It is kind of weird that sports teams don't do exactly what we want them to do anymore, or that games don't turn out the way we figured..it used to be so easy, back in the day..
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It is kind of weird that sports teams don't do exactly what we want them to do anymore, or that games don't turn out the way we figured..it used to be so easy, back in the day..
Can't Predict THIS GARBAGE with any regularity.....you just Can't!! But for some demented reason, we keep trying to.
Kansas loses to TCU
Iona loses at home to Marist !!!
Indiana blows a 10 point lead with 2 minutes to go and loses to a pretty bad Illinois team.
I could go on and on for days weeks, months.....
Yes, you can pick a winner from time to time, but with regularity or a % to make money?? NEVER !!!
ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT PLAYED THAT WELL, ILLINOIS HAS WINS VS OHIO ST, AT GONZAGA, BUTLER AND NOW IND, THAT IS 4 TEAMS RANKED IN THE TOP 10 MOST OF THE YEAR....
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Quote Originally Posted by Capodecina:
Can't Predict THIS GARBAGE with any regularity.....you just Can't!! But for some demented reason, we keep trying to.
Kansas loses to TCU
Iona loses at home to Marist !!!
Indiana blows a 10 point lead with 2 minutes to go and loses to a pretty bad Illinois team.
I could go on and on for days weeks, months.....
Yes, you can pick a winner from time to time, but with regularity or a % to make money?? NEVER !!!
ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT PLAYED THAT WELL, ILLINOIS HAS WINS VS OHIO ST, AT GONZAGA, BUTLER AND NOW IND, THAT IS 4 TEAMS RANKED IN THE TOP 10 MOST OF THE YEAR....
ITS SITUATIONS, SOMETIMES NOT AS HARD AS IT SEEMS, LOOK IND COMING OFF A HUGE WIN AT HOME VS MICH, GOES ON THE RD AS 10 PT CHALK AND EVERYONE IS SURPRISE THEY LOSE, WHEN THEY ARE KIDS ITS HARD TO GET THAT PUMPED UP FOR EVERY GAME , CLASSIC LET DOWN SPOT. LOOK AT MICH THE OTHER NIGHT SAME THING VS OHIO ST. PLUS NUMBER 1 TEAMS HAVE LOST 5 WEEKS IN A ROW AFTER BEING NUMBER 1, TRY AND LOOK AT THE SITUATIONS AND WHO THEY HAVE PLAYED LAST OR MAYBE EVEN COMING UP. IT DOES NOT ALWAYS WORK, BUT FOR THE MOST PART I FIND SUCCESS IN CAPPING THAT WAY
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ITS SITUATIONS, SOMETIMES NOT AS HARD AS IT SEEMS, LOOK IND COMING OFF A HUGE WIN AT HOME VS MICH, GOES ON THE RD AS 10 PT CHALK AND EVERYONE IS SURPRISE THEY LOSE, WHEN THEY ARE KIDS ITS HARD TO GET THAT PUMPED UP FOR EVERY GAME , CLASSIC LET DOWN SPOT. LOOK AT MICH THE OTHER NIGHT SAME THING VS OHIO ST. PLUS NUMBER 1 TEAMS HAVE LOST 5 WEEKS IN A ROW AFTER BEING NUMBER 1, TRY AND LOOK AT THE SITUATIONS AND WHO THEY HAVE PLAYED LAST OR MAYBE EVEN COMING UP. IT DOES NOT ALWAYS WORK, BUT FOR THE MOST PART I FIND SUCCESS IN CAPPING THAT WAY
Could a weekday game theory be somewhat plausible? Not that these kids have classes the next day Friday (if they did their schedule right and we're talking about Thursday games), but that the players are just looking to get the game over with and go off on their weekend. And/Or they have a bigger game on Saturday, possibly on tv somewhere, so they are more amped to play Saturday games?
Just spitballing because I also lost today, but usually recuperate it on the weekend. It's been like that all season thus far. So I don't know why I'm betting on them, other than the action. But I have caught myself and toned it down on a weekday game, whereas I will play more units or play more games on Saturday. Either way, I have become more selective, but weekdays are definitely unkind in NCAA..
