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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Mizzou @ UCLA
TRAIN69
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#1
Posted: 12/28/2012 2:50:36 AM
Mizzou is the the #1 rebounding team in the nation @ 47 per game (17 offensive). This is actually the most important stat in basketball. Limiting opponent opportunities and creating more for yourself is the name of the game.

They have held every opponent except LVille under 42% from the field and are currently 14th in the nation allowing teams to shoot just 35.5% from the field..

This is Mizzous 1st true road game, but its during break so it wont be like a mid January game. Bruins have faced 2 decent teams ; GTown and SDSt, and have lost both.

Mizzou is one of the deepest teams in the nation with a solid transfer class this year (Brown, Oriachi, Ross, & Bell) to go with Pressey & Bowers. Mizzou has 9 guys averaging 11 mins or more (as does UCLA, but productivity drops way off)

Pressey is better than Shabazz and the Mizzou bigs are better than the Wear boys and freshman Jordan Adams is gonna find it a little tougher going imo.....

Bruins just gave up 78 on 47% shooting to Fresno St, a team that averages 59 and shoots 38% and is not in the top 300 in just about any major offensive category.....

However, with the crazy things I saw in college football yesterday.....who knows!



Mizzou +2.5 (BIG - almost Large)

Mizzou 1st h/game +225

Mizzou -20.5 +3000



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#2
Posted: 12/28/2012 2:53:34 AM

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#3
Posted: 12/28/2012 3:15:03 AM
mizzou
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#4
Posted: 12/28/2012 3:49:17 AM
where do you get that prop bet for -20.5?
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#5
Posted: 12/28/2012 3:51:01 AM
Lets get it
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#6
Posted: 12/28/2012 10:01:05 AM
I was skeptical of this Mizzou team when they beat Stanford. I had them on the game but wasn't too impressed. The win against Illinois proved to me that they are legit. This UCLA team is a joke, they got pounded by the only decent opponents they faced and even lost to Cal Poly Slo at home. This game reminds me a lot of the CAL vs UCLA game last year. Where UCLA opened as a -3 fav at home, only to get pounded by the Bears; especially on the boards. This UCLA is obviously more talented and I've seen weird things in Bball. But based on what I've seen so far, I'll take Mizzou + the points tonight. Gl train
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#7
Posted: 12/28/2012 10:11:08 AM
 with ya
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#8
Posted: 12/28/2012 10:22:46 AM
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#9
Posted: 12/28/2012 10:41:58 AM
On it Train! Thanks! Bol this evening.
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TRAIN69
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#10
Posted: 12/28/2012 10:46:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jtoler:



Its amazing how you can tell if someone is a douche in real life by their simple posts on covers.....


Really didnt think the line would go past 3......So, some additions.....


Mizzou +4.5 -120

Mizzou -20.5 +4000
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#11
Posted: 12/28/2012 10:59:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



Its amazing how you can tell if someone is a douche in real life by their simple posts on covers.....


Really didnt think the line would go past 3......So, some additions.....


Mizzou +4.5 -120

Mizzou -20.5 +4000
Mizzou aint winning by 21 or more, they just may be lucky to win.
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#12
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:01:40 AM

I think Missouri's rebound numbers may be a bit inflated at this point of the season though.  The one team they faced that can rebound blew them out of the building (Louisville).  From what Ive seen, the entire offense is run through Pressey and Missouri's defense is not that great.  I think Shabazz has a break out game tonight.  I also think you might be overvaluing the Illinois win.  They won at Gonzaga and everyone is ready to crown them as being back, but I think they are going to take a lot of lumps in the Big Ten.

BOL to you.  I took UCLA -2 right when the line came out.  Definitely wouldnt be taking them at -4.5 though.  Lets hope for a 3 point UCLA win.

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#13
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:06:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by berghawk:

I think Missouri's rebound numbers may be a bit inflated at this point of the season though.  The one team they faced that can rebound blew them out of the building (Louisville).  From what Ive seen, the entire offense is run through Pressey and Missouri's defense is not that great.  I think Shabazz has a break out game tonight.  I also think you might be overvaluing the Illinois win.  They won at Gonzaga and everyone is ready to crown them as being back, but I think they are going to take a lot of lumps in the Big Ten.

BOL to you.  I took UCLA -2 right when the line came out.  Definitely wouldnt be taking them at -4.5 though.  Lets hope for a 3 point UCLA win.



So besides MU being over rated, why do you like UCLA? What have they done to make you think they can beat a decent team and not just whoop up on Cal Poly.....Oh, wait....


Shabazz wont like playing vs Pressey and Haiths defense....

