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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Intro to College Basketball Betting
KineProfessor send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
KineProfessor
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#26
Posted: 10/29/2012 9:47:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EMaynor:

KP, great post my friend 

One question--
You mentioned that you never watch your bets, and you normally stay away from bigger conferences. I agree with both those statements. How do you obtain information from those mid-major conference teams in which games aren't televised? I've always viewed that as a double-edged sword because the teams I am most familiar with as the season rolls on are the ones that are on TV the most.

Just curious on how you watch these teams, or at least gather information to help make your wager selections 


From a stats-based perspective I use kenpom, espn insider, blue ribbon and a handful of other resources.  I follow beat writers on twitter and have website links saved of local newspapers who follow particular teams.  I use Google news every single day.

College basketball is a game matchups and you would be surprised how many times your eyes will deceive you.  For instance, College of Charleston might look incredible one night, but its mainly because they are facing a perimeter-based team with suspect ball handling and a few nights later they are facing a completely opposite team, but because you watched CofC demolish their opponents in the last game, your instinct it to bet them again regardless of looking at the matchups.

That being said, I don't watch/bet NATIONALLY televised games.  I basically have every channel directv offers and watch lots of games on the sports package but even more so, sites like espn3 (now watchespn) has tons of mid-major conference teams and games to watch online every single night. 

For me, the numbers and the game reports from the writers who follow the teams are much more important than actually watching the games themselves (for example I have bookmarked an awesome blog written by a young writer who follows UNC Wilmington, his game previews, injury reports, and game recaps were among the best I've read and serve as the best tool possible when betting that particular team).

I watch the games more for enjoyment rather than a handicapping tool.  Hope that helps
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#27
Posted: 10/29/2012 9:53:35 PM
Here's today's blog post from the aforementioned writer: It has more information than you would ever want (or need) about a closed door scrimmage UNC Wilmington had this weekend against Coastal Carolina:

http://dubhub.blogs.starnewsonline.com/18341/hoops-m-peterson-discusses-scrimmage/
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#28
Posted: 10/30/2012 1:34:00 PM
I know you like the Southern Conference or at least playing the Southern Conference. It was by far my most profitable conference to bet in last year. Talking to a kid that played at Samford last year the other day and he is of course extremely high on Davidson and he thinks UNCW will be very good. I had a great feel for Wofford last year but they lost 3 seniors (I think) and played a very short bench last year. I would love to hear your take on the conference this year.
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#29
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:06:00 PM
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#30
Posted: 10/30/2012 9:44:07 PM
Good stuff
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#31
Posted: 10/31/2012 2:05:40 AM
kine prof
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#32
Posted: 11/1/2012 9:39:13 AM
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#33
Posted: 11/2/2012 8:57:54 PM
Glad to see you back Kine.  Really enjoyed playing (and winning) with you last season.

One question I was pondering: I seem to remember EVERYONE getting creamed betting the 24 hour marathon to start the season last year.  Got me to thinking, is there a pattern there?  Or was it just bad luck?

Any thoughts on that?  Any angle that could be taken advantage of?
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#34
Posted: 11/2/2012 10:03:25 PM
Welcome back slugger, missed you.
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#35
Posted: 11/3/2012 3:42:03 AM
I agree with Kine about watching games but for me it's a different reason. I watch them and flip around and then the next day do the same and by the end of the 1st month I can't get a good grasp on what I've really seen and what I thought I saw. One night it's a tournament game with so and so and the next night it's 2 teams in different tournaments and then back to national games with someone else playing on ESPNU and then the local FOX games.

 At some point there is a overload and it's hard to accurately remember the pertinent things about each game. I'll be trying to figure a Ol Miss game and then wonder was that a Miss. St. game I saw against FAU. or FIU.? I thought it was Ol Miss but was it Miss. So.against FSU? 

 Kine said it "your eyes will deceive you".   Your overloaded brain might deceive you especially if your still playing NCAAF games.

Watching the games is fine but there are a lot of them!  Kine has this conundrum figured out better than me.

GL,    Doc
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#36
Posted: 11/3/2012 6:09:08 AM
I was hoping to see you post KP.  I'm a huge fan.  Have another great season buddy!
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#37
Posted: 11/3/2012 9:15:58 AM
The uncluttered mind.  Smooth and easy. No fear. Don't worry about the fix. There isn't one. If every $50 or $5 bet shakes your world then you shouldn't be here.  Just bet it!   Fear is your enemy, not bad luck. Bad luck is temporary.  Fear is chronic.
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#38
Posted: 11/3/2012 11:10:12 PM

Great post KineProfessor

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#39
Posted: 11/4/2012 9:14:53 PM
Good stuff 
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#40
Posted: 11/5/2012 1:17:26 AM
GOOD garbage I'M NOW A FOLLOWER OF kp
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#41
Posted: 11/5/2012 12:01:48 PM
I never bet CBB, but great insight.  I'll be following your posts.
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#42
Posted: 11/5/2012 2:58:11 PM
College basketball ate my lunch last year.  Mostly because of tilt plays that kine mentioned.  I am embarrased that happened but certainly learned from it.  That said i have not been tested thus year as i have had nothing short of a miraculous football season.  I 

If i had to guess conservatively i am somewherebin the neighborhood of 75-25 on the year.  This weeks 20-1 ungodly performance certainky helped( i have finally found out how to take a screenshot of my card but dont know how to post it). 

Imwill say this about watching the ames.  The lottery i just hit this weekend happened without me watching a single game as i was in europe.  I spent much more time crunching numbers and the results were obviously quite literally unbelievable,  that said i do believe i am able to watch games objectively with or w/o money on it.  I still see the same things and when a bad call goes my way i recognize it and acknoweledge it.  20-1 does not happen without some luck.  Good luck KP and other posters.   Based on my atrocious record in cbb i may have to start real slow but ill be lurkin.  Any advice on the 
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#43
Posted: 11/5/2012 2:59:03 PM
Screen print?  Some guys in the nfl forum seem to really want to see it.  Thanks
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#44
Posted: 11/5/2012 4:24:25 PM
Great post Kine!!

Hope you have a great season!!
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#45
Posted: 11/5/2012 5:46:35 PM

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#46
Posted: 11/5/2012 6:19:50 PM

Kind of upset I wasnt on your list

 

 

kp

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#47
Posted: 11/5/2012 10:32:57 PM
Cheers to a profitable season
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#48
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:56:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ManRam24:

Sign me up for:

A, B, C









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#49
Posted: 11/6/2012 12:10:10 AM
Nice to see you again KP. I teach in the MAC (NIU) and have seen their scrimmage. NIU will win about 8-9 games this year max, very young, 7 freshmen. MAC East is again where all the strenth is (Akron/Kent). Some things never change. Will you be posting pics through the season?
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#50
Posted: 11/6/2012 4:06:57 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KineProfessor:

Thought I'd post a few thoughts that have helped me be a consistent winner over the last five years.

My personal philosophy (in cbb wagering and in life) is to see what "everyone" is doing and do the opposite.  The truth is that 90-95% of the posters on this forum will lose their money very quickly and/or reload half a dozen or more times during the season.  Success (and failures) leaves clues.  The losing players do the following things: 
together

All the reasons listed. Yep you know about the majority of us on here.  The past few months I have really begun to see the real picture. Its a slow process and that never really clicked with me. I plan to do my best to stay on pace with you this year as well as some of the above cappers you mentioned. I appreciate the post, regardless of the info that you included (which was great) just by the effort you have put into helping out the forum community says alot, it says that you want to help. 

BOL this season!

3 dayyssssssss

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