Posted:
#1
Let me start by saying I never post and been using covers for a couple years following a few cappers such as Nropp11 and Bigeastexpert.
For those of you who follow Nropp you might remember his play on VCU when they played Drexel in the conference championship. I agreed with the play but had to post for the first time because i saw extreme value in the under. For those interested heres a link to the writeup post #35.
Tonight I see extreme value again. The NIT thus far has been featuring games with no defense and a ton of scoring. Even Drexel scored 80 points in their match up vs central Florida which was the first time since the first game of the season in which they hit that mark. The highest total for Drexel was 132 against Norfolk state the second game of the season. The total for tonight, as I write this, is set at 141.5 which i believe to be extremely inflated. Drexel plays at a slow pace and relies on their defense for stops and turnovers. I have been following them all season long and there are countless times where 3-4 min scoreless droughts have occurred. I know Umass is a high scoring team but Drexel will impose their will and pace at home. Besides the last 2 games that Umass has played in the tournament(against teams that played like they didnt want to be there), look at the rest of their road games this season. Heres the only 5 against somewhat quality opponents.
@temple loss 90-88
@dayton loss 76-43
@st joes loss 73-62
@Lasalle loss 82-75
@miami loss 83-75
They also have had 2 bad losses on the road to duquesne (16-15, 9th in the conference) and to a god awful Rhode Island team (7-24, 13th in the conference)
Tonight I see extreme value again. The NIT thus far has been featuring games with no defense and a ton of scoring. Even Drexel scored 80 points in their match up vs central Florida which was the first time since the first game of the season in which they hit that mark. The highest total for Drexel was 132 against Norfolk state the second game of the season. The total for tonight, as I write this, is set at 141.5 which i believe to be extremely inflated. Drexel plays at a slow pace and relies on their defense for stops and turnovers. I have been following them all season long and there are countless times where 3-4 min scoreless droughts have occurred. I know Umass is a high scoring team but Drexel will impose their will and pace at home. Besides the last 2 games that Umass has played in the tournament(against teams that played like they didnt want to be there), look at the rest of their road games this season. Heres the only 5 against somewhat quality opponents.
@temple loss 90-88
@dayton loss 76-43
@st joes loss 73-62
@Lasalle loss 82-75
@miami loss 83-75
They also have had 2 bad losses on the road to duquesne (16-15, 9th in the conference) and to a god awful Rhode Island team (7-24, 13th in the conference)
Now they are playing a 3rd straight road game (something they havent done all season) against a team who is 15-0 at home this season. Im not going to sit here and say all of those were quality wins(majority were not) but they do control the pace and force other teams to play into their style at home.
Any team that rattles off 19 straight and goes 22-1 to finish a season is impressive. This Drexel team is poised and believes it has something to prove. I think they come out early tonight and play solid defense and SLOW efficient offense, frustrating Umass and forcing them into taking bad shots.
Final score prediction: 72-60
Taking Drexel UNDER 141.5
Also playing Drexel but I am going to wait and hope that the number moves back down.
Good luck with whatever you choose!
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