All that said, its college bball and a road game for Mizzou.....You may very well be correct sir
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#14
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:06:59 AM
UCLA way too much size, and will be up for this game, night game as UCLA is used to, Mizzou coming off tough game against Illini, this is an uphill battle for Mizzou and they know it.
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TRAIN69
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#15
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:07:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jtoler:

Mizzou aint winning by 21 or more, they just may be lucky to win.


Duh, thats why its now 40-1 ......
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#16
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:13:38 AM
Just added a little Mizzou ML +160 . I really dont think it will get any better.....
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#17
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:15:22 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



So besides MU being over rated, why do you like UCLA? What have they done to make you think they can beat a decent team and not just whoop up on Cal Poly.....Oh, wait....


Shabazz wont like playing vs Pressey and Haiths defense....

All that said, its college bball and a road game for Mizzou.....You may very well be correct sir

 

Just a hunch I guess.  That's why Im sticking with 1 unit on it.  More of a fade against Missouri than a bet on UCLA.  The pace of this game will be important if Missouri cant score in the secondary break, I think they will struggle.  Missouri's offense goes solely through Pressey setting other guys up and I think Pressey will struggle against length.  One thing that Ben Howland's teams have typically done well in the past is hedge the ball handler on screens.  Will be interesting to see how Pressey attacks them and how Howland will approach his defense since Missouri hasnt exactly had any other guard step up at this point since Michael Dixon was dismissed for being accused of rape earlier this semester.  Hedging might be against what you want to do against a team like Missouri.  If they keep Pressey out of the lane, I think it will look ugly on offense for Missouri.

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#18
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:38:22 AM
line now -3.5
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#19
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:39:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Just added a little Mizzou ML +160 . I really dont think it will get any better.....



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#20
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:44:54 AM
Good Luck Train, As soon as I saw the spread, I was kinda surprised that UCLA was the favorite.
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#21
Posted: 12/28/2012 11:58:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jtoler:

UCLA way too much size, and will be up for this game, night game as UCLA is used to, Mizzou coming off tough game against Illini, this is an uphill battle for Mizzou and they know it.


LOL WTF are you talking about? UCLA only has one real "post" player (Tony Parker), who doesn't even really get minutes. Their other "post" players are the Wear twins, who are super soft. If UCLA is going to have a chance, Kyle Anderson needs DD rebounds and Shabazz and Jordan Adams and Norman Powell are going to need to combine for 14 or so total.

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#22
Posted: 12/28/2012 12:01:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by berghawk:

 

Just a hunch I guess.  That's why Im sticking with 1 unit on it.  More of a fade against Missouri than a bet on UCLA.  The pace of this game will be important if Missouri cant score in the secondary break, I think they will struggle.  Missouri's offense goes solely through Pressey setting other guys up and I think Pressey will struggle against length.  One thing that Ben Howland's teams have typically done well in the past is hedge the ball handler on screens.  Will be interesting to see how Pressey attacks them and how Howland will approach his defense since Missouri hasnt exactly had any other guard step up at this point since Michael Dixon was dismissed for being accused of rape earlier this semester.  Hedging might be against what you want to do against a team like Missouri.  If they keep Pressey out of the lane, I think it will look ugly on offense for Missouri.



The team this year isn't doing it very well at all -- the Wear twins aren't quick enough to get over and hedge effectively like guys like Mbah a Moute, Aboya, and Mata-Real in the past, and if the Wears aren't doing it well, then you know Tony Parker doesn't have the foot speed to do it yet (or the playing time, honestly). This team is nowhere near as good defensively as its coach's reputation would lead you to believe and has been playing a lot of zone because they can't guard guys straight up in a man defense.
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#23
Posted: 12/28/2012 12:02:14 PM
Line is now -4.5


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#24
Posted: 12/28/2012 12:02:35 PM
... and it drops right back down to -3.5. Strange.
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#25
Posted: 12/28/2012 12:05:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by kaponofor3:



The team this year isn't doing it very well at all -- the Wear twins aren't quick enough to get over and hedge effectively like guys like Mbah a Moute, Aboya, and Mata-Real in the past, and if the Wears aren't doing it well, then you know Tony Parker doesn't have the foot speed to do it yet (or the playing time, honestly). This team is nowhere near as good defensively as its coach's reputation would lead you to believe and has been playing a lot of zone because they can't guard guys straight up in a man defense.

Ive heard rumblings that Tony Parker is unhappy and toying with transfering?  Is that true? 

As I mentioned, trying to hedge Pressey may actually help him because he would then create switches that UCLA cant guard, so if they cant hedge and Howland sits back and forces him to shoot from the outside, I think it actually benefits UCLA.

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