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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Vegas vs Kenpom System Week I
2dawgnation2
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#26
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:25:28 AM
Based on how I believe it to be read, Maryland is a huge play Monday night
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#27
Posted: 11/12/2012 9:34:46 AM
2Dawg, you are figuring the plays correctly. Maryland would be a play, but their public percentage is above 60, so it does not quite fit into the system.

Enjoy the marathon, but sorry no system plays.
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#28
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:17:43 PM
Just to clarify what beaver is talking about:

Bowling Green-Dog-currently 76% in Covers Consensus
Florida St.-Fav-currently 75% in Covers Consensus
Maryland-Fav-currently 69% in Covers Consensus
Eastern Wash-Dog-currently 69% in Covers Consensus
Rhode Island-Dog-currently 53% in Covers Consensus

Beaver's notes from first post:

I will not be wagering on the Dogs that have over 50% of the bets according to covers contests.

I will not be wagering on the Favorites that have over 60% of the bets according to covers contests.
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#29
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:10:10 PM
Interesting stuff.... Will be watching this all season
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#30
Posted: 11/12/2012 4:07:22 PM
What was the record after day 1? 
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#31
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:28:51 PM
0-3
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#32
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:45:35 PM
To give you some idea as to what the system is capable of though, through 11/19/11 last year the system was:

24-15-1 (62%)

Beaver has done a lot of work on sharpening the system over the course of last season and has lessened the number of plays by excluding the public favorite games (see notes in his initial post) and adjusting the "difference scale" because there would be some Saturday's with 20+ plays which was not easy on some of our bankrolls. I have confidence in this system (it made me $ last year) and will continue to use it as long as it continues to be profitable. I have faith that a couple weeks from now we will forget about the 0-3 start.
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#33
Posted: 11/12/2012 9:07:29 PM
Seeing 6 potential plays for tomorrow. Going to have to wait for Kenpom to re-calculate and see what the consensus %'s are tomorrow.
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#34
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:10:09 PM
Flyer...which ones do you see?  I did a quick run through and only saw Duke
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#35
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:36:17 PM
I see 5 potenial:

Duke, Mich St, Detroit, Oakland, Tennessee St
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#36
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:40:49 PM
Duke open at -2 KP has +2

Mich St open at -1.5 KP has +1

Detroit open at -2 KP has -7

Oakland open at -7 KP has -10

Tennessee St open at -10 KP has -13
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#37
Posted: 11/12/2012 11:50:56 PM
Good luck
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#38
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:28:34 AM
Where are you getting those opening numbers from?
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#39
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:54:02 AM
Looks like you are getting them from the first opener on covers, which has been different from the "opener" on maddux sports.  I have been looking around all night and I found this site

http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/usatoday/odds.aspx

if usatoday can trust these lines for their openers, I can too.  That will be the offical site for opening lines (I believe they will be the same as covers, but easier to see)


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#40
Posted: 11/13/2012 12:55:54 AM
The opener line on maddux isn't actually the first line for each game. Usually Betonline is so I've been clicking on the Betonline line to get line history and using that opening line since its truly the first opener on maddux.
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#41
Posted: 11/13/2012 1:12:13 AM
flyer and beaver: thanks for all the hard work. I realize how much of a grind this is and I appreciate you guys doing this for us.

i'll be tailing all season 
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#42
Posted: 11/13/2012 2:56:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

The opener line on maddux isn't actually the first line for each game. Usually Betonline is so I've been clicking on the Betonline line to get line history and using that opening line since its truly the first opener on maddux.

All lines originate offshore not in Vegas.  It's been that way for the past decade or so.  For opening lines you should use Pinny
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#43
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:13:13 AM
damn. games have already started this morning.
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#44
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:50:51 AM
Official Tuesday Plays

Detroit +2.5 1H (RDT)
Duke Line Pending
Oakland Line Pending

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#45
Posted: 11/13/2012 2:33:46 PM
why not detroit for full game dont u play fh and full game
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2dawgnation2
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#46
Posted: 11/13/2012 2:37:04 PM

Wouldn't Butler over Xavier fit?

 

KP Has X -1

Veg Has But -4.5

 

Consensus polls have But less than 50%

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#47
Posted: 11/13/2012 2:53:13 PM
kenpom long beach -1 meanwhile usc is -8
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#48
Posted: 11/13/2012 3:06:10 PM
The system plays are all only 1H plays. As for Butler/Xavier: the initial opening line had Xavier -2.5 and Kenpom has Xavier -2. Not a big enough difference. The Long Beach St/USC game: opening line was USC -1 and Kenpom has USC +1. The difference needs to be at least 2.5 points for a play.
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#49
Posted: 11/13/2012 3:28:50 PM
We use the opening line to determine plays. That is why butler and USC are not included. 

Lines for other two games:
Duke -1.5 1h
Oakland +4.5 1h
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2dawgnation2
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#50
Posted: 11/13/2012 3:32:29 PM
I guess the biggest discrepancy is where are these "opening lines" coming from. Im looking at Vegasinsider the day before the games are played and using the opening consensus line which the site claims is the majority of books in VEGAS and what their number is. Unless one can prove to me differently, I do not see how we can validate anything better. Offshore sportsbook lines are often skewed and off the path. Im not arguing what's happening here, I'm just trying to validate and make it as efficient as possible. I really like this method of manufacturing wins...but can use some tweaking on this part.
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