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Could a weekday game theory be somewhat plausible? Not that these kids have classes the next day Friday (if they did their schedule right and we're talking about Thursday games), but that the players are just looking to get the game over with and go off on their weekend. And/Or they have a bigger game on Saturday, possibly on tv somewhere, so they are more amped to play Saturday games?
Just spitballing because I also lost today, but usually recuperate it on the weekend. It's been like that all season thus far. So I don't know why I'm betting on them, other than the action. But I have caught myself and toned it down on a weekday game, whereas I will play more units or play more games on Saturday. Either way, I have become more selective, but weekdays are definitely unkind in NCAA..
Could a weekday game theory be somewhat plausible? Not that these kids have classes the next day Friday (if they did their schedule right and we're talking about Thursday games), but that the players are just looking to get the game over with and go off on their weekend. And/Or they have a bigger game on Saturday, possibly on tv somewhere, so they are more amped to play Saturday games?
Just spitballing because I also lost today, but usually recuperate it on the weekend. It's been like that all season thus far. So I don't know why I'm betting on them, other than the action. But I have caught myself and toned it down on a weekday game, whereas I will play more units or play more games on Saturday. Either way, I have become more selective, but weekdays are definitely unkind in NCAA..
...Dr. Phil: lets just slow down here and go back to what you said in the middle of all that...you said.."So I don't know why I'm betting on them, other than the action."...Now I am asking you, what do you think that means?...and don't bullshit me because what I'm getting from you is that you have no control...in other words it is the action that you are concerned about, and not the winning...is that fair to say?
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Quote Originally Posted by Htown1:
Could a weekday game theory be somewhat plausible? Not that these kids have classes the next day Friday (if they did their schedule right and we're talking about Thursday games), but that the players are just looking to get the game over with and go off on their weekend. And/Or they have a bigger game on Saturday, possibly on tv somewhere, so they are more amped to play Saturday games?
Just spitballing because I also lost today, but usually recuperate it on the weekend. It's been like that all season thus far. So I don't know why I'm betting on them, other than the action. But I have caught myself and toned it down on a weekday game, whereas I will play more units or play more games on Saturday. Either way, I have become more selective, but weekdays are definitely unkind in NCAA..
...Dr. Phil: lets just slow down here and go back to what you said in the middle of all that...you said.."So I don't know why I'm betting on them, other than the action."...Now I am asking you, what do you think that means?...and don't bullshit me because what I'm getting from you is that you have no control...in other words it is the action that you are concerned about, and not the winning...is that fair to say?
I got killed yesterday and won today. CBB teams are very unpredictable at times. Like BountyHounter said..its more about situations with CBB. I've found more success with what a team has done over a 4 game series away/home.. Check into opponents power rating average and get an average offensive and defensive score during that 4 game series. Some teams are jeckle and hyde. and if you can quage these teams road/home dichtonomy and get an averarge power rating of their opponent /offense/defense etc. you may find something ( Jeff Sagarins ratings are a good place to start
Check out Missouri last 4 road opponents and list each final score and the opponents power rating ( Sagarin) you dont need the rating at time of game either, Just enter it as shown on the sagarin chart.
LSU 70-73 77
Florida 52-83 92.5
Missi. 49-64 84.5
UCLA 94-97 83
265-317 84
265-317 = -52 ( -52+3pts for each road game becasue Mizzo was @ a 3pt disadvantage for ea, gm -52 +12 = -40 divided by the 4 games is -10. So in all actuality Miss. is losing to their opponents avearge rating of 84 by 10 points per game which gives them a 74 road rating.
Do the same thing for Texas A&M
237-250 = -13 Now subtract 3pts for each of Tex am's last 4 home games -13 ( negative 13) minus 12 and you come up with -25( negative 25). Divide the -25 by the 4 games and that = -6.Ta&m's ave opponents rating ( sagarin) is an 84.5 so Tex is losing to their opponents rating by 6 pts per gm giving Tex a 78.5 home rating. Now you can add the 3pts for HC ( home court advantage back on and you now have Tex new home rating of 81.5 which is 7.5 pts greater than Missouris 74 and Tex is a 3pt home dog and they just won the game straight up. Tex was losing by less pts @ home than Miss was on the road. Lets do a final score prediction by averaging the final scores for both teams. Off/Def
Use a high low average on offense and defense: take the highest score Miss had and then take the lowest score they had on offense and eliminate them. Now take the 2 remaining offensive scores,add them together and divide by 2. That will give you a better average than just averaging the 4 Now do the same with the defense and repeat the same procedure with Texas A&M.
