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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: University of South Dakota Coyotes @ South Dakota State Jackrabbits... Thursday, January 31, 2013
jesron1269 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 1/30/2013 6:24:24 PM

7:00 p.m. (central time tip).  This is what I said in my NDSU/SDSU thread from this weekend.

"Jacks play again Thursday night against my alma mater the University of South Dakota Coyotes in the Frost Arena.  Great situational spot to fade the Jacks.  I have no doubt they win (to push record to 27 straight home wins) but I am certain they will be laying something like 15 to 17 points and while I know the Jacks hammered the Yotes last year at Frost I don't see the need in this case.  I am certain they have close to a double digit lead (if not a double digit lead) and sit on it second half.  This game will mean more to the Yotes than the Jacks.  BOL!"

 

I am happy to see that the early line is SDSU -16.  I am really curious to see which way this line moves.  I love getting the 16 points but after the burials SDSU has been giving teams lately I would not be surprised if this line did not move to SDSU -18.  However, if the line move quickly to -15.5 or -15 I will probably buy back up to 16 and call it good.  This play will not be as big of a play as the NDSU/SDSU play probably something like 2 units.  I might also have something on the 2H if I can post it while I am at the game.  I will be back later with my thoughts on the game.  BOL!

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#2
Posted: 1/30/2013 9:04:55 PM
Official is indeed -16.
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#3
Posted: 1/30/2013 9:40:57 PM
Go get him Jerson
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#4
Posted: 1/30/2013 9:41:32 PM
oops jesron 1269   
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#5
Posted: 1/30/2013 9:41:55 PM
thanks for educating the non-dakotans jes ... go south dakota! 
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#6
Posted: 1/30/2013 9:55:56 PM
Thanks my friend!   
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#7
Posted: 1/30/2013 11:30:24 PM
sailing58...
billywaddy...
TimmyT2...

BOL to you all. Will post more on this tomorrow.
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#8
Posted: 1/31/2013 12:04:59 AM
Thanks Jerson enjoy your write ups
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#9
Posted: 1/31/2013 8:34:28 AM
Yep up to -16.5... hope it keeps rising!
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#10
Posted: 1/31/2013 8:34:52 AM
Thanks syracusejoe and BOL!
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#11
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:03:12 AM
just heard Boots on public radio ... it sounds like he will use the same game plan tonight in this rematch. 
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#12
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:05:51 AM
Good stuff, Jesron. BOL tonight.
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#13
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:09:22 AM
GL Jes
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#14
Posted: 1/31/2013 10:49:21 AM
talent wise SDSU is way better, but this is a rivalry.  Bragging rights on the line, should be a spirited game.  Like the points also.
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#15
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:01:02 AM
So take south dakota is what u r saying?
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#16
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:03:26 AM
+16.5 at my book now? Pull trigger
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#17
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:16:01 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by billywaddy:

just heard Boots on public radio ... it sounds like he will use the same game plan tonight in this rematch. 

Well his gameplan in the Dome is not going to work in Frost.  I hope he makes the appropriate adjustments.  South Dakota State is very comfortable shooting in Frost and have never looked comfortable in the Dakota Dome.

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#18
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:16:53 AM

Jose_Reyes... Thanks and BOL to you too!

Theone324... BOL to you too!

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#19
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:17:38 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by allbees:

talent wise SDSU is way better, but this is a rivalry.  Bragging rights on the line, should be a spirited game.  Like the points also.

Agreed.  I have a few more angles I am working on here in a second and will post them.  BOL!

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#20
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:19:09 AM
Couldn't help myself..placed my bet @ +16.5. Bol today jesron...go yotes
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#21
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:19:18 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ysaelee87:

+16.5 at my book now? Pull trigger

Yes I am saying South Dakota (aka USD) or no play.  I have a feeling this line moves all day and we might get at least 17 to possibly 18 before tip.  Once it starts moving the opposite direction (i.e. past 16) then we need to lock in for sure.  But if I can get 17.5 I will buy to 18 and call it good.  BOL!

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#22
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:20:29 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ysaelee87:

Couldn't help myself..placed my bet @ +16.5. Bol today jesron...go yotes

No problem.  I liked getting 16.  I am just gambling a little more than you hoping that I can read the tea leaves (i.e. predict line movement).  Sometimes it has worked for me and sometimes I end up buy points.  BOL!

