Friday Early Hoops

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Friday Early Hoops
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:10:06 PM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 32-17, +62.65
March Leans: 16-12


I’m playing Bama. Back on February 4th, Florida had a 19-4 record (7-1 in the SEC), and had quite the easy schedule. Then, they lose at Kentucky, get taken out at home to Tennessee, get wins over Bama, Arkansas and Auburn (will expand on these in a minute), then closed out the season with three straight losses to Vandy, Georgia, and Kentucky. That puts them at 3-5 in their last three games. The losses are understandable, yet troubling at the same time. In those losses, it was the defense that didn’t hold up its end of the deal. They yielded an average of 1.21 points per possession. That’s not going to get you very far in the grand scheme of things. Along those same lines, the offense put up a measely 0.99 points on the offensive side of things. Now, they did beat Alabama a few weeks ago, but that was an Alabama squad without Green, and Releford didn’t start, so this was an Alabama team that was reeling and wasn’t able to control the tempo of the game. They still only scored 61 points, a tad below the 1 point per possession barrier. The wins over Arkansas or Auburn aren’t all that impressive given the state of those programs. What you have here is a Florida offense that needs to score to win ballgames and they’re struggling, and against Alabama’s pressure defense with a full roster, I’m not expecting those things to correct themselves. As for Bama, obviously you have concern with how they score, that sort of goes out the window with Florida’s defense (also with them missing Yeguete). With Florida, you have a team that is dynamic on offense, I’ve pointed that out multiple times this year, but you also have a team that relies on the three-pointer like never before. And the most important thing here, is that you have a team that really isn’t designed to play slow and physical. Over the past few years, Donovan’s been the type of coach that can utilize his roster like so, and he’s been a snail. He can’t do that this year, as they’ve sped up the pace quite a bit for that fact alone. And it’s burnt them in slow possession games where they really need a focus on the defensive side of things. Now with Bama, you have a snail. A snail that just played a snail yesterday. In a high possession game, I’m concerned with a back-to-back, but in the pace that they like to play, going snail to snail here is no tough feat. I realize Bama is still missing Mitchell, I’m OK with that. Green’s more important here and Jacobs hardly played the first meeting with a mouth injury. He rebounds better both offensively and defensively. He’s better defensively on the interior not that it will matter in this match-up, and he goes to the line a ton. Florida won the first meeting by 9 points. For over ¾ of that ballgame, Bama didn’t have a single guy who could defend the interior, so those inside looks where they had plenty of chances are taken away today. Which leads me to Florida not doing so. It’s pretty simple with Florida, if you play a zone, they’re going to have a half or two where they just light you up. That’s not the case here today, as Alabama brings pressure on the outside better than any team in the SEC (Kentucky has a bigger interior presence so that’s where their #’s come from). All in all, this line was -3 at Bama a few weeks ago where Bama had an inexperienced lineup to start the game, yet found themselves tied at the half, and found themselves in the ballgame late and a traditionally good foul shooting team sucked from the stripe. Now we go to a neutral and I’m getting another point of value, with a better lineup, not only offensively, but defensively as well against a slumping offense and one that doesn’t produce in a snail? I’ll bite. The only two games Alabama didn’t control the tempo this year came against Arkansas, this one’s a snail, and a game where Florida is unlikely to come out of a slump. Granted, a ton of this comes down to how well Florida shoots from the outside, almost all of their games do so. But this is one of those instances where even if they can shoot it well from the outside against maximum pressure, they’re still going to struggle on the interior unlike the first meeting.

5* Alabama +4

The rest: 

3* Bethune Cookman +2

Lean: St. Bonaventure +2
Lean: Alabama/Florida Under 128
Lean: St. Joseph’s/St. Bonaventure Under 134

Today’s tidbit: Alcorn State played a 95 possession game yesterday in regulation and scored 103 points. The pace in this game today should be ultra-fast as both like to get up and down. The problem, these two played a week ago to a 70 possession game and only scored 105 combined. SWAC Basketball at its finest.

GL
The Winning Solution PM The Winning Solution
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:12:11 PM
Really like the Alabama play.  Good luck.
Raidernator76 PM Raidernator76
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:12:45 PM
HuskerDabu PM HuskerDabu
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:13:53 PM
thanks.
Jbutler24 PM Jbutler24
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:15:42 PM
THANKS FOR YOUR TIME NROP
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sportsanalyst PM sportsanalyst
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:15:47 PM
hi Neil, do u think  Texas Southern -2   Miss Valley State -1   and
Norfolk State -2   is a safe teaser play?

