YTD: 3-1
2011-'12: 34-23
2010-'11: 2-3-1
2009-'10: 14-7
It’s been a few days since my last post (win on the StBon/Cornell Over on 11/14), but a nice opportunity today presents itself as the early season opponents of one team involved has skewed their offensive statistics downward.
Play: George Mason / Quinnipiac Over 132
Through 4 games this season, George Mason has scored 63, 56, 52, and 69 points (60 ppg avg) – not the ideal team to have involved when backing an over. However, digging a little deeper, we see that they’ve played 3 teams ranked lower than #286 in terms of pace and all 4 opponents were ranked in the top 100 with respect to adjusted defensive efficiency – so low scores were to be expected.
Tonight they face Quinnipiac – a team that finally breaks the mold of teams looking to play defense at a deliberate pace. The Bobcats play at an above average pace (67.4 poss / gm) and have already given up 1.08 ppp vs Iona and 1.03 ppp vs UConn in the Paradise Jam. Combined with the fact that the game should see a possession count in the high 60’s (KenPom predicts 68) – 1 point per possession will get this over
One last aspect to like – Q has played back to back overtime games which should translate nicely to a lack of intensity on the defensive end as they’ve almost played an extra half of basketball this weekend (not to mention giving a game away to their “big brother” UConn yesterday).
Good luck if you decide to make a play
BOL
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