Miss 59-78
Tex A&M 60-63
To try and figure a final score we ll take Miss off. 59 and add it to Texas def 63 then subtract 70 ( ave CBB score of all gms) and you come up with52. Repeat for Texas and you come up with 68
Final score prediction 68-52 Texas A&M +4 Dog wins SU and they did just that..won the gm SU as the HDog
The problem is you have to find the perfect models such as this. and go thru all the games and compute..I like to stick to a certain conference or 2. Then you can see how teams fare on he road and home do the math and find the best plays,
Hope this helps
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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I got killed yesterday and won today. CBB teams are very unpredictable at times. Like BountyHounter said..its more about situations with CBB. I've found more success with what a team has done over a 4 game series away/home.. Check into opponents power rating average and get an average offensive and defensive score during that 4 game series. Some teams are jeckle and hyde. and if you can quage these teams road/home dichtonomy and get an averarge power rating of their opponent /offense/defense etc. you may find something ( Jeff Sagarins ratings are a good place to start
Check out Missouri last 4 road opponents and list each final score and the opponents power rating ( Sagarin) you dont need the rating at time of game either, Just enter it as shown on the sagarin chart.
LSU 70-73 77
Florida 52-83 92.5
Missi. 49-64 84.5
UCLA 94-97 83
265-317 84
265-317 = -52 ( -52+3pts for each road game becasue Mizzo was @ a 3pt disadvantage for ea, gm -52 +12 = -40 divided by the 4 games is -10. So in all actuality Miss. is losing to their opponents avearge rating of 84 by 10 points per game which gives them a 74 road rating.
Do the same thing for Texas A&M
237-250 = -13 Now subtract 3pts for each of Tex am's last 4 home games -13 ( negative 13) minus 12 and you come up with -25( negative 25). Divide the -25 by the 4 games and that = -6.Ta&m's ave opponents rating ( sagarin) is an 84.5 so Tex is losing to their opponents rating by 6 pts per gm giving Tex a 78.5 home rating. Now you can add the 3pts for HC ( home court advantage back on and you now have Tex new home rating of 81.5 which is 7.5 pts greater than Missouris 74 and Tex is a 3pt home dog and they just won the game straight up. Tex was losing by less pts @ home than Miss was on the road. Lets do a final score prediction by averaging the final scores for both teams. Off/Def
Use a high low average on offense and defense: take the highest score Miss had and then take the lowest score they had on offense and eliminate them. Now take the 2 remaining offensive scores,add them together and divide by 2. That will give you a better average than just averaging the 4 Now do the same with the defense and repeat the same procedure with Texas A&M.
Miss 59-78
Tex A&M 60-63
To try and figure a final score we ll take Miss off. 59 and add it to Texas def 63 then subtract 70 ( ave CBB score of all gms) and you come up with52. Repeat for Texas and you come up with 68
Final score prediction 68-52 Texas A&M +4 Dog wins SU and they did just that..won the gm SU as the HDog
The problem is you have to find the perfect models such as this. and go thru all the games and compute..I like to stick to a certain conference or 2. Then you can see how teams fare on he road and home do the math and find the best plays,
its may seem simple..however try going thru 20 games per night to find the best model and Sat maybe 30 games.Its alot of work to just get the basic math down and then find the best plays.Its works better if you can isolate the bad road teams playing a team that plays well @ home no matter how good a teams record may be or their position on the sagarin ratings chart
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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its may seem simple..however try going thru 20 games per night to find the best model and Sat maybe 30 games.Its alot of work to just get the basic math down and then find the best plays.Its works better if you can isolate the bad road teams playing a team that plays well @ home no matter how good a teams record may be or their position on the sagarin ratings chart
not very tough if you have been going against the number one team the last few weeks. Easy huge money line cashes. stop taking big favs, these are kids not nba players.
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not very tough if you have been going against the number one team the last few weeks. Easy huge money line cashes. stop taking big favs, these are kids not nba players.
