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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Sloop First Round
sloop703 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#26
Posted: 3/12/2012 10:12:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by johncapper750:


would really like to hear your thoughts on these 2 games.
thanks bol

On paper, it looks like these teams were moving in opposite directions to end the season. Cal shot themselves in the feet to blow the regular season title and eventually lost in the conference tournament; south florida kept beating the odds and proving the doubters wrong. But there's a reason why Cal still finished the season as the #23 team on KenPom and USF finished #66. (Ratings indexes are far from perfect and fail to capture a variety of elements that prove essential in the big dance, but they do give insight to a lot of important things.)

Anybody who had the displeasure of watching that USF/ND game should have a clear understanding of why everyone keeps blabbing on about USF's ineptitude. Just a miserable team offensively that makes poor decisions and stands around and turns it over and doesn't cut or move or do anything worthy of praise. They rebound the ball well, but that hasn't translated to great 2nd shot opportunities or the production of points.

Cal can hold their own on the boards, they are overall very efficient offensively (#2 pac 12 offense), they shoot 2 pointers at a high percentage (#1 in pac 12), they play defense (#1 in pac 12), don't turn it over (#2 in pac 12), and make their free throws (#1 in pac 12). They're so much more balanced and talented. They're not a very experienced team, but they do have Gutierrez leading the team as a senior. They've REALLY stepped up their defense this year, and god knows that's great for a battle with USF.

Although they beat Washington by 3, I think Cal plays worse against faster and more athletic teams. (See: Missour; UNLV.) Those games were dreadful. But USF needs a snail-like half court setting to execute their offense, and I think Cal will be able to overcome the SF buLOLs. It's a very favorable matchup for an underachieving Cal, I like them to grab a win against this un-clutch and unimpressive USF team.
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#27
Posted: 3/12/2012 10:23:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:


are you drinking the Florida St kool-aid??


Haha. I'm not sure. When Florida State gets in a scoring rut, man do they look ugly. And the Bonnies are quite competent at scoring, and you can guarantee Nicholson is going to show up. But will Snaer? Probably. FSU's extremely hot right now and seem only to be gathering more steam; their offensive woes seem to be going away. I think the over has hit in 7 of their last 8 games actually. But yeah...I would like FSU a lot better if they were to play a smaller team that they can bully up on and use their size to frustrate. The Bonnies aren't terribly huge, but they still have decent size, rebound well (actually better than FSU), and they're on a roll too. They force a lot of turnovers (FSU's problem) and make their free throws.

Still, as hot as the Bonnies are, they don't deserve to be in this tournament and I find it very hard to believe they pull off an upset. I'd just feel a lot safer parlaying it, if anything.
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#28
Posted: 3/12/2012 10:24:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by monkeymark5:

sloop you locked all of those games in?

Yessir. I usually post right after it's locked in.
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#29
Posted: 3/12/2012 10:34:36 PM
a small degenerate play:

Clippers -5.5
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#30
Posted: 3/12/2012 10:41:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sloop703:

a small degenerate play:

Clippers -5.5

Made me really laugh, because your write ups were so good and i was all into them, and then boom as i continue reading, a small degenerate play, clipps. ha, awesome

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#31
Posted: 3/12/2012 10:48:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JackSmack:

Made me really laugh, because your write ups were so good and i was all into them, and then boom as i continue reading, a small degenerate play, clipps. ha, awesome


Hahaha
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#32
Posted: 3/12/2012 11:01:39 PM
Belmont +4
Mizzou -21
Mich St Over 154
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#33
Posted: 3/12/2012 11:44:38 PM
here comes the clipp show. been waiting to play the halftime cause they were down and just felt like they would kill these guys in 2nd half, sigh, they did it too early. My luck.
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#34
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:39:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by castro22:

Alabama to light up Creighton

you really used this as your first post on covers?#waste


i'm not going to lie, i regret buying on creighton. i jumped on it as soon as it was released because I thought it was going to climb another point. lines land on three more than any other number, and getting it at 3.5/4 would have made it a no-play for me. judging by the line movement, i capped this game completely wrong and don't feel safe about it any more. but there's too much movement at this point that it would be worthwhile to buy off; i'm just going to have to trust my original hunch and hope for the best. can't get too obsessive about line movements anyway.

like i said, there's a good chance i capped this game wrong. capping teams w/ opposite styles is difficult. but i think creighton will be too much offensively and bama will fail to match the points creighton produces. i happen to think very highly of anthony grant and respect his team's ability to defend, but points are what wins games. bama was set on suppressing anthony davis when they met back in january, and they were very effective at doing so, but davis has been covered well in a few games this year. mcdermott, however, hasn't scored less than 12 points in a game this year, and the only team that was really able to contain him were a familiar foe and a very smart team in wichita state. mcdermott and creighton are not afraid to play anybody, and i personally don't think they need mcdermott to carry the load as much as people think. what i mean by that is that they're a very well-coached team and they play intelligent basketball and make good decisions. not just their shooting % is high, but their offensive efficiency is high. they take good shots, take care of the ball, use the clock when they face good defenses, make free throws, etc. they will give up a good shot for a great shot and they have the personnel to step up in case mcdermott is being bothered

ive also watched bama basketball recently and have not been impressed. they've failed to materialize and it's shown on paper. the only SEC team they've beaten with a winning record is Tennessee at home. *yawn*. they had a couple good wins in november, but that was lightyears ago. creighton is far from a defensive force, but alabama is stagnant offensively at times for long stretches.

