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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: St Louis v. Butler
Slim-Daddy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: MGM Grand |
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#1
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:58:40 AM

RLM line movement from +2.0 to +2.5 on Butler even though 75% of the public is on Butler? Strange don't ya think? Let's see where this goes. Right now I'm thinking St. Louis covers easily.

 

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#2
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:22:33 AM
So obvious. Fade the public as they are on Butler at almost 87%.
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#3
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:26:16 AM

Public should be all over Butler. Thought that numer looked weird.

Where do you see the stats?

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#4
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:31:12 AM
 St. Louis ...
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#5
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:36:41 AM
Im leening early on Butler but,these 2 havent faced each other since 2003.

With Clarke back for da Bulldogs they certainly have a good shot here @ a win but the Billikens aint no push overs either. Both play stifling D. This might come down the last min n possibly last posession.

bol guys
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#6
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:40:57 AM

As everyone knows Butler moved from the Horizon League to the A-10 this year, and I'm not certain that the oddsmakers have made the adjustment. They've lined 5 conference games for Butler thus far, and the Bulldogs have covered everyone of them. I think the perception is that it is much tougher to win on the road in the A-10 than it was the Horizon, thus all these short numbers for Butler. I don't think this is any different and see Butler covering here again.

Where the over adjustment (or inflated number) will appear is when they go on the road to play teams like George Washington and Fordham.

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#7
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:41:52 AM
Alos like St. Louis
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#8
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:43:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PINNACLE:

As everyone knows Butler moved from the Horizon League to the A-10 this year, and I'm not certain that the oddsmakers have made the adjustment. They've lined 5 conference games for Butler thus far, and the Bulldogs have covered everyone of them. I think the perception is that it is much tougher to win on the road in the A-10 than it was the Horizon, thus all these short numbers for Butler. I don't think this is any different and see Butler covering here again.

Where the over adjustment (or inflated number) will appear is when they go on the road to play teams like George Washington and Fordham.

 

Pretty sure the oddsmakers have notice they moved

Im pretty sure the oddsmakers know more then we do .. and they have the sheep heading straight to the slaughter house on this one .

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#9
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:52:24 AM

The adjustment I'm referring to is lining games where there is little to no historical reference compared to putting a number on a conference game where none of the intangibles can be measured...like different travel patterns, different gyms, different teams...and such.

Smart behind

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#10
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:57:54 AM
Lining a game in the Horizon with a team (Butler) that has been in that conference for years is much different than lining an A-10 game with a team that's never played in the A-10 and historically has very seldom played teams from the conference. 
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#11
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:03:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by PINNACLE:

Lining a game in the Horizon with a team (Butler) that has been in that conference for years is much different than lining an A-10 game with a team that's never played in the A-10 and historically has very seldom played teams from the conference. 

 

And Your sure oddsmakers dont realize that or take that in to account .... good luck bro

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#12
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:20:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Teaser78:

 

And Your sure oddsmakers dont realize that or take that in to account .... good luck bro

Umm...apparently not. Oddsmakers set numbers in an attempt to get equal action on both sides.....that's no secret. And Butler has been a force on the national scene for years now. If they wanted to inflate Butler lines by a couple points knowing they'd still get the same amount of action on or against them, then they would. But they're not, and Butler is covering every game in their new conference. The adjustment has not been made yet...that is all I'm saying. If they were still playing in the Horizon League (at this point in the conference schedule) they'd have to be covering numbers that would be 2 to 3 points higher than what they are having to cover in the A-10 right now.

The adjustment process does not happen overnight...it takes time. This is exactly where notion of "soft" and "tight" lines come from. Traditionally, you get soft lines early and tight lines later on when there is more established historical data.

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#13
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:34:50 PM
There's been 3-4 big RLM games the past 2 weeks and the public has covered them all.  These lines are becoming so over adjusted lately that being with the public is better value than being on the sharp side.
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#14
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:39:19 PM
Makes sense, pinnacle. When does Butler become road favorites, in conference? That is the question.
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#15
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:40:06 PM
Always bet on unranked home favorites against in conference ranked opponents.  See Stanford and Oregon last night.  Same outcome tonight. 
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#16
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:44:01 PM
We shall see ... St. Louis wins and covers ..
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#17
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:44:06 PM

St. Louis always plays well at home, and at the pace they like to play at. It frustrates everyone they play, no matter how well coached.

Would prob by the hook to -2.

 

Also like Providence tonight as well.

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#18
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:49:26 PM
I'm takin st Louis moneyline...had LaSalle a few games ago when they were favs against butler and they won but didn't cover. Then I seen a similar situation with Virginia and Nc st the other day so I took Virginia mL instead of the -3. Won instead of pushing..today..kind of hesitant to take st louis with the spread so I took moneyline..don't want any funny business. Bol to u guys
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#19
Posted: 1/31/2013 1:22:25 PM
i agree, wouldnt be suprised if slu wins game but dont cover. i look for this game to be a pick em by gametime
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#20
Posted: 1/31/2013 1:48:52 PM
This reminds me of Oregon v's Stanford yesterday.....st Louis -2!!
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#21
Posted: 1/31/2013 2:06:14 PM
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#22
Posted: 1/31/2013 2:11:05 PM
St Louis SU
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#23
Posted: 1/31/2013 2:25:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by midnightprowl:

This reminds me of Oregon v's Stanford yesterday.....st Louis -2!!

This reminds me NOTHING of Oregon Stanford.

It reminds me very much of Dayton @ Xavier last night:

4 lead changes in the final 2 minutes and a 66-61 final.  

Flip a coin in this one.....I have Butler in my teaser +9.5 and am already counting my money.  This game will be played in the 60s and St Louis may win but they aren't winning by 10 against a team that has beaten: Indiana, Marquette, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Dayton, Vandy, etc.   Not to mention when healthy they are 17-2, 0-1 with injuries.  

Keep in mind these people who are taking St Louis could have been the same ones who said St Louis will lay the wood to URI and lost outright as a 15 point favorite.

Last night we had no idea how good either stanford or Oregon was.....they seem to both beat up average teams.

Oregon's resume: won against all the pac 12s UCLA, USC, Ariz & Ariz state.  Marquette, gonzaga and Indiana could beat all these teams.

Stanford's resume: Huge bubble team with no signature W; lost to Minny, lost to missouri, lost to NC state, lost to UCLA.  Last night was a signature W for stanford.  

St L might win but it won't be as emphatic.

GL folks.
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#24
Posted: 1/31/2013 4:50:26 PM
Wow-3
Money should start pouring in on Butler now.
Sheep to Slaughter!
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#25
Posted: 1/31/2013 4:58:25 PM

Vegas ... ringing the alarm .... Sheep to the Slaughter house ... keep them coming -3 .. money pouring in to Butler ...

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