Probably play some selective favorites early. Spreads of +20 or so usually work out for the elite teams early. The other thing I like to look for is home openers. If the teams are in the same weight class I usually like the home team. Always like to look at big conference schools vs. smaller conference schools.
All of these plans may and will contradict but there will be some jewels out there. GL, Doc
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Probably play some selective favorites early. Spreads of +20 or so usually work out for the elite teams early. The other thing I like to look for is home openers. If the teams are in the same weight class I usually like the home team. Always like to look at big conference schools vs. smaller conference schools.
All of these plans may and will contradict but there will be some jewels out there. GL, Doc
Here are my thoughts, you can take them for what they are worth:
Like most sports, I feel that early in the season I look for dogs with value. Early season lines are based in some major part on how good the teams were LAST YEAR, not how good they were this year. So I look for teams that look to be improved, especially teams that were REALLY BAD last year but this year they might just be "below average". You will often find teams like that that are dogs in almost every game and they keep covering but losing outright, and as a result, they still have a crappy record and the line doesn't adjust until at least December or so. Teams that put up awful records like 3-28 or 5-26 usually improve the next year -- they still lose but they are often somethinmg like 10-20 or 12-18. But early in the year, they are getting HUGE lines based on last year's horrendous performance. I'll be back in a week or so with a list of teams that I think might fit that mold this year.
Early in the season I look for teams with experienced point guards, and try to avoid, or fade, teams breaking in new point guards with no experience, even if the team might have a lot of talent. You won't see me betting on freshmen laden teams, even when they have the kind of talent Kentucky is bringing in, in November/December.
Another thing I never do is bet on the big confference favorite hosting the small conference team in an opening game (i.e. Wofford at Georgia Tech or Sacramento State at UCLA). I have just seen too many times that the big conference team comes out flat in their first game and doesn't cover, occasionally even losing outright. In a game like that I am either going to find something I like in the small school and take the points, or more likely pass altogether.
And sort of as a corollary to that -- I have found that a lot of teams don't show their "true colors" in the opening game. So when it gets to be late November and teams have 2 or 3 games under their belts, I don't put much weight on what they did in their opening game. I have seen too many teams come out poor in the opening game and tempt me to fade them in subsequent early games, but then they get it together and play well, If a team looks like crap in their first game but looks strong in the next couple games, I will throw out the results of the first game entirely when trying to gauge their talent level.
It gets a lot tougher once conference season starts. The one thing I really try to avoid in converence season is conference road favorites.
There are so many teams that I don't TRY to handicap every game. I pick and choose, I pay attention to scores and if I see a team that might appear to be doing better or worse than expected, then I will pay close attention to them and look very closely at their games.
0
Here are my thoughts, you can take them for what they are worth:
Like most sports, I feel that early in the season I look for dogs with value. Early season lines are based in some major part on how good the teams were LAST YEAR, not how good they were this year. So I look for teams that look to be improved, especially teams that were REALLY BAD last year but this year they might just be "below average". You will often find teams like that that are dogs in almost every game and they keep covering but losing outright, and as a result, they still have a crappy record and the line doesn't adjust until at least December or so. Teams that put up awful records like 3-28 or 5-26 usually improve the next year -- they still lose but they are often somethinmg like 10-20 or 12-18. But early in the year, they are getting HUGE lines based on last year's horrendous performance. I'll be back in a week or so with a list of teams that I think might fit that mold this year.
Early in the season I look for teams with experienced point guards, and try to avoid, or fade, teams breaking in new point guards with no experience, even if the team might have a lot of talent. You won't see me betting on freshmen laden teams, even when they have the kind of talent Kentucky is bringing in, in November/December.
Another thing I never do is bet on the big confference favorite hosting the small conference team in an opening game (i.e. Wofford at Georgia Tech or Sacramento State at UCLA). I have just seen too many times that the big conference team comes out flat in their first game and doesn't cover, occasionally even losing outright. In a game like that I am either going to find something I like in the small school and take the points, or more likely pass altogether.
And sort of as a corollary to that -- I have found that a lot of teams don't show their "true colors" in the opening game. So when it gets to be late November and teams have 2 or 3 games under their belts, I don't put much weight on what they did in their opening game. I have seen too many teams come out poor in the opening game and tempt me to fade them in subsequent early games, but then they get it together and play well, If a team looks like crap in their first game but looks strong in the next couple games, I will throw out the results of the first game entirely when trying to gauge their talent level.
It gets a lot tougher once conference season starts. The one thing I really try to avoid in converence season is conference road favorites.
There are so many teams that I don't TRY to handicap every game. I pick and choose, I pay attention to scores and if I see a team that might appear to be doing better or worse than expected, then I will pay close attention to them and look very closely at their games.
