$$$ SWEET 16 FUTURES $$$ Easy Money???

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: $$$ SWEET 16 FUTURES $$$ Easy Money???
k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/13/2012 2:45:53 AM
I have been looking at some of these futures and i cant believe how tempting they look. I mean obviously the odds arent great and no one can make a living betting on heavy favorites MLs (all the time)... but some of these futures cant be that bad...

1's
Kentucky to make swt 16   -600
UNC to make swt 16           -475
Mich St to make swt 18       -210
Cuse to make swt 16           -230


2's
Mizz to make swt 16            -275
Kan to make swt 16             -275
Duke to make swt 16           -180
Ohio St to make swt 16       -350

I think that most would agree that using the "L" word to say that all 4 1 seeds are going to make the 2nd weekend of the tournament this year is out of pocket. (I know that its NEVER safe to use that word) And im sure that some of those games might even be single digits wins with some 8 or 9 seed playing hard and somewhat challenge the 1 seed. But no matter what the spread is in that 2nd game (3rd round)  we can all agree that the 1 seed should/will advance....they are a 1 for a reason. Right?

Even the 2's are dominant teams and should have no problem advancing... Mizz, Kan, OSU and even Duke were all 1 game away from being 1's themselves.... I honestly thought that Mizz was going to be a 1 after winning the big 12 conf champ... and if OSU would and won against Mich St in the big 10 champ, they are the 1 instead of Mich St... Kan and Duke were in the convo before early exits in conf tourneys as well...


I guess I am looking for opinions on what everyone thinks about these futures, odds, and what they think about risking large percentages of you bank roll on such plays. Especially during tourney time....


    
joemw74 PM joemw74
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Posted: 3/13/2012 2:48:21 AM
hollywoodundead PM hollywoodundead
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Posted: 3/13/2012 2:52:20 AM

I WAS JUST about to make a thread on this, UNBELIEVABLE value, for -250? Thats  a steal

Syracuse-245 is the biggest, no shot for ashville, and I think so.miss upsets kst, making this bet  1000x easier

Marquette -110,  I think they win the1st game  and If murray st is able to beat colo, I think get stopped vs marquette

I like nmex +172 i think they handle lbsu and if davidson upsets lou nmex should win, and i still think they beat louis

 

Duke-180 geesh

mich st -230 jees

k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/13/2012 3:03:03 AM
I know right???  I thought that I was losing my mind thinking like this...

Florida St +150
Michigan +140

And im REALLY liking New Mexico right now...Won alot of money on them in thier conf tourney.... Had them +155 on the ML against UNLV and then pounded them -4.5 in the championship against  SDST... Too bad the pulled Long Beach in the first rd... that is gonna be a great game.
GATORVILLESEC PM GATORVILLESEC
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Posted: 3/13/2012 3:07:51 AM
Baylor sweet 16 -105
k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/13/2012 3:12:21 AM
I like Baylor....

I Think they have a good shot at beating Duke, and Duke is my squad
Ktrain PM Ktrain
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Posted: 3/13/2012 3:41:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hollywoodundead:

I WAS JUST about to make a thread on this, UNBELIEVABLE value, for -250? Thats  a steal

Syracuse-245 is the biggest, no shot for ashville, and I think so.miss upsets kst, making this bet  1000x easier

Marquette -110,  I think they win the1st game  and If murray st is able to beat colo, I think get stopped vs marquette

I like nmex +172 i think they handle lbsu and if davidson upsets lou nmex should win, and i still think they beat louis

 

Duke-180 geesh

mich st -230 jees


You should make a thread about what a lying, cock sucking, thief you are. 

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=83&sub=101208460

Ktrain PM Ktrain
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Posted: 3/13/2012 3:41:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hollywoodundead:

I WAS JUST about to make a thread on this, UNBELIEVABLE value, for -250? Thats  a steal

Syracuse-245 is the biggest, no shot for ashville, and I think so.miss upsets kst, making this bet  1000x easier

Marquette -110,  I think they win the1st game  and If murray st is able to beat colo, I think get stopped vs marquette

I like nmex +172 i think they handle lbsu and if davidson upsets lou nmex should win, and i still think they beat louis

 

Duke-180 geesh

mich st -230 jees


Stop posting on Covers

k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/13/2012 12:29:38 PM
bump.... what does everyone think?
wtfe PM wtfe
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Posted: 3/13/2012 12:48:04 PM
I was thinking the prop for Duke not to make the sweet 16 at +185 was pretty good. I don't see how Duke wins in the 2nd round.
Ktrain PM Ktrain
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Posted: 3/13/2012 12:51:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by k_willi21:

bump.... what does everyone think?

