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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: My Terps vs. NCSU at Comcast
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#1
Posted: 1/16/2013 7:40:14 AM

13-13 on Terp games this season

I contemplated not posting for a couple of Terp games since we are so bi-polar right now and it's tough to add value when it's so unpredicatable as to what will show up for the Terps.  I decided to go ahead as I'm not posting this for the guys that bust your balls if you lose, I do it for the guys that understand this isn't an exact science and no matter how good I have been on Terps games for 5+ years, sometimes you lose alot of games by a point or two but it doesn't mean you haven't added value.  There, my therapy session is done.

Terps -1.5     Total: 149

Terps get home tonight after an ugly, ugly road performance against a Miami team that was very beatable if we had just played decent.  Really, they made it ugly but in the end we were two possessions from winning.  Young teams like the Terps have are prone to games like that, especially on the road.  That being said, we have three losses by 13 total points.   NCSU comes in tonight on about a big a high as they've seen in 10+ years.  The knocked off Dook Saturday in what was a pretty complete game.  I think the Pack team is very talanted but their D is a pretty big concern.  You're going to have to score 70+ to beat them as they are very balanced scoring-wise.

This Terps team plays very good defense and rebounds very well.  They are also very deep.  Those are easily my Terps three finest attributes.  The bad side is guard play, lack of offensive efficiency for long stretches and a lack of true leadership with the team so young.

Here's what I think you see tonight (but hell, I only watch every minute of every game so WTF do I know?):

1)  Faust to play the 1.  The time has come and he can't do any worse than Pe'shon and freshman Seth Allen have.  I think this will allow Turge to move Allen to the 2 where he can shoot without having to handle the ball as much.  Faust played the 1 last year to let Stogs shoot more and it worked pretty well,  He's not the optimal PG but he is big and athletic so I think this will help the offense run more effieciently.

2)  Pack in some foul trouble with our depth.  They don't play great D anyway and we have alot of bodies to throw at them.  Something like 6-7 guys over 6'8?  The Pack is like the little kid that wants to be playing offense the entire game and F defense.  Their starters are big and atheltic but can they play 38+ effective  minutes each like they had to against Dook?

3)  A jacked up , sold out crowd.  Terps will debut the Pride uniform for the first time tonight and our backs are against the wall.  Big time let down angle for the Pack after the Dook win.  ACC road game.  Terps better than they have played the last two games.  All add up as positives for the Terps.

I like the over here a little more than I like the Terps.  I think the Pack's lack of willingness to play D coupled with the fact that the Terps will have 4+ guys in double figures will lend itself to a high scoring affair.  Not saying the Terps will run with the Pack but we cannot shoot as poorly as we did at Miami or against FSU in the 2nd half so the total is a bit lower than it should be.  The Pack is in a very unfamiliar position as their fans have endured years and years of suck to medicrity and they have reason for hope.  I don't think they are there quite yet and tonight's game is a tall task for many reasons.   The intensity from the Terps should be much better than what we saw on the road.

Again, tail me if you want but this is a young team so we have to deal with the schizo part.

Plays:

Over 149 (double play)

Terps -1.5

 

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#2
Posted: 1/16/2013 7:45:05 AM
your work is much appreciated acc. Fuk the haters who have been on the site for a few days. GL 
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#3
Posted: 1/16/2013 7:48:35 AM

I have to be careful because my thought process is to take the opposition and just say, hey this Terp team is overrated and now coming back to earth.  It's so easy just to take the highly ranked Pack with all their studs.  I have to be careful not to lose sight that the Terps have talent and are playing at home.  They have two NBA players in the starting 5 (Len and Dez), one of whom is a lottery pick as a sophmore in college. 

I have learned over the years that the opposition is as good as they might be perceived and the Terps aren't as bad as I think when I get hard on them.  Add in playing at home and I like this play.

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#4
Posted: 1/16/2013 7:49:33 AM

Oposition ISN'T as good that should read.

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#5
Posted: 1/16/2013 7:51:30 AM
I REALLY like BC at home tonight as well.   Miami doesn't score enough to be laying 7.5 on the road to a feisty BC team.
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#6
Posted: 1/16/2013 8:45:17 AM
Ventures, I am with you on BC they play tough at home.  Not sure about your Maryland pick though.  Over the last three years the Terps are just 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 77 points per game and just 7-18 ATS against teams with a winning record after 15 games.  N.C. State has lost its last 4 trips to College Park and I know this is a spot for a letdown.  However, they are trying to match their longest win streak in the program's historey- 11 wins.  N.C. State is averaging 81 points per game over their last 5.  Maryland is only putting up 72 points per game, and this drops to 67 points per game in conference.  I just dont think the Terps can score enough points to win here.  It is a no play or a play on N.C. State in this spot.
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#7
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:00:15 AM

Great spot here. Really nice letdown spot for NCSU after they acted as if they won National Championship beating Duke. How can they act like that after they were picked to win the ACC. Man, State, act like you have been somewhere.

 

It's cliche (and I say this for most of my plays), but this is the definition of the sell high/buy low play.