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#23
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:37:38 AM

I mentioned earlier that this might be a good situational spot to fade the Jacks.  The reason I say this is because I have seen this song and dance one too many times.  For example, on November 9, 2012 Jacks were dogs in the first game of the season, covered with ease and almost beat Bama at home.  The very next game was at home and they destroyed Tennessee State first half then sat on that lead and only won by 7.  On December 15, 2012 the Jacks were also again dogs entering into the game against Montana (where Montana boost a great home SU win record) they win straight up then travel to Belmont and get destroyed in the second half and end up losing by 27.  I know what you are saying well those are both two road wins (or near win in the case of Bama) and that does not compare to what we have and to that I would say you are correct sir.  Lets look at the last couple years.

The only game last year that would have the same circumstances of a big home win against a conference rival where they needed to win for the conference standings are as follows:  back on Februrary 2, 2012 the first place Oral Roberts team (undefeated in conference play at that point anyway) rolled into the Frost as a 2 point favorite.  They were lead by stud G/F Morrison (I believe he lead the Summit League in scoring last year to boot).  Well the Jacks steamrolled Morrison and ORU from the opening tip on the way to win by 15.  Does that sound familar to what happened last week?  Other than the first half the Jacks rolled NDSU to a 16 point win.  Lets ask what happened the next game?  Jacks ended up taking on the middle of the pack Southern Utah Thunderbirds and won by 10 and failing to cover the double digit spread (I think it was 14).

The year prior the only game that would come close to the same circumstances would be when Nevada Wolfpack invaded Frost fairlky early on in the 2010 campaign.  Jacks were I believe a 5.5 favorite in that game (I made a thread on that years ago) and ended up winning by 17.  In the same thread and the subsequent one I made later that week I predicted that NDSU who was a double digit dog would keep the game close and we should fade SDSU as a typical let down spot.  NDSU won straight up.  The Nevada game was the first time in a long time that an NCAA tourney team (meaning made the tourney the year prior) came to Frost so it was a packed house.  Last week emotions were very high where the Jacks knew they had to win to get back into the conference standings.  I feel the same emotional let down is coming.

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#24
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:42:01 AM
I know that last year SDSU beat down USD hard with a 30 point win in Frost.  I will submit to you that nerves were very much a part of that game for the Coyotes.  It was the first game in the mens program in nearly 9 years and several of the Coyotes wanted to win that game so bad because they got passed over by the Jacks and picked up by the Coyotes.  They were a nervous mess from the opening tip so no wonder SDSU destroyed them.  But I will give them and Coach Boots credit as the next two games USD has not only covered a double digits spread but won straight up against public enemy #1 for the Coyotes and Yote fans South Dakota State.  Now I have no illusions that USD is going to come into Frost and do something that not a team has been able to do in a little over 2 seasons and that is beat SDSU in Frost but I love taking the points.  If I am wrong I will feel much better taking the points than laying them in this game where I feel that SDSU is perfectly set up for a let down, USD wants this game more than SDSU and frankly I think that USD is underrated.
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#25
Posted: 1/31/2013 11:52:47 AM

Until last week where USD lost in the Dome against UNO as a double digit fav they had been playing some damn good ball.  This just goes to show me that they should never be laying double digits against anyone but I digress.  Lets look at the past month or so for the Yotes.  On January 19th then went into Oakland and won straight up by 19 after being a 13 point dog; on January 17th the lost by 2 at IPFW after being a 7 point dog; on January 12th they were a home fav to UMKC but lost by 4; then on January 5 they won straight up against SDSU after being an 11 point home dog.

USD has played teams like Wyoming; Gonzaga; Iowa; K-State; on top of their tough conference schedule.  So there is no question this team is battled tested.  They have only lost to NDSU by more than 16 in conference play.  If you take out the destruction against NDSU their average loss is by 3.25 points a game when they lose in conference.  If you add NDSU back into that average it is by 7.8.  They are 4-5 in conference play which is about middle of the pack in the standings.  They are 6-3 ATS in conference play.  They are 2-1 in conference play ATS when getting double digit points.

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