I think you should stop conversing with hollywoodundead. For your benefit. 
k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/13/2012 3:15:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wtfe:

I was thinking the prop for Duke not to make the sweet 16 at +185 was pretty good. I don't see how Duke wins in the 2nd round.


I think Duke makes 16... ND/Xav winner might make a game of it, but Coach K will make sure they pull through... its the next round that has me worried.

The Plumlees and Austin Rivers are gonna be tough.
k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/13/2012 3:46:00 PM
Just heard about Melo for Syr.... pretty sure im gonna back off of them to make sweet 16... K St and S Miss both rebound pretty well...Definately not a lock anymore.

As of now I have a few futures locked in.

UNC -400 (down from 475 last night)   20 units to win 5
Mizz -230 (down from 275)   9.2 units to win 4
Florida St +145   3 units to win 4.35

Leaning on a few more...pretty close to pulling the trigger

Mich +140    3 units to win 4.2
Ohio St -400 (up from 350 LN)  12 units to win 3

units = $100

Anyone have any insights ???
k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/13/2012 4:28:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ktrain:


I think you should stop conversing with hollywoodundead. For your benefit. 


KTrain

Read the link you posted... pretty lame that he jacked Marlowe like that... maybe he'll end up like Omar did, gettin popped in a mini mart by some 12 year old... Do you have Chris and Snoop out lookin for him? lol 
Ktrain PM Ktrain
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Posted: 3/13/2012 6:58:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by k_willi21:



KTrain

Read the link you posted... pretty lame that he jacked Marlowe like that... maybe he'll end up like Omar did, gettin popped in a mini mart by some 12 year old... Do you have Chris and Snoop out lookin for him? lol 

I love The Wire references you dropped. Nice work. Best drama ever. It doesn't get the attention it deserves because it's so gritty and hard core. 


If hollywood appears in anymore of your threads just run him out. I hate hijacking your thread like that but I am making it a point to make everyone aware of what scum he is and run him off Covers. 

Did you know that he posted another Covers member died in a car wreck and had young children? It turned out none of it was true. He is just scum. 
Ktrain PM Ktrain
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Posted: 3/13/2012 7:01:45 PM
And as for your thread goes. I would just ask myself whether or not I am getting good value on Duke beating Xavier or Notre Dame. I.E. would Duke be laying more than the -180 in a ML against those teams? If you think Duke would be -200 against either one of those teams than I would take Duke. 

Same pretty much goes with all the other teams. I don't have any of those teams losing in the first two rounds. But some of them won't be nearly as heavy faves to win their second round games. 
k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/14/2012 11:14:58 AM
KTrain

Nice point about the 2nd game ml aspect.... Im sure the 1 seeds like KEN and UNC will be higher ML's since their line will be in the 7-12 pt range I assume (-400 to -800 range) depending on who they are playing....

But other teams like Mizz, KAN, OSU im thinking that they will be lower lines since it seems that the possible 2nd game opponents will be major programs from major confs...

I guess overall, these Futures arent mathematically the best value you are going to get but I REALLY like the aspect of these top seeds just to ADVANCE to the 2nd weekend. Dont have to worry about backdoor covers or slow starts or late fouls and FT's,

Like Herm Edwards would say... "We play to WIN THE GAME!!!"
k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/14/2012 1:02:49 PM
only 1 more day till true madness


rzagza PM rzagza
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Posted: 3/14/2012 1:06:58 PM
Anyone who has a future on Cuse to advance to 16 needs to back up that bet with $ on Kansas St to make it now at +220.  I dont think So Miss can beat Cuse even w/o Melo, but KSU could.

I would be very surprised if any of Kentucky, Kansas, UNC, Ohio St didnt make the 16 and mildly surprised if Duke, Baylor or MSU dont make it.  

Baylor is actually pretty good value at + money right now.  UNLV hasnt shown they can beat a team of Baylor's quality on a nuetral floor this season.  All of UNLV's good work has come at home, and Colorado doesnt match up well with Baylor at all.  Baylor has the length to deter most of Colorado's drives to the paint.
DanTos8715 PM DanTos8715
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Posted: 3/14/2012 1:27:25 PM

I parlayed the following to make the sweet 16.

Kentucky, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio State, Baylor, and K State.

$90 to win $1400

Obviously I'm banking on the first 5 handidly and hoping K State can pull off the upset over Syracuse.  I think they handle S Miss with ease.

k_willi21 PM k_willi21
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Posted: 3/14/2012 2:45:38 PM
DT

Frank Martin is a good coach. K State is a good rebounding team. And they handled excellent guard play by beating Mizz 2x this year... Watch out Syracuse!!!

Cuse might become the redmen cause they might get handled by this team.

BOL
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