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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: 1/4 Unbreakable POD - Memphis vs. UT
Unbreakable04 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Unbreakable04
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#1
Posted: 1/3/2013 11:22:49 PM
First off, I rarely post on the board but follow the various threads for insight on games throughout the week. For this game tomorrow I will be making a pretty substantial play on my alma mater which I swore off betting on after our VCU debacle. 

I'm not even taking the points but instead the ML when Memphis travels to Knoxville on Friday night. This game is a huge rivalry game no matter what UT fans proclaim. I've watched many UT games this year and know how difficult a time they have putting the ball in the basket and I see nothing changing by tomorrow night. 

Memphis has grown into a very underrated team now due to our early losses in the Bahamas. We got ran over by two previously unranked top 25 teams while we were still searching for an identity after losing our top scorer and rebounder in Will Barton. We've continued to gel and with the addition of Geron Johnson we have found a new identity with his intensity and the ever present ability of a role player turned folk hero in DJ Stephens to swing the game by as little as one monstrous dunk. 

We showed we can compete on a high level by storming out to a lead on Louisville by being up 17 in the first half. The refs had a hand in how that game ended and the margin of victory doesn't do justice for how close that game was against a top 5 team. On the other hand, I've watched UT several times thus year most recently last week against Xavier. UT managed 21 points at half and was down as much as 10 before they held Xavier (not and offensive juggernaut) without a FG for 9 minutes in the 2nd half. Also, Xavier's best big man was relegated to the bench the whole game by the coach for some reason. UT plays great defense but cannot score to take advantage of their presence to disrupt offenses. UT did have a big home court W in beating Wichita St. but somehow they won by 9 without hitting a FG for the last 6 minutes of the game only free throws. 

With this all being said, I expect the game to be close for a while but Memphis has too much firepower on offense and can be very difficult to deal with on the defensive end when Geron and Joe disrupt the passing lanes. UT has one post player in Stokes, who played high school ball against the guys on Memphis so they will be extra hyped to show out against their former AAU teammate. Trey Golden and white trash McBee have gone cold from the outside. Reece, who played his first game of the year against Xavier seems to be the only one capable of knocking it down from long distance for UT. 

Sorry for the long write up. I could go on and on about other facts supporting my bet. I swore off betting on my team but this game is in a great spot where we clearly have a huge talent and depth advantage while UT has been struggling offensively and lacks chemistry. I honestly do not know why we're getting points and I may look like an idiot tomorrow night but I'm laying the wood on Memphis ML, relaxing at a local bar, and watch my winnings pile in. 

Memphis ML for 20 units - will post tomorrow when I get a ML for the final win total. Let me know if anyone sees an angle I'm missing. 
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#2
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:28:25 AM
Memphis ML+120
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#3
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:41:42 AM
I definitely respect the personal team rule, I refuse to bet on the Niners or the Giants because I am too superstitious. The only other angle I see here are just a couple small things.

Tennessee is 6-0 at home while this is Memphis’ first home game.

Memphis forward Tarik Black (10.9 points per game, 5 rebounds per game, 7 steals per game, and 8 blocks per game) is expected to miss tonight’s game with a groin injury.

Tennessee has their fair amount of injuries as well too. You definitely know Memphis better than I do, and I haven't taken either side yet. I really appreciated your write up, let us know if you end up taking the 20 units ML for Memphis! Ps. Do you mind me asking what your typical unit is? I might play a little on them ML for good luck
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#4
Posted: 1/4/2013 12:04:19 PM
Thanks for the reply. I'm a 9ers fan as well and if I ever do bet on them I always get burned haha. 

That being said, Tarik has been out the past couple of games which hurts us with the lack of an athletic big in the middle. He's doubtful to play tonight which I don't expect him to nor made my bet with worrying about him. If Maymon was healthy for UT and Tarik was out I'd stay away from the game. UT's only big that can score is Stokes and he has been so up and down lately with it all coming to a head last game against Xavier when he was benched most of the 2H after yelling at an assistant coach. He settles too much for jumpers outside 12 feet and if he would punish the post he'd be unstoppable but I don't see that happening. 

I'm really confident with this game. Unless TN somehow breaks out of this shooting slump they're in and hits an ungodly amount of 3's which I don't see happening then it could be extremely close. This is a rivalry game and will be a battle I just think our team is deeper and more athletic. We can throw many different scoring options at them and if Adonis gets out of his funk then we can start making some serious noise. 

I'd like to see what your system shows for the game as well lady. A normal unit is $100 for me. By far my largest bet of the season. Only time I went close to this big was on Florida twice when it was a 15 unit bet against Fla St at home and then when they blew it at AZ and lost a 7 point lead in the last 50 seconds which was a kick in the stomach to say the least. Either way u go good luck just my opinion on the game. 
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#5
Posted: 1/4/2013 12:36:01 PM
You're extremely persuasive.

My system had the following:
Tennessee -2 1/2 The final score would be: Tennessee 68 Memphis 63
Tennessee would cover by 2 1/2
.

