1H Total = 53
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    jdnmoney
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    #18
    Posted: 3/18/2013 11:15:52 AM
    It's full game total -5.5 or so!

    Ie: wisconsin o/u 117.5

    1st H was 53.5
    2H was 64
    Posted using a mobile device.
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    #19
    Posted: 3/18/2013 11:31:54 AM

    in comparing some 2nd half lines from tourney week

    they range from 3.5 -5.5 pts difference using the formula full game total divided by 2

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    Posted: 3/18/2013 11:33:26 AM

    anyone knw of site where i can get 1st half lines from last years naa tourney

    i started doing LY tourney and i like what i see with one modification

    but i a doing 1st half line = full game total divided by 2 minus 4

     

     

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    #21
    Posted: 3/18/2013 11:41:01 AM
    QUOTE Originally Posted by GIANFRANCO1114:

    anyone knw of site where i can get 1st half lines from last years naa tourney

    i started doing LY tourney and i like what i see with one modification

    but i a doing 1st half line = full game total divided by 2 minus 4

     

     


    http://www.scoresandodds.com/grid_20120319.html  
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    #22
    Posted: 3/18/2013 6:21:49 PM

    ok here we go....

    i took the full game line for the 1st (play in rd) and 2nd round games and divided it by 2 and subtracted 5.5 for the 2012 tourney

    ex) full game total is 148 - divide by 2 = 74 - take off 5.5 for approx 1st half line would be 68.5

    so there was 2 1st round games on tues and weds last year - four total

    and 16 2nd round games on thurs and fri - 32 total

    so i have done this for 36 games............

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    #23
    Posted: 3/18/2013 6:24:20 PM

    if you bet $500 on every 1st half under you would have went 21-13-2 (not bad)

    if the under HITS and you win $500 - NO 2ND HALF BET

    if you lose (game goes over in 1st half) - bet 2ND HALF UNDER now

    in the 13 games that went OVER for the first half -- the under went a crazy 10-3

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    #24
    Posted: 3/18/2013 6:28:12 PM

    if i wouldve done this year it would have grossed 10,000 exactly!!!

    recap and i have it in spreadsheet right now and i will do for this year.

    bet 500 on 1st half under

    if it wins - NO SECOND HALF PLAY - take the $500 and enjoy

    if it loses - bet 1000 on UNDER in the 2nd half.

    it is ties - dont know as one 2nd half went OV and the other UN - so NO PLAY for now.

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    Posted: 3/18/2013 6:34:21 PM
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap9ggxcGCMYHdFF5SkFRUDN5em1jTXVQLTVXTFpzV0E#gid=2
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