Research,patience,money management,and having enough money to really play are the keys for success in this business. Yeah I treat it as a business , just like the brokers on Wall Street . The good brokers become rich, and the bad brokers loose their investors money, and never make a lot for themselves . There are winners everyday if you really look for them. Right now I have Denver minus 6 & Wash st plus 4, both should for sure cover . Research guys & kill these books !!! I try to kill the books every single year !!!!
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Research,patience,money management,and having enough money to really play are the keys for success in this business. Yeah I treat it as a business , just like the brokers on Wall Street . The good brokers become rich, and the bad brokers loose their investors money, and never make a lot for themselves . There are winners everyday if you really look for them. Right now I have Denver minus 6 & Wash st plus 4, both should for sure cover . Research guys & kill these books !!! I try to kill the books every single year !!!!
Research,patience,money management,and having enough money to really play are the keys for success in this business. Yeah I treat it as a business , just like the brokers on Wall Street . The good brokers become rich, and the bad brokers loose their investors money, and never make a lot for themselves . There are winners everyday if you really look for them. Right now I have Denver minus 6 & Wash st plus 4, both should for sure cover . Research guys & kill these books !!! I try to kill the books every single year !!!!
You may want to look into it.
Money to play is key and all the other points
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Quote Originally Posted by 1988goodies:
Research,patience,money management,and having enough money to really play are the keys for success in this business. Yeah I treat it as a business , just like the brokers on Wall Street . The good brokers become rich, and the bad brokers loose their investors money, and never make a lot for themselves . There are winners everyday if you really look for them. Right now I have Denver minus 6 & Wash st plus 4, both should for sure cover . Research guys & kill these books !!! I try to kill the books every single year !!!!
Vegas has a whole lot of money on the line on any given night. If you had the power to influence the outcome of what happens to that money would do somethin about it or leave it up to chance. I think all sports are being corrupted by Vegas. That does not mean every single game but c'mon.
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Vegas has a whole lot of money on the line on any given night. If you had the power to influence the outcome of what happens to that money would do somethin about it or leave it up to chance. I think all sports are being corrupted by Vegas. That does not mean every single game but c'mon.
...Dr. Phil: lets just slow down here and go back to what you said in the middle of all that...you said.."So I don't know why I'm betting on them, other than the action."...Now I am asking you, what do you think that means?...and don't bullshit me because what I'm getting from you is that you have no control...in other words it is the action that you are concerned about, and not the winning...is that fair to say?
Fair to say? I don't think so. Doesn't the action lead to winning if done right?
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Quote Originally Posted by littlevoice:
...Dr. Phil: lets just slow down here and go back to what you said in the middle of all that...you said.."So I don't know why I'm betting on them, other than the action."...Now I am asking you, what do you think that means?...and don't bullshit me because what I'm getting from you is that you have no control...in other words it is the action that you are concerned about, and not the winning...is that fair to say?
Fair to say? I don't think so. Doesn't the action lead to winning if done right?
Thanks Wizerguy, I use your system in football, how's your percentages using it in CBB ? Higher percentages on dogs or favs ?
Yes it works with football toward the later part of the season where you can go back 3 to 4 games away for the road team and 3-4 games for the home team. The only thing that would need to be done is to go through every play-by-play of every game and remove points off turnovers including the points an offense scores off another teams miscue,
The main points that need to be removed from a teams offense:PF( points for)
1. When team A fumbles the ball.Team B gets the ball at that point and may go a certain amount of downs to score a TD. These points should not be added to that teams offense because the offense didn't do the scoring on their own , they had to rely on their opponents miscue to score the points albeit TD or FG. Doesn't make sense..but it does and many cappers neglect to compute that dynamic
2. When an opposing defense or special teams scores off interception return for TD or KO/PR for a TD. This score must be taken off that teams offense as well, because the offense wasnt on the field when the points were scored
Points that should be taken off Defense PA( points against)
Interception return for TD:> Defense wasn't on the field and should not be charged the points.
Punt/Kick off R for TD, Again, defense wasn't on the filed and should not be charged the points.
The objective is to get all teams RAW or TRUE points offensively and defensively through all games or most importantly ( more predictable) toward the end of the season:> last 4 games overall >last 4 games on the road for the road team >last 4 games @ home for the home team
This is much harder to do with Basketball because there is no separation on the court >Offense and Defense. Its all one unit, so I just take the final offense and defense points or final score and average it out over a 4 game road/home dichtonomy. as a simple way to get the basics of a team, then go over the FG% FT% 3pt% etc. Now if you can get the points that a basketball team scores off turnovers then you may want to calculate that..who has the time to do that. I usually I want a team that can score and has a good point defense to save me the trouble. Many games to go over. to much work unless you already have a knowledge of capping CBB or NBA.
