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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Title Hoops
nropp11
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#1
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:46:07 PM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 67-46, +85.65
March Leans: 42-39
Year: 293-237, +163.10
Year Leans: 244-242


Personally, I feel there is one factor to tonight’s game that will determine the winner and that’s it. Just one. How well does Kansas shoot from the perimeter? That’s how I see it. They aren’t the best perimeter shooting team, but they’re going to have ample opportunities against a team that doesn’t pressure like Kentucky. If you watched the Louisville game, you saw a team that took the ball to the basket relentlessly, and just a poor gameplan early. Yes, you have to attack to keep the defenders honest, but I thought it was a bit too much. I think you’ll see Kansas focus on getting the ball inside early tonight, but the outcome of this game should depend on how well they shoot it from the outside. A few things to note here, Tyshawn Taylor is 0-20 in domes from beyond the arc, definitely a cause for concern. Kansas is coming off a high-pressure tough defense in Ohio State, so that might take its toll on some tired legs in terms of the jump shot. In terms of going against a team that doesn’t pressure on the outside, Kansas has not fared well at all. Only one time this season did they shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc against a team that doesn’t utilize pressure on the outside, and that was Texas Tech. There were thirteen other instances this year where these guards had every opportunity to make a jump shot against no pressure, and the results were not all that great. In those thirteen games, they attempted 231 shots from the perimeter, and made only 61 of them. That’s a whopping 26%, and that’s against no pressure. That would concern me if I’m backing the Jayhawks. Not from the standpoint of being able to hit those shots on the biggest of stages, but from the standpoint of not being able to do it for some reason all that great on the year. They’re going to have opportunities, in fact, this is probably their best source of scoring within the match-ups tonight, and I think this is factor #1 of importance. Factor #2 sort of depends on how well they shoot the ball as well. I think it’s been pretty obvious that this isn’t one of the best Bill Self teams of past years, but they’ve made it a point this entire tournament to “muddy” up the game, or to make it dirty and ugly for that same point. If you’re not the most talented, then you have to switch up the style. I think this becomes a problem tonight. In order to do this against a Kentucky team that likes to get out in transition at just about every opportunity, they’re going to have to hit shots. If they can’t score from the outside, they can’t dirty up the game and they’ll be playing catch-up. Simply put, if they aren’t knocking down shots, they can’t defend the way they want to. They can’t get pressure early in the front court and focus on getting turnovers against Kentucky if they aren’t making shots. They can’t utilize any type of full court press if they aren’t hitting shots. The analysis sounds pretty simple. If Kansas makes its shots; it has a chance to stay in the game. If they don’t, then it’s going to get away from them pretty fast. I think Kansas holds value just because they’re the one taking shots with no-pressure, and if that is the case, they’re the ones controlling how this game plays out. Of course, as indicated above, they haven’t done well shooting the ball against these styles, so I’m going to lay off, but I see a bit of value with revenge. I also see value in Kentucky as well. They’re coming off a tough defensive pressure sometimes in the full court and mostly in the three-quarters to half court, and Kansas relies on the half court more, so things should open up a bit for Kentucky offensively and Cal has a bit of revenge from the last title game. Of course, you have the concern of youth playing in a title game and going up against size in the paint, and of course, not being able to play their style of game if Kansas can knock down some early shots. All of this might sound stupid, or so simplistic, but I just don’t see anything else that suggests the game goes any differently. If one team can go above the norm and hit shots from the perimeter (Kansas), then it’ll have a chance to win the game at the end or at the very least, stay close. If they can’t, then you might get as ugly of a game as Butler/Uconn was last year, and this is probably a blow-out.

Nothing for me, going to enjoy this one.

GL
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#2
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:49:45 PM
I'm hoping Kansas can ...... we'll see Much Respect 
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#3
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:51:50 PM
Wow Neil,

Great Write-up and insight from your stand point ! Always appreciated and respected brother ! Thanks for a great year again on COVERS in CBB borther ... We all owe him a BIG THANKS !

TO A GREAT YEAR in CBB 2011-12
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#4
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:57:30 PM

YOU     me    

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#5
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:57:52 PM
Great stuff nropp, any thoughts on the final score or total?  Close to the 75-65 game played at MSG in November?  25% of the score in that one was from the free throw line, thoughts on that also? Thanks in advance if you have the time to answer these.
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#6
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:58:01 PM
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#7
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:58:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:

November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 67-46, +85.65
March Leans: 42-39
Year: 293-237, +163.10
Year Leans: 244-242


Personally, I feel there is one factor to tonight’s game that will determine the winner and that’s it. Just one.
Nothing for me, going to enjoy this one.

