Kineprofessor's Kenpom System

Forum: College Basketball Page 3 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Kineprofessor's Kenpom System
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/8/2013 4:14:50 PM
Upon first glance at the openers for tomorrow and the current kenpom ranking there appear to be 8 likely system plays tomorrow and 4 "just missed plays"

I'll finalize these in the morning when lines are more readily available but for now this is what I have.

System Plays
NIU +11.5 vs #210 Buffalo
EMU +6.5 vs #180 Toledo
Greensboro +6.5 vs #238 Wofford
Citadel +9 vs #293 Samford
FAU +8.5 vs #195 South Bama
Portland St +6.5 vs #263 Sac St
Dartmouth +???? vs Cornell (will likely be high enough)
Eastern Washington +???? vs NAU (will likely be high enough)

"Just Missed"
Hofstra +5.5 vs #276 Wilmington
Towson +5.5 vs #183 Ga St
Nebraska-Omaha +6 vs #313 IUPUI
Eastern Illinois +6 vs #267 SE Missouri St

I'll be back tomorrow morning to confirm lines/rankings and lock them in.

diondublin PM diondublin
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 22
 
diondublin
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/8/2013 4:40:35 PM

kdawgy wrote:


But it's still somewhat early in conference play, and I don't know if I can put money on Miami of Ohio vs a Toledo team that has one 3 straight and is projected to finish 2-3rd in the conference. 

Doesn't that defeat the whole purpose of the system, which is betting (blindly) against teams that have given up.

I'm so torn. LOL

 

Makes sense in this sort of situation to have half your usual bet.

JROCK1966 PM JROCK1966
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 6456
Virginia
 
JROCK1966
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/8/2013 9:28:29 PM
Dartmouth
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/9/2013 12:52:12 AM

Easy cover and straight up winner with Dartmouth!

Feb 4: 1-1 system with UNA outright winner
Feb 5: No plays
Feb 6: 1-1 system
Feb 7: 2-3 system, 1-2 on "just missed"
Feb 8: 1-0 system with Dartmouth outright

YTD: System: 5-5 (2 outright winners) "Just missed": 1-2 (1 outright winner)

For Feb. 9: Going with readily available opening lines.

System Plays
NIU +11.5 vs #210 Buffalo
EMU +6.5 vs #180 Toledo
Citadel +7 vs #293 Samford
FAU +9 vs #195 South Bama
Portland St +6.5 vs #263 Sac St
Eastern Washington +6.5 vs #299 Northern Arizona

"Just Missed"
Hofstra +5.5 vs #276 Wilmington
Nebraska-Omaha +6 vs #313 IUPUI

Also, check the Dartmouth line for a possible system or "just missed" play tomorrow when line is posted. Cornell is #247 and will def be favored, only question is by how much? Game might also be postponed. I'll try to get in here to post if it's an official play.

Good luck!

Brailing PM Brailing
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 31
North Carolina
 
Brailing
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/9/2013 1:37:37 AM
Following your record. I am 2/3 on your plays. Interested to see how this plays out...50% now should only get better as we near the end.

Thanks for all your effort and time wvu and bol!!
TeaseDat PM TeaseDat
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 25
 
TeaseDat
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/9/2013 9:25:02 AM
Nice win yesterday boy's . Question I have... is there a site that has odds and the Ken Pomeroy rankings on one page? It's a pain in the behind to back and forth from two different internet pages!......?
bofadeez112 PM bofadeez112
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 42
 
bofadeez112
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/9/2013 9:32:19 AM
Big straight up winner last night! We will be seeing more and more of that in the upcoming weeks. Big board today boys.. Lets get it!
bofadeez112 PM bofadeez112
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 42
 
bofadeez112
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/9/2013 5:15:49 PM
Good looking start on the day with outright winners
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/10/2013 1:36:41 PM
Sorry for the late post for those following this but some things came up this morning.

Great day yesterday with the system going 4-2 with a straight up winner and the "just missed" going 2-0 with 2 straight up winners.

Feb 4: 1-1 system with UNA outright winner
Feb 5: No plays
Feb 6: 1-1 system
Feb 7: 2-3 system, 1-2 on "just missed"
Feb 8: 1-0 system with Dartmouth outright winner
Feb 9: 4-2 system with Eastern Washington outright winner, 2-0 on “just missed” with both outright winners.

YTD: System: 9-7 (3 outright winners) "Just missed":  3-2 (3 outright winners)

Today we have two system and two just missed.