You convinced me to stay off of Tennessee already, now I am leaning on Memphis!




(My system is 14-7 year to date)
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#6
Posted: 1/4/2013 12:40:36 PM
The line just dropped to -1 1/2. I think Vegas read your write up
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#7
Posted: 1/4/2013 12:43:12 PM
Thanks for the input!

Just my opinion and how I see it playing out based on how I've seen both teams perform so far this season. UT plays great defense but just can't score. Anyway ill let fate decide what happens at 7 tonight.

Hopefully it's a good night for me and another for the system you're trying out. 

GL
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#8
Posted: 1/4/2013 12:45:09 PM
Let me know if you play that 20 unit ML!
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#9
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:50:25 PM
Best of Luck
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#10
Posted: 1/4/2013 1:55:43 PM

I like Memphis when I first saw the line myself.  I respect your analysis am now going to make Memphis a 2 unit play due to your detailed thoughts.  I wish nothing but the best for us both and thank you for sharing your thoughts and play!  BOL!

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#11
Posted: 1/4/2013 2:45:41 PM
SportsFreak69  GL as well

Jesron appreciate the write ups on a team I rarely followed. Have successfully cashed your last 2 plays. Especially that gold mine 1H line last night. GL thanks for the insight. 

Locked my bet in on my local book. Memphis ML +120 20U to win 24U. Good luck everyone
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#12
Posted: 1/4/2013 3:21:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Unbreakable04:

SportsFreak69  GL as well

Jesron appreciate the write ups on a team I rarely followed. Have successfully cashed your last 2 plays. Especially that gold mine 1H line last night. GL thanks for the insight. 

Locked my bet in on my local book. Memphis ML +120 20U to win 24U. Good luck everyone

... that is what this website was designed for... to allow people who know something/angle to post it so that everyone can succeed.  I am glad you hit on the Jacks.  They play again next Thursday against Oakland and I am expecting the Jacks to be laying 10-12 points.  I will probably be playing Oakland.  When you know a team so well (like you do with Memphis) sometimes your gut plays just as important a role as anything else.  BOL to us both tonight and especially you as you have 10x the size of wager on this game.  Nice new year gift to you if you win!  BOL!

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#13
Posted: 1/4/2013 4:20:58 PM
Lol... Glad to see you're not bias.

Hate betting on road favorites, and especially not when the team is playing it's first true road game of the year on the road vs. a rival.  BOL
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#14
Posted: 1/4/2013 4:28:15 PM
I am also a Memphis alum and I am betting against my tigers...black out, crawford shooting so bad he is now limited to only taking one shot a game, turnover joe jackson, mr. miss freethrows shaq goodwin = a Memphis loss. Hope im wrong tho

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#15
Posted: 1/4/2013 4:30:39 PM
i agree with you....i had Memphis ML marked down on my sheet....
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#16
Posted: 1/4/2013 5:03:59 PM
Usually not a good sign backing a team on its first road game, especially in a rivalry like this.
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#17
Posted: 1/4/2013 5:15:22 PM
 gl
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Posted: 1/4/2013 6:00:09 PM
Honestly I'm not bias towards my team I'm very realistic of who we are. We're playing UT on the road not Duke so let's not act like this is a crazy idea. I've watched several of their games this year and along with ours I think in this spot I have a great bet. 

We're not favorites btw EB14 hence I'm ignoring the points we're getting and taking the ML. 

Either way you all go I believe I have the right play tonight. It's time for our team to step up and beat a middle tier SEC team on the road. If UT was scoring 70 points a game I wouldn't be on it as much as I am. Their offense is stagnant no matter who they play and although it's a rivalry game, first true road game, etc I believe we have enough firepower and defense to win outright. I show no bias because I clearly state I never bet on my team. Good luck all, leaving work and heading for some pregame drinks my friends and I will be partaking in for the next few hours. . Hopefully it'll be a great night. 
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#19
Posted: 1/4/2013 7:20:39 PM
I disagree on this one but GL to you....

Tigers have beaten no one....first real road game and Vols have beaten Xavier and Witchita St at home and played a much tougher schedule...


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#20
Posted: 1/4/2013 7:49:18 PM
Who in here is in Memphis , I'm in collierville. Where is best place to drink and watch game?
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#21
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:05:57 PM
Great analysis ! Thanks for the pick.
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#22
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:11:22 PM
Congrats and thanks for the analysis!
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#23
Posted: 1/4/2013 10:15:32 PM
Love it. Everyone have a great night. I'm on Ole Miss tomorrow big as well. 54K tickets bought and 48K are ole miss fans. I hate ole miss but I'm laying the wood on them -3.5. Lets get it. Have a good night everyone. 
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#24
Posted: 1/4/2013 11:59:44 PM
came across your write up, looked at the numbers and made it my only wager..... thanks for the tip.

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#25
Posted: 1/5/2013 6:39:35 AM
Great call last night, thank you
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