Or do u think Alcorn State or Pine Bluff and Florida a and m can upset these favorites?

Thanks and good luck to u.
KobezKing PM KobezKing
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:16:12 PM
Good Luck today
gobengals PM gobengals
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:17:16 PM

gl nropp

remember u rocking your picks back in the day, still holding strong, well done!

B-Runo PM B-Runo
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:18:27 PM
ExclusiveSpread PM ExclusiveSpread
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:18:34 PM
Hey nropp interested as to why st Bonn over st joe, revenge factor for st joes and better guard play.....
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wmi799 PM wmi799
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:20:13 PM
BOL Neil! Thank goodness you showed up! A couple of these guys were about to have a heart attack!
turtleboy PM turtleboy
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:24:04 PM
Good luck today my friend. I'm on Bama +4 as well
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nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:25:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sportsanalyst:

hi Neil, do u think  Texas Southern -2   Miss Valley State -1   and
Norfolk State -2   is a safe teaser play?

Or do u think Alcorn State or Pine Bluff and Florida a and m can upset these favorites?

Thanks and good luck to u.

Just a personal preference, but I don't see any value in teasing the smaller schools. Talent difference isn't all that great, so what you're teasing is essentially the scheme or style of play. Another thing within these smaller conferences is the fact that the favorites are simply favorites from either winning the conference or having a good year, when in actuality, the real performances of these teams come in the conference tournament b/c that's all they have to play for to get a bid. See it every year, scrubby team does nothing during the regular season, then shows up and builds some momentum and scores 100+ in a friggin game. Saw it yesterday with Alcorn State who is currently the 8th WORST team in the country. Also seeing it with McNeese State, who plays in the Southland title tomorrow I believe.
Rarfuls PM Rarfuls
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:26:03 PM
As usual, great writeup!  Thanks for your time Neil and GL today! 
bullmoose PM bullmoose
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:28:08 PM
bol
sportsanalyst PM sportsanalyst
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:28:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:


Just a personal preference, but I don't see any value in teasing the smaller schools. Talent difference isn't all that great, so what you're teasing is essentially the scheme or style of play. Another thing within these smaller conferences is the fact that the favorites are simply favorites from either winning the conference or having a good year, when in actuality, the real performances of these teams come in the conference tournament b/c that's all they have to play for to get a bid. See it every year, scrubby team does nothing during the regular season, then shows up and builds some momentum and scores 100+ in a friggin game. Saw it yesterday with Alcorn State who is currently the 8th WORST team in the country. Also seeing it with McNeese State, who plays in the Southland title tomorrow I believe.


Interesting. Thanks for this great advice and tip. I checked KenPom stats on these teams and it looks like a mismatch on paper lol. Great perspective -  look at Savannah State losing as u predicted last time too.   thanks again, u have talked me out of so many bad plays that I  was going to make this year.
sailing58 PM sailing58
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:28:50 PM

Hey Neil are you running with Stuckey in Vegas today

 

Thanks for sharing man and keep doing what you do 

 

WINNING   

PLAYAAAA1969 PM PLAYAAAA1969
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:31:58 PM
Bol King...
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:34:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ExclusiveSpread:

Hey nropp interested as to why st Bonn over st joe, revenge factor for st joes and better guard play.....

Think the under and Bona go hand in hand. Like Bonaventure if they can slow the pace, I think they'll be able to do so. Doing that takes St. Joe's transition game outta the equation and the guard play. In terms of defensive style, St. Joe's don't force too many turnovers, again which should take away some of those up and down opportunities. Bona's weakness is turning the ball over, but if they're facing a team that doesn't force them, different story. Avoided it b/c of the revenge. 
cheeersM8 PM cheeersM8
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:35:52 PM
thanks!
TRAIN69 PM TRAIN69
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:38:30 PM
Awesome run bro

Any take on Flor A&M +10 vs Norfolk? KInda liking the points and the +450 ML




xbaggypants PM xbaggypants
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:38:53 PM
Blindly tailing them all again.
JEG53 PM JEG53
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:40:32 PM
You sucked in Dec.,lol Hell of a run your on,
GL today
fupm PM fupm
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:41:27 PM
nropp11 PM nropp11
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Posted: 3/9/2012 2:43:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Awesome run bro

Any take on Flor A&M +10 vs Norfolk? KInda liking the points and the +450 ML





I got nothing there. Not sure how Florida A&M comes off two snails and the OT game into a free for all up and down ugly style here. Saw Norfolk play ISU earlier in the year and watched em score 36 for the game. Haha.
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