Tennessee State vs. South Dakota State - Tuesday, November 13, 2012 @ 7:00 p.m.

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Tennessee State vs. South Dakota State - Tuesday, November 13, 2012 @ 7:00 p.m.
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/11/2012 11:19:46 PM
This is the home opener for the defending Summit League Champs.  South Dakota State University returns home after an impressive showing against Alabama.  The Frost Arena has always been good to the Jackrabbits so I fully expect them to be favored coming into this game the question is by how much?

SDSU shot the ball real well and should have won versus Bama, but they covered and the game went over. Tennessee State got whipped by BYU, failed to cover and there was no total for this game.  As far as I can tell this is the first time these two teams have met so there is not history to rely on.  Heck it appears that neither of these teams have played against each others conferences in several years too so any history there would be moot given the current rosters of each team.

Tennessee State has a very poor road record.  They are 8-22 the last couple of years.  They appear to have some decent senior leadership with a couple nice players.  They are not overly big so I think they will matchup well for South Dakota State.  They do not have the best perimeter defenders according to their stats from last year (well and the BYU game this year).  I think that unless South Dakota State cannot hit the broad side of "the barn" (I say that because the old basketball stadium where they practice now is called the barn) then they should be able to cover this game with ease.

Given it is a home game, given the tempo South Dakota State showed against Bama I would put the line at...

South Dakota State -8.5 and the total at 138

I would lean South Dakota State and over.  I will probably lay off the total and just play the side in this game as I really do not know much about Tennessee State.

BOL to all!
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/12/2012 12:23:22 PM
Still no line yet but we know the look up number.  Meaning we should have a line by this evening.  BOL!
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/12/2012 6:29:17 PM
The early line shows up as SDSU -10.5 so just slightly more than my original projection.  I will monitor this and post before tomorrow what my play is going to be.
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/13/2012 11:04:24 AM
Still no release on the total and the side is holding steady.  Money line is -650.
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/13/2012 12:37:47 PM
Line up to 11 now.  While South Dakota State is good ATS when favored by double digits last year (2-1 ATS) so is Tennessee State on the road when getting double digits (4-2 ATS last year and 17-7 since 1997).  As I looked at what South Dakota State did last year they destroyed most teams at home.  I fully expect that they would like to do the same this year if given the opportunity.  Tennessee State went on a nice run last year and covered nearly all of their road games (won many of them straight up including #7 ranked Murray State) to close out the season.  Tennessee State hung with BYU for a while until they pulled away and made a run at trying to cover but could not pull it off.  The BYU line was -12 and they ended up losing by 15.  What keeps me from pulling the SDSU trigger at this point is the fact that I know playing in Frost is a tough place but I doubt any tougher than playing in Provo, UT.  I am going to watch the line some more but it might be a no play tonight.  We shall see.
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/13/2012 7:53:50 PM
So I am going to cheat a little here.  I know SDSU wins but I just cannot get a handle on how much due to me not knowing much about Tennessee State.  I would be guessing on the line.  It is hard for me to take any road dog when I know they have NO SHOT at winning so that makes it hard for me to take Tennessee State.  Further, the line makers refuse to release a total.  Therefore, the following is my only play on this game:

KENTUCKY +10; SDSU -5 & OAKLAND +15 in a three team 6 point teaser for 1.6 units.  BOL!

2-0  +2.4 units
Jose_Reyes PM Jose_Reyes
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Posted: 11/13/2012 8:11:04 PM
Good luck jesron.  Love your writeups, and appreciate the in depth analysis you provide.  I hopped on your squad at -11.  Think they can knock a few more jumpers down at home, giving Wolters some help.  Admittedly don't know much about Tennessee St. either, but they have traveled a ton over the last few days.  Basically my thought process right there.  Either way, just wanted to thank you for posting your insight.  Good luck with your play.


jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/13/2012 8:33:41 PM
Thanks Jose_Reyes... Jacks up by 15 and hoping they really pour it on.  Has been a good game so far.  BOL!
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/13/2012 8:44:31 PM
15 point lead.  Curious what the 2H line will be.  Will post here if one is released.  BOL!
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/13/2012 8:49:10 PM
South Dakota State -2.5 2H.  I would definately lean SDSU 2H as I do not see them letting up the way they are playing.  Moreover, the SDSU bench is out playing the Tennessee State bench so even if they go there once Tennessee State goes there I think they continue to pull away.  However, I am not playing it as I do not see much value in the play.  BOL!
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/13/2012 10:07:08 PM
Well SDSU won by 7.  I really wish they would have put a total on this game at 145 or less as I would have cashed on the over.  But they never released a total on this game.  SDSU pissed the 2H down their leg.  17 point lead at one point to win by 7 due to missed free throws, stupid fouls and horrible 2H defense.  My only play is still alive but sorry Jose_Reyes for the loss.  They should have covered with ease for you.
CoverLane PM CoverLane
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Posted: 11/13/2012 10:24:25 PM
I had a feeling this line was a bit inflated...I saw SD STate -11
jesron1269 PM jesron1269
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Posted: 11/13/2012 11:50:47 PM
Teaser = 

3-0  +4.0 units on the season
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