just my two cents
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#35
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:41:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JackSmack:

here comes the clipp show. been waiting to play the halftime cause they were down and just felt like they would kill these guys in 2nd half, sigh, they did it too early. My luck.

haha. i hate the NBA. i hadn't checked the score since halftime when they were up 9, and then saw they were down 7, but now they're only down 1 literally 3 minutes later. leads come and go so easily, it's hard for me to get emotionally invested in an NBA bet until the final minutes.
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#36
Posted: 3/13/2012 12:55:25 AM
Love your write-ups...... But cut your potential middle loss and even up on Bama. They win by 4+
Posted using a mobile device.
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#37
Posted: 3/13/2012 2:12:02 AM
Sloop---- I love your moneyline parlays----Curious what your thoughts are about a Miam (FL) over Valp, Baylor over SDST, Florida St over St. Bonnies moneyline parlay?-----Should pay close to even money.
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#38
Posted: 3/13/2012 7:36:44 PM
Been working a lot of hours so I can take Thursday and Friday off. Still hoping to get on a few more, but here's what I've posted so far:

UMass +7
WVU -1
Cal -3
UNLV -4
Montana +9.5
Manhattan -1.5
New Mexico State +7
Georgetown -3(b.5)

adding:
Iona +2
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#39
Posted: 3/13/2012 7:39:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by loveld77:

Sloop---- I love your moneyline parlays----Curious what your thoughts are about a Miam (FL) over Valp, Baylor over SDST, Florida St over St. Bonnies moneyline parlay?-----Should pay close to even money.




I like it. I'm being very weary and patient with my ML parlays, since lines have pretty much settled and payouts will be the same at this point. There's also been upsets galore and I'm afraid this trend will continue; there's much more value in betting dogs for the next three weeks. I meant to get on a couple ML parlays tonight, but just got wrapped up at work and didn't get to look deep enough into the games. But yeah, funny you mention those plays...I was actually looking pretty hard at a FSU/Baylor +something ML parlay the other day. I think you'll be safe. I might add something similar as well.
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#40
Posted: 3/13/2012 7:41:24 PM
Looking like a great opportunity to bet UMass again at half. If it falls within 5-7 point lead, there's a ton of value there.
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#41
Posted: 3/13/2012 7:42:37 PM
Sorry, I forgot about my boneheaded Creighton -2.5 play as well
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#42
Posted: 3/13/2012 7:53:24 PM
not quite what i wanted, but i'll bite.

UMass +6.5 2h
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#43
Posted: 3/13/2012 9:32:06 PM
wow. that was probably the ugliest 2OT game i've ever watched in my life. but i'll take it.

won't be taking bad lines through the tournament, but this one is a little different due to the circumstances:

Loyola Marymount -7
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#44
Posted: 3/13/2012 11:59:35 PM
Well how about that...

Iona +2
UMass +7
UMass +6.5 2h
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#45
Posted: 3/14/2012 12:00:21 AM
i cannot wait for marquette to blast BYU
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#46
Posted: 3/14/2012 12:10:33 AM
Marquette smashes BYU

GL in the tourney Sloop
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#47
Posted: 3/14/2012 12:36:27 AM
yessir. pace will be similar but marquette will put some damn pressure on the ball and they'll know how to attack a zone. What a poorly coached, dumb, panicky group. the fairfield & manhattan blow-ups were even worse. tim clueless sucks and this group should have amounted to more. they'll never get over this loss. biggest loss in tourney history. funny that there was only one lead change in the whole game

this game didnt even bother me as a bettor it bothered me as a basketball fan
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#48
Posted: 3/14/2012 12:51:20 AM
thanks for the replies sloop. i was originally on zaga but you do make strong points. i must reconsider. i'm also starting to like cal but will prolly lay off.

I like your loyola -7
I also have a question about the under 147 in the loyola/cs fullerton game. what am I missing?

jc750
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#49
Posted: 3/14/2012 1:14:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by johncapper750:

thanks for the replies sloop. i was originally on zaga but you do make strong points. i must reconsider. i'm also starting to like cal but will prolly lay off.

I like your loyola -7
I also have a question about the under 147 in the loyola/cs fullerton game. what am I missing?

jc750

Well there's a ton of buzz going around about 4 fullerton players quitting today today and lashing out via twitter. thanks to Nropp and a few others for shedding light on this. here's a really interesting forum on a fullerton thread. take a look if you have time.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=45&f=2227&t=8795477

it's all back-fence talk at the moment, but these things usually wind up coming to fruition. something will probably be announced tomorrow before the game.

i dont know how it would affect the o/u and whether that's even moved at all yet. can't imagine the line would go anywhere but down considering that fullerton plays absolutely no defense to begin with. i'd lean under, but i dont care much for totals unless i feel really confident in them
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#50
Posted: 3/14/2012 1:23:13 AM
hey sloop. always read your write-ups. what do you think of vandy/harvard?
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