I look at the coaching changes if applicable, and the style of offense and defense they run as opposed to the past style ran. Like college football, it takes a while to get used to a change of tempo/base defenses that old recruits weren't brought in to run. I like to fade those teams against a consistent program early on until teams can get a good baseline avg. to handicap. Takes a lot of work to research, but it's seemed to work for me. Good luck to you which ever way you decide, get paid this season!
0
I look at the coaching changes if applicable, and the style of offense and defense they run as opposed to the past style ran. Like college football, it takes a while to get used to a change of tempo/base defenses that old recruits weren't brought in to run. I like to fade those teams against a consistent program early on until teams can get a good baseline avg. to handicap. Takes a lot of work to research, but it's seemed to work for me. Good luck to you which ever way you decide, get paid this season!
Here are my thoughts, you can take them for what they are worth:
Like most sports, I feel that early in the season I look for dogs with value. Early season lines are based in some major part on how good the teams were LAST YEAR, not how good they were this year. So I look for teams that look to be improved, especially teams that were REALLY BAD last year but this year they might just be "below average". You will often find teams like that that are dogs in almost every game and they keep covering but losing outright, and as a result, they still have a crappy record and the line doesn't adjust until at least December or so. Teams that put up awful records like 3-28 or 5-26 usually improve the next year -- they still lose but they are often somethinmg like 10-20 or 12-18. But early in the year, they are getting HUGE lines based on last year's horrendous performance. I'll be back in a week or so with a list of teams that I think might fit that mold this year.
Early in the season I look for teams with experienced point guards, and try to avoid, or fade, teams breaking in new point guards with no experience, even if the team might have a lot of talent. You won't see me betting on freshmen laden teams, even when they have the kind of talent Kentucky is bringing in, in November/December.
Another thing I never do is bet on the big confference favorite hosting the small conference team in an opening game (i.e. Wofford at Georgia Tech or Sacramento State at UCLA). I have just seen too many times that the big conference team comes out flat in their first game and doesn't cover, occasionally even losing outright. In a game like that I am either going to find something I like in the small school and take the points, or more likely pass altogether.
And sort of as a corollary to that -- I have found that a lot of teams don't show their "true colors" in the opening game. So when it gets to be late November and teams have 2 or 3 games under their belts, I don't put much weight on what they did in their opening game. I have seen too many teams come out poor in the opening game and tempt me to fade them in subsequent early games, but then they get it together and play well, If a team looks like crap in their first game but looks strong in the next couple games, I will throw out the results of the first game entirely when trying to gauge their talent level.
It gets a lot tougher once conference season starts. The one thing I really try to avoid in converence season is conference road favorites.
There are so many teams that I don't TRY to handicap every game. I pick and choose, I pay attention to scores and if I see a team that might appear to be doing better or worse than expected, then I will pay close attention to them and look very closely at their games.
0
Quote Originally Posted by SteveA2009:
Here are my thoughts, you can take them for what they are worth:
Like most sports, I feel that early in the season I look for dogs with value. Early season lines are based in some major part on how good the teams were LAST YEAR, not how good they were this year. So I look for teams that look to be improved, especially teams that were REALLY BAD last year but this year they might just be "below average". You will often find teams like that that are dogs in almost every game and they keep covering but losing outright, and as a result, they still have a crappy record and the line doesn't adjust until at least December or so. Teams that put up awful records like 3-28 or 5-26 usually improve the next year -- they still lose but they are often somethinmg like 10-20 or 12-18. But early in the year, they are getting HUGE lines based on last year's horrendous performance. I'll be back in a week or so with a list of teams that I think might fit that mold this year.
Early in the season I look for teams with experienced point guards, and try to avoid, or fade, teams breaking in new point guards with no experience, even if the team might have a lot of talent. You won't see me betting on freshmen laden teams, even when they have the kind of talent Kentucky is bringing in, in November/December.
Another thing I never do is bet on the big confference favorite hosting the small conference team in an opening game (i.e. Wofford at Georgia Tech or Sacramento State at UCLA). I have just seen too many times that the big conference team comes out flat in their first game and doesn't cover, occasionally even losing outright. In a game like that I am either going to find something I like in the small school and take the points, or more likely pass altogether.
And sort of as a corollary to that -- I have found that a lot of teams don't show their "true colors" in the opening game. So when it gets to be late November and teams have 2 or 3 games under their belts, I don't put much weight on what they did in their opening game. I have seen too many teams come out poor in the opening game and tempt me to fade them in subsequent early games, but then they get it together and play well, If a team looks like crap in their first game but looks strong in the next couple games, I will throw out the results of the first game entirely when trying to gauge their talent level.
It gets a lot tougher once conference season starts. The one thing I really try to avoid in converence season is conference road favorites.
There are so many teams that I don't TRY to handicap every game. I pick and choose, I pay attention to scores and if I see a team that might appear to be doing better or worse than expected, then I will pay close attention to them and look very closely at their games.
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