|First off, I rarely post on the board but follow the various threads for insight on games throughout the week. For this game tomorrow I will be making a pretty substantial play on my alma mater which I swore off betting on after our VCU debacle.
Posted: 1/3/2013 11:22:49 PM
I'm not even taking the points but instead the ML when Memphis travels to Knoxville on Friday night. This game is a huge rivalry game no matter what UT fans proclaim. I've watched many UT games this year and know how difficult a time they have putting the ball in the basket and I see nothing changing by tomorrow night.
Memphis has grown into a very underrated team now due to our early losses in the Bahamas. We got ran over by two previously unranked top 25 teams while we were still searching for an identity after losing our top scorer and rebounder in Will Barton. We've continued to gel and with the addition of Geron Johnson we have found a new identity with his intensity and the ever present ability of a role player turned folk hero in DJ Stephens to swing the game by as little as one monstrous dunk.
We showed we can compete on a high level by storming out to a lead on Louisville by being up 17 in the first half. The refs had a hand in how that game ended and the margin of victory doesn't do justice for how close that game was against a top 5 team. On the other hand, I've watched UT several times thus year most recently last week against Xavier. UT managed 21 points at half and was down as much as 10 before they held Xavier (not and offensive juggernaut) without a FG for 9 minutes in the 2nd half. Also, Xavier's best big man was relegated to the bench the whole game by the coach for some reason. UT plays great defense but cannot score to take advantage of their presence to disrupt offenses. UT did have a big home court W in beating Wichita St. but somehow they won by 9 without hitting a FG for the last 6 minutes of the game only free throws.
With this all being said, I expect the game to be close for a while but Memphis has too much firepower on offense and can be very difficult to deal with on the defensive end when Geron and Joe disrupt the passing lanes. UT has one post player in Stokes, who played high school ball against the guys on Memphis so they will be extra hyped to show out against their former AAU teammate. Trey Golden and white trash McBee have gone cold from the outside. Reece, who played his first game of the year against Xavier seems to be the only one capable of knocking it down from long distance for UT.
Sorry for the long write up. I could go on and on about other facts supporting my bet. I swore off betting on my team but this game is in a great spot where we clearly have a huge talent and depth advantage while UT has been struggling offensively and lacks chemistry. I honestly do not know why we're getting points and I may look like an idiot tomorrow night but I'm laying the wood on Memphis ML, relaxing at a local bar, and watch my winnings pile in.
Memphis ML for 20 units - will post tomorrow when I get a ML for the final win total. Let me know if anyone sees an angle I'm missing.