GL

this is it which is why its so hard to take a side or total in this game

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#8
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:59:13 PM
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#9
Posted: 4/2/2012 12:59:43 PM

think we have to look in the grand scheme of life here.   5 years down the road when anthony davis is tearing up the nba we will look back and scratch our heads at why we did not unload on Kenutcky

does this have the makings of unc / msu of 2009 ?  quite possible

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#10
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:02:21 PM
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#11
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:02:48 PM

and that game unc favored by 7,5 won 89-72 wasnt close for a second

NBA players in that game:

Lawson dropped 21

Ellington dropped 19

danny green 6

Hansborough 18

none from MSU

 

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#12
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:05:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

and that game unc favored by 7,5 won 89-72 wasnt close for a second

NBA players in that game:

Lawson dropped 21

Ellington dropped 19

danny green 6

Hansborough 18

none from MSU

 


The other way to look at it was UNC was extremely experienced (all those guys you listed were juniors/seniors) whereas MSU was made up of quite a few fresh/soph.
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#13
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:06:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 222bad:

Great stuff nropp, any thoughts on the final score or total?  Close to the 75-65 game played at MSG in November?  25% of the score in that one was from the free throw line, thoughts on that also? Thanks in advance if you have the time to answer these.

Really comes down to how the game is played out. I think if Kansas can hit some shots and dirty up the game, then you're going to see quite a few fouls shots again like the first meeting. If they can't, then eh, just not sure. 
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nropp11
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#14
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:07:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Michfan15:

think we have to look in the grand scheme of life here.   5 years down the road when anthony davis is tearing up the nba we will look back and scratch our heads at why we did not unload on Kenutcky

does this have the makings of unc / msu of 2009 ?  quite possible


Also have to point out here that Davis is finally going up against someone who blocks shots better than he does in Withey.
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#15
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:11:41 PM
The way they've been dunking the ball, someone's going to get hurt trying to block one. Lost track of the dunks in both games Saturday, and most were of the vicious variety.  BOL
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#16
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:14:12 PM

both good points you make but as you mentioned before kansas is going to need alot more help than just withey's shot blocking.

my initial lean is kansas but more i think about it im tempted to take kentucky most likely going to crack beer enjoy the game and throw in a 2nd H bet if a good opportunity presents itself

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#17
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:15:49 PM

valid withey was stuffing dough boy sullinger aaron craft clueless harrison barnes, and stilman white in the last 2 games

he better eat his wheaties today

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#18
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:17:35 PM

Louisville was about as well coached as a team could be all game long; they had played Kentucky this yr also. They landed right on the number because they couldn't erase a 9-0 run earlier in the game--and this from one of the best pressure defenses I have seen (pressure on the ball carriers).

Ville was a better blocking team than Kansas, and Kentucky blocks a lot down low, so this is negated, so I don't see Whitey (spelling ?) being a major factor, except to try hold his own.

I see Kentucky by 12 points in this one, with Kansas getting to within say 6-7 pts late, but unable to threaten. The door will creek open as it does with a good and well coached team, but it will slam shut and the case will be closed, verdict in--Kentucky REALLY WAS the best team in the nation.

Anthony Davis is the best player in the country.

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nropp11
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#19
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:24:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

Ville was a better blocking team than Kansas


Untrue.
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#20
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:25:25 PM
Big game. Big Dome. Not a prescription for good shooting. Taylor has been ice cold from 3 so there is no confidence there. Maybe Johnson and Teahan hit from 3?

T-Rob will have to have a Danny Manning-like Championship game for Kansas to win this. And one of the KY studs will have to get in foul trouble. Short of that, KY too fast and deep for Kansas. 

I agree with you that Kansas could also be tired after than comeback game on Saturday.

Kansas does have the experienced vets vs the young bucks of KY, but I love how Darius Miller, the Senior anchors this team. The youngsters play with the poise of older players. So far.

I teased KY -2 with the Thunder yesterday -1 vs the Rose-less Bulls.

GL
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#21
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:30:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:

Louisville was about as well coached as a team could be all game long; they had played Kentucky this yr also. They landed right on the number because they couldn't erase a 9-0 run earlier in the game--and this from one of the best pressure defenses I have seen (pressure on the ball carriers).

Ville was a better blocking team than Kansas, and Kentucky blocks a lot down low, so this is negated, so I don't see Whitey (spelling ?) being a major factor, except to try hold his own.

I see Kentucky by 12 points in this one, with Kansas getting to within say 6-7 pts late, but unable to threaten. The door will creek open as it does with a good and well coached team, but it will slam shut and the case will be closed, verdict in--Kentucky REALLY WAS the best team in the nation.

Anthony Davis is the best player in the country.

Kansas also had the benefit of playing Kentucky this year. Basically in a similar setting, neutral court, with the same tendency to cause bad outside shooting, MSG.
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#22
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:39:19 PM
nice write up neil
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#23
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:49:05 PM

"How well does Kansas shoot from the perimeter? That’s how I see it. They aren’t the best perimeter shooting team, but they’re going to have ample opportunities against a team that doesn’t pressure like Kentucky."

What exactly does this mean? How would Kentucky beat good perimeter shooting teams like Florida and Vanderbilt if they give them "ample" opportunities?

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#24
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:54:52 PM
thanks for all your expert analysis Neil and see u next season.  Thanks for all the excellent analysis this season I enjoyed it a lot and learned a lot.


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#25
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:56:47 PM
Great year  
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