In my next segment I will show a math model of NCState@ Duke Feb 7th game and Clemson@ Virginia game to show the dynamic.
I then will show how I picked Baltimore Ravens to not only cover the spread in SB 47 but how I figured them to win the ML.
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Quote Originally Posted by 1988goodies:
Thanks Wizerguy, I use your system in football, how's your percentages using it in CBB ? Higher percentages on dogs or favs ?
Yes it works with football toward the later part of the season where you can go back 3 to 4 games away for the road team and 3-4 games for the home team. The only thing that would need to be done is to go through every play-by-play of every game and remove points off turnovers including the points an offense scores off another teams miscue,
The main points that need to be removed from a teams offense:PF( points for)
1. When team A fumbles the ball.Team B gets the ball at that point and may go a certain amount of downs to score a TD. These points should not be added to that teams offense because the offense didn't do the scoring on their own , they had to rely on their opponents miscue to score the points albeit TD or FG. Doesn't make sense..but it does and many cappers neglect to compute that dynamic
2. When an opposing defense or special teams scores off interception return for TD or KO/PR for a TD. This score must be taken off that teams offense as well, because the offense wasnt on the field when the points were scored
Points that should be taken off Defense PA( points against)
Interception return for TD:> Defense wasn't on the field and should not be charged the points.
Punt/Kick off R for TD, Again, defense wasn't on the filed and should not be charged the points.
The objective is to get all teams RAW or TRUE points offensively and defensively through all games or most importantly ( more predictable) toward the end of the season:> last 4 games overall >last 4 games on the road for the road team >last 4 games @ home for the home team
This is much harder to do with Basketball because there is no separation on the court >Offense and Defense. Its all one unit, so I just take the final offense and defense points or final score and average it out over a 4 game road/home dichtonomy. as a simple way to get the basics of a team, then go over the FG% FT% 3pt% etc. Now if you can get the points that a basketball team scores off turnovers then you may want to calculate that..who has the time to do that. I usually I want a team that can score and has a good point defense to save me the trouble. Many games to go over. to much work unless you already have a knowledge of capping CBB or NBA.
In my next segment I will show a math model of NCState@ Duke Feb 7th game and Clemson@ Virginia game to show the dynamic.
I then will show how I picked Baltimore Ravens to not only cover the spread in SB 47 but how I figured them to win the ML.
Thanks Wizerguy, I use your system in football, how's your percentages using it in CBB ? Higher percentages on dogs or favs ?
Higher % on the underdog, especially a home underdog vs a bad road team. Look@ Duke.. every time they went on the road and were a large fav @ Wake forest @ Miami. Its the Duke name and history that oddsmakers fool the bettors with. Play well @ home where they roll opponents>. however when they take to the road they cant cover large spreads. Miami is another team. and so is Cemson. They play well @ home but when they play a lower type of team they dont cover ...or win for that matter, Boston College and Wake forest have been solid at home as dogs playing top teams
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Quote Originally Posted by 1988goodies:
Thanks Wizerguy, I use your system in football, how's your percentages using it in CBB ? Higher percentages on dogs or favs ?
Higher % on the underdog, especially a home underdog vs a bad road team. Look@ Duke.. every time they went on the road and were a large fav @ Wake forest @ Miami. Its the Duke name and history that oddsmakers fool the bettors with. Play well @ home where they roll opponents>. however when they take to the road they cant cover large spreads. Miami is another team. and so is Cemson. They play well @ home but when they play a lower type of team they dont cover ...or win for that matter, Boston College and Wake forest have been solid at home as dogs playing top teams
Ok cool good info. I'm looking into the system tonight with maybe taking VMI at home catching 4 pts. The formula makes a lot of since, especially with teams at home catching pts, against bad road favs.
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Ok cool good info. I'm looking into the system tonight with maybe taking VMI at home catching 4 pts. The formula makes a lot of since, especially with teams at home catching pts, against bad road favs.
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