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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: First Round NCAA Plays
JFen31
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#1
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:43:49 PM
2011-2012 Regular Season: 312-261 (+34.5 units)
2011-2012 Postseason: 0-0

I'll have a separate thread for NIT/CBI/CIT.

Two early birds:

Colorado State vs. Murray State -1.5 (3 units)
Gonzaga vs. West Virginia -1 (1 unit)
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#2
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:47:57 PM
like both
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#3
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:48:34 PM

Great, great value on WVA -1...

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JFen31
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#4
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:50:25 PM
I just don't get the Murray line. They completely take away everything Colorado State wants to do offensively in terms of defending the three and clogging passing lanes. Hornung is similar to Daniel/Aska in that he's an undersized rebounder with a motor. But Murray State has two of those guys and CSU only has one. Rams are a nice team, but they don't have anyone who can match Canaan in terms of firepower.
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#5
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:57:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

I just don't get the Murray line. They completely take away everything Colorado State wants to do offensively in terms of defending the three and clogging passing lanes. Hornung is similar to Daniel/Aska in that he's an undersized rebounder with a motor. But Murray State has two of those guys and CSU only has one. Rams are a nice team, but they don't have anyone who can match Canaan in terms of firepower.


I really don't get it either. For starters they should be seeded higher, and Colorado State is lucky to even be in the tourney, now they make it a pick?
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1919
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#6
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:57:25 PM
I agree JFen.

WVU, Murray, ISU, Wichita and Montana/ML

thoughts?

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#7
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:58:21 PM
Murray up to -3 now which is what most people will get the number at.
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book21star
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#8
Posted: 3/11/2012 7:58:57 PM
to be that douchebag guy to say it, those would be the second round technically
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#9
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:01:00 PM
Book21 I was about to go there. Not sure why the did that with the brackets, but yes it's second round, ha
Posted using a mobile device.
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JFen31
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#10
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:01:25 PM
Futures Bets (From January 18 and February 27)

(+3200) Michigan State (0.4 units)
(+5000) UNLV (0.4 units)
(+22500) Temple (0.4 units)
(+9500) Vanderbilt (0.2 units)
(+17000) Harvard (0.2 units)
(+22500) New Mexico (0.2 units)
(+22500) Long Beach (0.2 units)
(+22500) California (0.2 units)

Nice to see four of my VERY longshots get matched up with each other in the first round. Guaranteed to have two of Vandy/Harvard/Beach/New Mexico in the second round. Keep in mind, especially with the lower ones, I'm just trying to create hedge spots for the Sweet 16.

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#11
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:02:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TcuFrogs:

Book21 I was about to go there. Not sure why the did that with the brackets, but yes it's second round, ha
I dont get it either 
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JFen31
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#12
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:03:47 PM
Bonnies vs. Florida State -5.5 (1 unit)
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1919
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#13
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:05:52 PM
seems like they tipped their hand on NC St and Belmont lines right?
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JFen31
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#14
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:08:10 PM
New Mexico State +6 vs. Indiana (1 unit)


Leans:

Saint Louis +2.5, Iowa State -1, New Mexico -4, Virginia +3, Montana +8.5
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JFen31
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#15
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:13:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 1919:

I agree JFen.

WVU, Murray, ISU, Wichita and Montana/ML

thoughts?



Like em all, actually. Probably won't lay the points with Wichita because this could easily be a one-possession game, but if the Shockers do win it, I'd probably back them in a Round of 32 game against Indiana/NMSU.
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#16
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:14:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by JFen31:

Futures Bets (From January 18 and February 27)

(+3200) Michigan State (0.4 units)
(+5000) UNLV (0.4 units)
(+22500) Temple (0.4 units)
(+9500) Vanderbilt (0.2 units)
(+17000) Harvard (0.2 units)
(+22500) New Mexico (0.2 units)
(+22500) Long Beach (0.2 units)
(+22500) California (0.2 units)

Nice to see four of my VERY longshots get matched up with each other in the first round. Guaranteed to have two of Vandy/Harvard/Beach/New Mexico in the second round. Keep in mind, especially with the lower ones, I'm just trying to create hedge spots for the Sweet 16.

People are going to laugh but I LOVE Temple in this tournament.

 

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#17
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:25:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

Futures Bets (From January 18 and February 27)

(+3200) Michigan State (0.4 units)
(+5000) UNLV (0.4 units)
(+22500) Temple (0.4 units)
(+9500) Vanderbilt (0.2 units)
(+17000) Harvard (0.2 units)
(+22500) New Mexico (0.2 units)
(+22500) Long Beach (0.2 units)
(+22500) California (0.2 units)

Nice to see four of my VERY longshots get matched up with each other in the first round. Guaranteed to have two of Vandy/Harvard/Beach/New Mexico in the second round. Keep in mind, especially with the lower ones, I'm just trying to create hedge spots for the Sweet 16.



Very nice numbers on some of these. I thought you had Wichita St. with some crazy number?

I have made 5 future bets at various times during the season, but only 3 have good value at this point.

Florida St. +9500
UNLV +15500
Marquette +4500





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JFen31
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#18
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:28:48 PM
garbage, I forgot about Wichita. Have them at +25000 for 0.2 units

That bet was part of the January 18th batch and posted in the 1/18 thread.
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JFen31
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#19
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:29:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MadeMan4:



Very nice numbers on some of these. I thought you had Wichita St. with some crazy number?

I have made 5 future bets at various times during the season, but only 3 have good value at this point.

Florida St. +9500
UNLV +15500
Marquette +4500







Those are all really, really good. All are seeded high enough that you could conceivably wait until the Elite 8 to start hedging.
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#20
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:43:32 PM
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#21
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:47:18 PM
What are your thoughts on the Iona/BYU matchup?
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#22
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:47:58 PM
Youre book has these lines UP already???
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#23
Posted: 3/11/2012 8:55:35 PM
Murray St. and WVA 
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#24
Posted: 3/11/2012 9:06:32 PM
I agree with your plays JFen. Colorado State isn't really a worthy tournament team. Gonzaga is soft and West Virginia is a bad match up for them. Interesting to see Indiana only a 6 point favorite. I know they lost their point guard but that smells like a trap game so I can see why you like New Mexico State. FSU should take care of the Bonnies. Good luck!
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#25
Posted: 3/11/2012 9:17:26 PM
Kine you didn't ask me but I've seen BYU play several times this year and haven't been impressed. Haven't seen Iona play but BYU is a totally different team than last year. Davies and Hartsock are good post players but they are a horrible outside shooting team. They really miss Jimmer and Emory. Carlino is a great athlete but he can't shoot. And Abouo a starter for BYU has an injured hand. BYU is only 1-5 ats last 6 games so they haven't been playing well. I would have to take Iona even though I haven't seen them play. They didn't have any huge wins but Iona beat Denver on the road and they have the top home court advantage in country. Also beat St. Joe's and Maryland and only lost by one point to Purdue so they could beat BYU. BYU's best non conference win was over Oregon so they haven't really proven much. 
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