System
Dartmouth +7 vs #242 Cornell (they    are currently getting rolled)
Louisiana-Monroe +8 vs #232 Louisiana Lafayette

“Just Missed”
Illinois Chicago +6 vs #163 Youngstown (line is at +7 now but opened +6)
JMU +6 vs #178 Drexel
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/11/2013 9:50:30 AM
Rough night. 2 blowout losses for the system and a 1-1 day with a straight up winner on the "just missed"

Feb 4: 1-1 system with UNA outright winner
Feb 5: No plays
Feb 6: 1-1 system
Feb 7: 2-3 system, 1-2 on "just missed"
Feb 8: 1-0 system with Dartmouth outright winner
Feb 9: 4-2 system with Eastern Washington outright winner, 2-0 on “just missed” with both outright winners.
Feb 10: 0-2 system, 1-1 just missed with Illinois Chicago outright winner.

YTD: System: 9-9 (3 outright winners) "Just missed":  4-3 (4 outright winners)

Interesting that all of the winners in the "just missed" category are outright wins.

One system play tonight. Furman +7 vs #274 Appalachian State
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/11/2013 9:59:40 AM
I'm going to include ODU +8 vs #155 Delaware in the "just missed" category.
cjm2008 PM cjm2008
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 15435
Ohio
 
cjm2008
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/11/2013 4:03:55 PM
I have been using the KP system along with Scores and Odds, Doc Sports, and CBS Sports Picks and have a record of  51-39 (+13.10 Units) for the year so far. I usually play 1-2 games a day and anywhere from 2-4 on Saturday.

It is best to combine a couple of different sources to get a more accurate picture on each game.




cjm2008 PM cjm2008
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 15435
Ohio
 
cjm2008
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/11/2013 4:06:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TeaseDat:

Nice win yesterday boy's . Question I have... is there a site that has odds and the Ken Pomeroy rankings on one page? It's a pain in the behind to back and forth from two different internet pages!......?



I agree, that is one of the drawbacks of Kenpom. I usually try to get 5-10 games from a couple opf other sources and then look at Kenpom.
kdawgy PM kdawgy
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1742
United States
 
kdawgy
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/11/2013 4:11:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cjm2008:

I have been using the KP system along with Scores and Odds, Doc Sports, and CBS Sports Picks and have a record of  51-39 (+13.10 Units) for the year so far. I usually play 1-2 games a day and anywhere from 2-4 on Saturday.

It is best to combine a couple of different sources to get a more accurate picture on each game.






Just out of curiosity, how are you "combining" these other sources with the KP system?  Because the KP system is pretty cut and dry; you can't really add any subjectivity to it.

Are you saying you are starting with the KP picks and then disqualifying some games based on other sources?  Or just that you play both?

Obviously for this thread the system is a slight loser right now.  But I always thought it would be a good system to martingale with as i believe you are getting the slightest of advantages over the long term. 

Also wonder how long the odds were on the straight up winners and if there's value in betting them.  I'm guessing most were +350 - +500, but all it takes is hitting one at +1,500 and you just paid for bets on all of them so far.
kdawgy PM kdawgy
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1742
United States
 
kdawgy
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/11/2013 4:14:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cjm2008:




I agree, that is one of the drawbacks of Kenpom. I usually try to get 5-10 games from a couple opf other sources and then look at Kenpom.


Ok, wait, there are two different systems.  The Kenpom system (betting with vegas when the lines disagree with the Kenpom prediction); and then KineProfessor's system which we are discussing here (where you fade home favorites that aren't ranked highly on Kenpom).

Just want to make sure you're discussing the same system we are.  Because I don't see why you would collect 5-10 games and then look at KenPom if you're using KineProfessor's system.  It would be more the opposite if anything. 
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/11/2013 4:36:37 PM
I'm going to ride this out for the remainder of the year good or bad. Keep in mind everyone that the true system as Kine used it did not start until the Bracket Buster Saturday and then went until the end of the regular season. So technically, we're still in the pre-system but I decided a while ago to start it Feb. 4. We'll see over the next 5 days leading up to bracket buster Saturday if that was a smart decision or not.
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/12/2013 9:41:29 AM
Nice 2-0 night, 1-0 system, 1-0 "just missed"

Feb 4: 1-1 system with UNA outright winner
Feb 5: No plays
Feb 6: 1-1 system
Feb 7: 2-3 system, 1-2 on "just missed"
Feb 8: 1-0 system with Dartmouth outright winner
Feb 9: 4-2 system with Eastern Washington outright winner, 2-0 on “just missed” with both outright winners.
Feb 10: 0-2 system, 1-1 just missed with Illinois Chicago outright winner.
Feb 11: 1-0 system, 1-0 "just missed"
Feb 12: No plays

YTD: System: 10-9 (3 outright winners) "Just missed":  5-3 (4 outright winners)

Back tomorrow.

cjm2008 PM cjm2008
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 15435
Ohio
 
cjm2008
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/12/2013 2:49:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kdawgy:



Just out of curiosity, how are you "combining" these other sources with the KP system?  Because the KP system is pretty cut and dry; you can't really add any subjectivity to it.

