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[College Basketball] Topic: Saturday Hoops (POY #4) |
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nropp11 |
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#1 Posted: 3/17/2012 12:56:03 PM November: 46-38, +5.20 November Leans: 39-38 December: 65-70, -9.45 December Leans: 67-79 January: 52-39, +15.80 January Leans: 40-37 February: 63-44, +65.90 February Leans: 56-49 March: 48-34, +58.25 March Leans: 29-30
You probably know my thoughts on the A-SUN by now, (and please don’t compare Belmont’s thrashing at the hands of a Big East opponent yesterday to CAA Georgia State), but this pup holds some value I believe. With Georgia State, you have a team hitting the road after just playing a 70 possession game for the first time in 2012 and hitting the road after a 74-43 victory at home, a game they won rather easily by shooting over 50%, and a game they won rather handily despite turning the ball over 16 times. The defense is exceptionally good (very uncharacteristic of a Ron Hunter coached team) as they pressure the guards and use their height at the guard position to put teams in extreme panic in the half court. The problem is, this match-up is not one where they can use that size at the guard position to their advantage, and they’re actually at a disadvantage in the post as well. If you’ve seen Mercer play this year, they are a team that starts 6’4, 6’6, 6’6 at the guard spots, and have another 6’8 and 6’10 post players that like to step out and shoot the occasional 3-ball. About the only concern I have with Mercer is the fact that they don’t take care of the ball all that well, but playing in the up-tempo A-SUN there really isn’t a need for taking care of the ball in high possession games. Now, as for the game itself, Georgia State’s probably going to go to the zone that they used against taller teams throughout the year, and Mercer’s going to jack up three’s, but the difference between jacking up three’s and jacking them up when you still have the ability to attack and feed the ball inside against smaller defender’s is important. They will shoot a ton of three’s, as four guys can shoot it out there (which causes even more match-up problems), but more importantly there is a good chance they won’t be complacent, as there will be opportunities to attack with a size advantage. This Mercer team lost two games at home this year, and both losses came to Belmont and South Dakota State, two offenses that are far more efficient than what Georgia State brings to the table, today. Fading a bad offense coming off of one of its best games of the year in a fast environment which is rare and now hitting the road, along with backing the better offense (and what I actually think is the better defense) with a size advantage and numerous offensive scheme advantages.
In the other games, I’m playing Buffalo, as both teams probably play a zone defense, but one zone uses pressure (Buffalo), and the other just lets you score at will (Oakland). Buffalo against a zone this year has been a profitable investment, and by the looks of this total at 165, this one is going to feature some scoring. I’m playing Ohio State and Gonzaga to the under again. Both interior defenses are decent enough to stop the other’s offensive attack, and Craft guarding Pangos sort of limits the Gonzaga touches in the paint. Using the same analysis as the OSU/Loyola game, and I have no idea why Loyola MD chose to run with them, and probably a good chance they’re asking themselves the same thing as they sit at home on their couch and watch this one play out. I’m playing Murray State, up-tempo game plays to their style, teams are fairly similar, but obviously Marquette is beefier, just not sure if the beefier advantage holds true in an up and down format. I’m playing Wisconsin, obviously as a fade of Vandy in the half-court, along with the fact that one team has a good PG who can create his own shot, and the other really doesn’t, which I think is the key of the game. And, it should come as no surprise that I am playing Louisville whose zone and defensive intensity take really good teams like Davidson completely out of their offense and make them one-dimensional. New Mexico’s no different here, they assist on 65% of their baskets (currently #2 in the country), so when you have very few options as far as guys who can create their own shot, you just don’t fare well against a Pitino defense.
10* Mercer +2 5* Wisconsin +1 5* Louisville -1.5 3* Gonzaga/Ohio State Under 137 3* Buffalo +3 2* Murray State +5.5
Lean: Indiana -6 Lean: Iowa State/Kentucky Under 141.5 Lean: Colorado +7.5
GL |
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Jbutler24 |
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#2 Posted: 3/17/2012 12:57:49 PM |
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mas1E |
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#3 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:00:28 PM
BOL
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Stellablue |
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#4 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:02:22 PM |
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jesron1269 |
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#5 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:03:57 PM |
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Frank the Bank |
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#6 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:04:14 PM |
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Posted using a mobile device.quote |
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cashColt |
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#7 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:04:26 PM 
Love your entire card today.
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fupm |
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#8 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:05:14 PM  good luck
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scott1519 |
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#9 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:05:24 PM
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kwnole |
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#10 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:11:06 PM |
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sllab33 |
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#11 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:11:54 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by scott1519: whats your record on *10 plays?
1000 - 0 |
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Dtown13 |
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#12 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:16:04 PM |
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wmi799 |
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#13 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:16:22 PM I think I will try the Mercer play! BOL today Neil! |
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DOVJAK |
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#14 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:17:25 PM  |
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bogey533 |
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#15 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:19:06 PM |
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LaDaddy |
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#16 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:21:28 PM |
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composite |
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#17 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:23:48 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by scott1519: whats your record on *10 plays?
If I'm not mistaken, I think it's 1-2. |
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evilelvis |
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#18 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:26:00 PM
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composite |
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#19 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:28:34 PM What does this mean:
"About the only concern I have with Mercer is the fact that they don’t take care of the ball all that well, but playing in the up-tempo A-SUN there really isn’t a need for taking care of the ball in high possession games."
Wouldn't limiting turnovers be important in any game regardless of tempo? Turnovers results in less possessions - its similar to rebounding. |
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cmancone10 |
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#20 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:28:58 PM |
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BagelBoy |
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#21 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:29:24 PM |
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sharpstick |
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#22 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:34:22 PM
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motorcitymama |
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#23 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:39:33 PM
Happy St. Patty's Day and good luck to all of us, especially us Mercer groupies!!! |
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MIKEYCEE123 |
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#24 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:43:49 PM
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Mr_Ranch |
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#25 Posted: 3/17/2012 1:55:59 PM |
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