Vegas vs Kenpom System Week I

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Vegas vs Kenpom System Week I
2dawgnation2 PM 2dawgnation2
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Posted: 11/13/2012 3:35:24 PM
**edit** when I say most books and their number, I mean majority of sportsbooks and the opening line they use. This of course oer the claim V.I. Makes. 
2dawgnation2 PM 2dawgnation2
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Posted: 11/13/2012 3:40:16 PM

Last question:

What is it that supports only playing the 1st half per the criteria? Thanks guys....i like what you are doing, I just sometimes play devils advocate to get better perspective.

flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/13/2012 5:45:15 PM
Beaver has done some looking at past results and it was determined last year that 1H plays hit better than full games. Here is a post he made in his other thread:

"Here are some stats I have already compiled from last season:

Full Games:
347-306-12 (53.14%)
1st Halfs:
363-285-17 (56.09%)

The official plays will be 1st half plays this season"
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flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/13/2012 5:46:25 PM
As far as the opening line, we took the opening line overall (which is usually BetOnline) and use that. The site beaver posted earlier in this thread looks like it is a good one for openers.
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beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/14/2012 12:21:04 AM
2dawg,
I'm not ignoring your questions...just short on time.

3-0 tonight to get us back to 3-3.

Checking potential tomorrow plays now.

Wife and I had one hell of a time at the GA Dome tonight
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/14/2012 12:29:54 AM
Florida
W.Ill
Neb Omaha
San Diego

are all potentials tomorrow
jtoler PM jtoler
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Posted: 11/14/2012 12:31:37 AM
Told ya youll finish around 50%, therefore not worth it. 
flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/14/2012 9:01:47 AM
Yup 6 game sample size is probably enough to call this season off. Thanks so much jtoler for your input.
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SudburyDowns PM SudburyDowns
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Posted: 11/14/2012 9:18:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

Yup 6 game sample size is probably enough to call this season off. Thanks so much jtoler for your input.

I swear to God how can people not have that filter in the brain that stops them from saying dumb things?
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/14/2012 9:20:02 AM
We can all ignore jtoler, I looked some other posts of his, he posts stupid stuff like this everywhere he goes. Just trying to get a rise out of someone
jtoler PM jtoler
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Posted: 11/14/2012 9:21:51 AM
I mean over whole season Ive seen this tracked before as well as RLM always around 50% which is no surprise.
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jtoler PM jtoler
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Posted: 11/14/2012 9:25:39 AM
No rise only trying to save you some time but typical mistake my kindness for the opposite.
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SudburyDowns PM SudburyDowns
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Posted: 11/14/2012 9:31:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jtoler:

I mean over whole season Ive seen this tracked before as well as RLM always around 50% which is no surprise.

I'll take 1st Halfs: 363-285-17 (56.09%) anytime.

Last years NCAABB contest winner JD232 had a record of 53.52% up 63900... pretty close to 50%.  

If you don't like the system, move on!
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/14/2012 9:36:15 AM
Official Wednesday Plays

All First Halves

Florida -3.5 (HFA)
W.Ill pk (RFT)
Neb Omaha +7 (RDT)
UC-Riv +6 (HDT)
PimpJzH PM PimpJzH
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Posted: 11/14/2012 10:42:33 AM
capskip PM capskip
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Posted: 11/14/2012 1:11:10 PM
BOL tonight buddy....
beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/14/2012 10:53:39 PM
Solid 3-1 tonight. Making it 6-1 over the last two nights
underwraps12 PM underwraps12
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Posted: 11/14/2012 10:54:31 PM
Yep very nice Great Job
capskip PM capskip
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Posted: 11/15/2012 7:43:51 AM
Beaver should be atleast 4 plays for thursday.Thanks...
flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/15/2012 9:41:02 AM
Potential plays for Thursday:

NC State
Nebraska
Cal Poly
Idaho St

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PimpJzH PM PimpJzH
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Posted: 11/15/2012 12:00:29 PM
flyer when can we lock em in buddy? 
Parlaymaster17 PM Parlaymaster17
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Posted: 11/15/2012 1:42:23 PM
What's the play for todat
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underwraps12 PM underwraps12
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Posted: 11/15/2012 2:00:27 PM
Flyer,  I think u missed UMASS

kenpom -2  usatoday opener -4.5
flyerlax06 PM flyerlax06
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Posted: 11/15/2012 2:32:26 PM
I think we go by the Vegas open for the difference so at -4.5 the difference would have to be at least 3. If not then it would be a potential play but there has been a ton of movement on that line all the way to 8.5-9. Not sure the value is there anymore. Beaver will correct me if I'm wrong.
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beaverfan23 PM beaverfan23
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Posted: 11/15/2012 2:33:28 PM
Official Thursday Plays
All first Halves

Nebraska +3 (HDT)
Cal St Northridge +3.5 (RDA)
Idaho St +5 (RDT)
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