Are you saying you are starting with the KP picks and then disqualifying some games based on other sources?  Or just that you play both?

Obviously for this thread the system is a slight loser right now.  But I always thought it would be a good system to martingale with as i believe you are getting the slightest of advantages over the long term. 

Also wonder how long the odds were on the straight up winners and if there's value in betting them.  I'm guessing most were +350 - +500, but all it takes is hitting one at +1,500 and you just paid for bets on all of them so far.


I use a combination of Scores and Odds Power Ratings, Daily Computer Picks on CBS Sports, and Kenpom FanMatch predictions to look for line differences with the posted Vegas line.
I then like to use Kenpom to compare how a team has done home or away with teams of a similar kenpom rating as their opponent.

As an example tonight I am looking at the following game.

Indiana St -5

I started out the season with my  first 25 wagers at 64% winning rate but since then I am 35-31 (53%). Overall 51-40 (56%)

I did go and read about the Kine Professors system and I found it to be pretty informative. I may dabble with this also in the coming weeks.
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/13/2013 9:31:05 AM
Feb 4: 1-1 system with UNA outright winner
Feb 5: No plays
Feb 6: 1-1 system
Feb 7: 2-3 system, 1-2 on "just missed"
Feb 8: 1-0 system with Dartmouth outright winner
Feb 9: 4-2 system with Eastern Washington outright winner, 2-0 on “just missed” with both outright winners.
Feb 10: 0-2 system, 1-1 just missed with Illinois Chicago outright winner.
Feb 11: 1-0 system, 1-0 "just missed"
Feb 12: No plays

YTD: System: 10-9 (3 outright winners) "Just missed":  5-3 (4 outright winners)

System for today:
Wilmington +6.5 vs #226 Bill and Mary
Rice +12 vs #221 Marshall
Hofstra +10.5 vs #196 Georgia St

"Just Missed"
Fullerton +6 vs #161 Long Beach State
UC Riverside +12 vs #158 UC Irvine


j-walk PM j-walk
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 1632
United States
 
j-walk
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/13/2013 1:05:42 PM
If, and I think its a big if.........but if the books actually cared enough about this system they could purposely put lines in the "just missed" line spread to avoid people who play this system to jump on it.  Those possibly could be the strong plays if books themselves are filtering those ones out as the strong plays in this system.  Just a thought, highly unlikely though.
wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/14/2013 10:20:43 AM
2-1 system last night with a miracle cover by Wilmington. 1-1 on "just missed"

YTD: System: 12-10 (3 outright winners) "Just missed":  6-4 (4 outright winners)

Here's what we have going for today:

System:
App St +8.5 vs #190 Elon
St. Peter's +8 vs #184 Rider
Northern Arizona +7 vs #257 Northern Colorado

"Just Missed"
Austin Peay +5.5 vs #283 Eastern Illinois
Lou-Lafayette +6 vs #204 South Alabama




_action_ PM _action_
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 249
New York
 
_action_
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/14/2013 12:36:18 PM
my thoughts on this, i am only playing against teams below #200. the adjustment last year to #165 was because KP thought that there were more crappier teams. so before i actually hear his thoughts on where the # should be, i figure sticking to #200 and below makes more sense (i think the dude who played this before bracketbuster sat used #200 and below last year). limited stakes for me. remember mls, 1st halfs, parlays and playing non-lined conferences are big no no to the system. 

good luck guys. 
TeaseDat PM TeaseDat
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 25
 
TeaseDat
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/14/2013 12:46:53 PM
On them all wvu!
bofadeez112 PM bofadeez112
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 42
 
bofadeez112
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/14/2013 7:31:13 PM
Lets get it tonight! It's getting closer to the start of the system and I hope we can string some profitable days in a row.

wvu06 PM wvu06
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 238
West Virginia
 
wvu06
Participation Meter
Posted: 2/15/2013 9:27:00 AM
Rough night last night going 1-2 on the system plays with 2 tough losses that had a chance to cover. "Just Missed" goes 1-1

YTD: System: 13-12 (3 outright winners) "Just missed":  7-5 (5 outright winners)

Looks like 1 system and 1 "just missed" tonight.

The system play is Milwaukee +10 vs #170 Youngstown St

The "just missed" play is Cornell +5 vs #209 Yale

Good luck!
Forum: College Basketball Page 3 of 4  1 2 3 4  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.