Today`s Meditation

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Today`s Meditation
DaBuddha PM DaBuddha
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Posted: 11/30/2012 9:18:04 AM
YTD: 13-2

Happy with ND last night, as a UConn fan I have seen that exact game play out playing at ND too many times.  Nice to have a game turn out as you visualize.  Took a little on Southern Utah and Florida, but talked myself out of LaSalle :(  Oh well, great night anyway.

Haven`t gotten too much into the games today, only 12 so I will have time later.  Only 2 potential reverse line moves today and they are Syracuse now at -7.5 at Arkansas and Louisiana Tech now +2 at Georgia State.  Again, haven`t capped or meditated on any games yet, just saw these line moves.  Last night, the 60% qualified reverse line move games were 3-0.

Good luck everyone, lets find some winners!!!

 & Namaste
DaBuddha PM DaBuddha
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Posted: 11/30/2012 9:23:43 AM
To clarify, that line move in the Syracuse game is from -8 down to -7.5 eventhough anywhere from 65-75% of public bets are on Syracuse, thus Arkansas would be the reverse line move pick.

I see some sites with over 60% of picks on Louisiana Tech and the line has moved from +1.5 up to +2.  Thus, the reverse line pick would be Georgia State.

2 tasty home dogs?  Going to see just how yummy...


jmac80 PM jmac80
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Posted: 11/30/2012 10:14:32 AM

What sites do you go visit to determine your percentages of what people are on?

 

Thanks.

madisonmike PM madisonmike
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Posted: 11/30/2012 10:21:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DaBuddha:

To clarify, that line move in the Syracuse game is from -8 down to -7.5 eventhough anywhere from 65-75% of public bets are on Syracuse, thus
Arkansas would be the reverse line move pick.

I see some sites with over 60% of picks on Louisiana Tech and the line has moved from +1.5 up to +2.  Thus, the reverse line pick would be Georgia State.

2 tasty home dogs?  Going to see just how yummy...



I like the way you don't solely base your pick on the reverse line movement and still give it some thought.. BOL with your picks
capskip PM capskip
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Posted: 11/30/2012 10:32:07 AM
Bol tonight...
lzylghtn PM lzylghtn
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Posted: 11/30/2012 11:10:52 AM
I like your posts on this site. keep up the great work.
DaBuddha PM DaBuddha
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Posted: 11/30/2012 11:13:05 AM
Thanks guys, love any input/discussion too!  Just a humble dude trying to pick some winners...
daniellem PM daniellem
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Posted: 11/30/2012 11:22:20 AM

Have you back tested any games with rev line movement?, curious to see how it does overall

lzylghtn PM lzylghtn
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Posted: 11/30/2012 1:10:33 PM
It also looks like Texas State & Auburn have slight reverse line movement with over 60% going other way.

Texas State has gone from -3 to -2.5 with 70% on Utah.

Auburn has gone from pick em to -1 with 62% on DePaul.

source of movement: Sportsbook Spy

Just thought I would mention these and ask your thoughts Buddha.
lzylghtn PM lzylghtn
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Posted: 11/30/2012 1:14:08 PM
scratch the Texas State, I got screwed up...lol... sorry, about that.
EarnMoney PM EarnMoney
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:07:16 PM
Reverse line movements seems to work but dont thing it is legitment enough to put your money on. Have been following those for football often but hasnt been that great. Gluck on whatever you do buddha! 
DaBuddha PM DaBuddha
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:12:47 PM
Thanks for the info lzy....

Now Louisiana Tech is back down to +1, and they have a big public betting % (depending on the site).  So scratch them for now in the reverse line move dept.

Looks like Arkansas +7 is a serious reverse line movement bet.  Almost all sites have public backing Syracuse at over 70% and line moved a full point (in some places to 6.5) against Syracuse. Hmmm...

Looking at the game, I think Arkansas does look like a nice bet.  At home against the young Syracuse PG (has been impressive thus far) & 2 freshman, the Hogs and their fans should be all fired up.  Love these home dogs early in the year against teams still figuring out how to play together and their rotations (see UK last night).

DaBuddha PM DaBuddha
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:15:27 PM
Arkansas played terrible last couple games, but their big man was in foul trouble and limited in both.  Think I will lock this game in a bit later...
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:17:01 PM
Don't read too much into reverse line movement, it will get you killed some days.  Take it from a guy who used to try it lol

They're messing with the Syracuse line to confuse guys like you into over-thinking things.  Syracuse is heads and shoulders better than Arkansas, and the Orange will win this game in blowout fashion. 
DaBuddha PM DaBuddha
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:31:35 PM
Thanks Pasteur, I don´t bet based solely on reverse line movement. Just one of the factors I consider.  Of course the public is not always wrong with their ¨obvious¨ picks, but logically if the big money is coming in against the public, there is usually a reason for that.  These people betting big money against the ¨obvious¨ side research and know more than the public bettors.

So I take a deeper look at these games.  Last night they were 3-0, I didnt take Florida because I liked Marquette to keep up somewhat.  I was wrong, just like the public.
nurich PM nurich
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:42:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Don't read too much into reverse line movement, it will get you killed some days.  Take it from a guy who used to try it lol

They're messing with the Syracuse line to confuse guys like you into over-thinking things.  Syracuse is heads and shoulders better than Arkansas, and the Orange will win this game in blowout fashion. 

earl1932 PM earl1932
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:54:49 PM
DREAMERS......
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:54:55 PM
Yes yes, but how do we know which side big money is coming in on?  Should we believe the commonly accepted notion that line movement is based on sharp money? 
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 11/30/2012 2:55:45 PM
Nice record though.  Success speaks for itself so keep doing what you're doing, since it seems to be doing just fine for you!
DaBuddha PM DaBuddha
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Posted: 11/30/2012 4:12:59 PM
Yeah Pasteur, whatever works, right?  I am never caught in a "system," trends or any of that stuff.  The only way to win in my opinion is stay disciplined and be as well informed as possible.  Good luck too, I saw in your thread you are on Syracuse.... 
tuck321 PM tuck321
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Posted: 11/30/2012 4:21:05 PM
Thoughts on Oregon State?
shamuu PM shamuu
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Posted: 11/30/2012 5:20:55 PM

dabudda,,,is da man,,,thanks for being here with us,,,lol,,,shamuu

 

AAY PM AAY
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Posted: 11/30/2012 6:10:08 PM
Good Luck
A1LOVER4EVER PM A1LOVER4EVER
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Posted: 11/30/2012 6:23:03 PM
 BUDDA BLESS
DaBuddha PM DaBuddha
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Posted: 11/30/2012 8:13:06 PM
Going with Arkansas +8.5, only play tonight... Eventhough I don`t eat meat, going to love me some pig suey tonight!!


Good luck all......use your winnings wisely....
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