 

Good luck tonight!

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#8
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:10:06 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ClemsonFan1:

Ventures, I am with you on BC they play tough at home.  Not sure about your Maryland pick though.  Over the last three years the Terps are just 1-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 77 points per game and just 7-18 ATS against teams with a winning record after 15 games.  N.C. State has lost its last 4 trips to College Park and I know this is a spot for a letdown.  However, they are trying to match their longest win streak in the program's historey- 11 wins.  N.C. State is averaging 81 points per game over their last 5.  Maryland is only putting up 72 points per game, and this drops to 67 points per game in conference.  I just dont think the Terps can score enough points to win here.  It is a no play or a play on N.C. State in this spot.

 

I don't think anyone is playing this match based on paper stats. Regardless, wagering that way is the path to ruin. Imo, NCSU is one the most immature talented teams in the nation. All you have to do is fluster them and you get a case of the head hanging (Note the OSU game). This match isnt about a prolific offense in NCSU vs a struggling MD team. It's about the letdown spot and NCSU overlooking a solid opp in a tough venue. It's pure value to grab a good team at home vs an overvalued opp who is coming off their biggest win in YEARS.

Good luck either way. Should be a good one.

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#9
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:14:22 AM
Lucrative, I will be watching and think it will be a good one as well.  I think sometimes trends play a part and I look at betting money and line moves(i.e. St. John's last night- 93% ATS and 95% ML was on Notre Dame and they lost outright).

I know each game is different, but Maryland looked terrible against Miami and was not impressed with Len at all.  He is only a perceived lottery pick due to his size, IMO.  However, Maryland is a tough place to go into and get a win for sure.
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#10
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:23:52 AM
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#11
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:39:16 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ClemsonFan1:

Lucrative, I will be watching and think it will be a good one as well.  I think sometimes trends play a part and I look at betting money and line moves(i.e. St. John's last night- 93% ATS and 95% ML was on Notre Dame and they lost outright).

I know each game is different, but Maryland looked terrible against Miami and was not impressed with Len at all.  He is only a perceived lottery pick due to his size, IMO.  However, Maryland is a tough place to go into and get a win for sure.

 

Personally, I rarely play trends. I know many think they are relevant and sometimes I do to (as in Wisconsin's dominance over Indiana the past few season that leads to a team "knowing" how to handle an opponent). Imo, trends are just ther eto make a bettor feel all warm and gushy about a play. I just dont see how what happened seasons ago relates to a play today. The only real exception I see is with soccer, where it seems history repeats itself.

I do like to look at where the bets/public is etc. I always like to be on the opposite of a square side, but that sometimes never correlates to a win and that style will ruin you as well. I just hate square plays, lol. I just think that chasing line moves, etc is all a cat and mouse game that will make your head explode.

I think Len is really good (or will be really good). He is raw talent. I saw him make a move to the backet in the close of the Miami game that was the real deal. 

But, like I said, this isnt about the players talent, etc. Its mostly about the spot.

 

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#12
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:46:19 AM
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#13
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:50:57 AM

appreciate your efforts and insights acc

BOL, and stay above the fray my friend

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#14
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:57:30 AM
All I read was you have to score 70 to beat nc st and they made th case.... Maryland is pretty overrated even when they were 13-1. Exposed by Florida st? Come on
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#15
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:22:01 AM
Best of Luck Brother
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#16
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:25:38 AM
Dont ever stop posting your Terps thoughts bro. This year is a battle, but I'm more worried about the war.



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#17
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:28:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Dont ever stop posting your Terps thoughts bro.




+1...one of the lone bright spots left at covers.
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#18
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:44:24 AM
NC State is the play boys and girls
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#19
Posted: 1/16/2013 11:44:26 AM
Completely agree with the two posts above. Keep posting your Maryland thoughts/plays. You are easily one of the most valuable assets this site has. I've always appreciated your insight and openly tail you
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#20
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:27:08 PM
Thanks man! I try.
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#21
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:31:36 PM
I'm heading down to Comcast tonight. Terps have a damn good record when I'm in attendance, here's to a high-scoring win.
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#22
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:31:51 PM
best terps insite in covers....
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#23
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:43:11 PM
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#24
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:44:51 PM
in your observations how have turgeon's teams bounced back after abysmal performances like the one against the canes ?
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#25
Posted: 1/16/2013 1:45:47 PM

this guy gives good info,  but than his ultimate picks sucks and are 100% biased no matter what he tells you,  I do hate when people rip on peoples picks and have never done so,  and ive lso never tailed this guy so im not biased.

 

but lets look at the facts hes only 13-13 on a team he has all this great info on,   he's missed atleast his last 3.   The Miami game the pub was all over Maryland and so was he and now tonight the pub is all over nc st ,  yet he takes Maryland anyways.   just proof hes picking with biases and nothing else.

 

that being said my pick of the day (not guna say yr and than have 75 picks of the yr like everyone else)   is Maryland tonight.

 

but only cus I always play against huuuge pub pix

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