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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Wednesday Early Hoops
nropp11
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nropp11
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#1
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:28:37 AM
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 24-14, +32.15
March Leans: 12-7


Uconn/WVU
First meeting this year only hit 61 possessions and came as West Virginia had just knocked off Georgetown at home and had to rebound in short rest on the road at Uconn. They actually held a 10 point lead with about 10 minutes remaining, before they went to an uncharacteristic slow style of play that bit them in the arse. With a ten point lead, they started to run clock off, they quit getting out in transition and didn’t take the best shot available when it came. This is a team that can’t really create shots off the dribble, and really a team that needs transition to score. Thus, I think Huggins realizes this. If you’re going to beat a team with size like Uconn, you need to get up and down the court with them. And if by chance you have a lead late, you need to continue to get up and down the court. Don’t become one dimensional in the half court, and from the first meeting, I think Huggy Bear realizes that. And I think it’s a nice spot. WVU played Marquette and Depaul both up and down, then went to snail South Florida, snuck out a victory in their lowest possession total of the year (outside of the two meetings with burn it up Notre Dame), so the eagerness to run here should show early and often. With Uconn, you certainly have concern playing the morning game two days in a row, especially after a nice shooting day yesterday, but they have no reason to slow this puppy up either. When you don’t have an advantage in the paint, then you have to look elsewhere in terms of advantages, and with Calhoun back on the bench, hopefully he can realize this as well. It also helps with the spot for Uconn as they come off a Depaul team who forces the tempo, so they should continue into that pace without any prep or rest time here as well. Uconn was in this exact spot last year, two early morning tips to start the tournament. They put up 97 on Depaul, then came a 79 against snail Pitt in the 2nd game, and a game that saw 141. Both teams crash the glass, WVU does attack if Uconn is to use a zone, and both teams don’t take all that great care of the ball in the half court which leads to extra opportunities in transition. You have a motivated WVU team with revenge feeling that Jones got snubbed for POY in the BE, against a Uconn team that is coming off do anything you want and high paced Depaul. While both teams look to use their interior within the offense against much smaller opponents, that’s simply not the case today. Both should run, and look to score early and often, and the extra opportunities of turnovers and offensive rebounds should push this one over the total. Also have a total that was lined at 138 earlier this year. WVU shot 32%, took 18 more shots, and only posted a point total of 57. Even more interesting is the fact that Uconn only had 5 offensive rebounds.  One last thing in terms of the game: Truck/Jones combo of being seniors certainly helps with offensive output, but more importantly here is that everyone on the court is just too terribly inexperienced. Bright Lights, Madison Square Guarden, don’t think these teams could try to slow the pace if they were forced to do so. 

5* Uconn/WVU Over 130

Will have other analysis shortly. Gonna be a full day.

GL
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#2
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:32:34 AM
Stay hot dude  BOL
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#3
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:34:48 AM
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#4
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:37:24 AM
Lol @ all these 'free site' spams ALWAYS on a 17-2 run
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#5
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:38:18 AM
gl nropp
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#6
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:39:35 AM
Great analysis as usual, thanks. Do you have any leans for a side in UCONN game?
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#7
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:49:35 AM
How high would you go on the over? My book jumped up to 132.5
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#8
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:50:09 AM
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#9
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:50:16 AM
Let's do it
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#10
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:51:10 AM
Changed twice as I was putting my bet in, jumped to 131.5, then 132.5. Any thoughts? I mean I'm sure it's still a play,but smaller?
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#11
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:51:19 AM
nice nropp. damn spam sites, im  2-7in my last plays and i dont charge anything
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#12
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:52:26 AM
i believe uconn's ft shooting will hinder them
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#13
Posted: 3/7/2012 11:57:24 AM

GL

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#14
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:00:14 PM
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#15
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:02:20 PM
just a suggestions to others who are following Nropp's picks but often come across a line that has jumped significantly. I usually just put these picks in a parlay together and buy as many points as I can or until it hits his line. Nothing worse than the 1/2 point push because you didn't get nropp's line. This way it is a smaller bet for 2-3-4 plays and in the end could be profitable if Nropp stays as hot as he is.

Also would like to say thanks for the time and effort you put into these things Nropp. Keep it up 
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nropp11
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#16
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:03:56 PM
If the line doesn't move more than a possession, I'm not worried. 
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Kaka123
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#17
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:06:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nropp11:

If the line doesn't move more than a possession, I'm not worried. 


So you only care if it moves by 2 or more points?
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wmi799
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#18
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:14:51 PM
Good luck Neil!
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#19
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:30:25 PM
In their first meeting, that was UConn who had 61 possessions correct? Thanks for all the great insight, GL today!
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#20
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:32:10 PM
crap, it's going to be close, wish i would have stayed away from this one
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#21
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:38:35 PM
We will probly need OT.  Wish I stayed away as well as I already had UCONN
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#22
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:40:29 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by rocketman88:

crap, it's going to be close, wish i would have stayed away from this one

Vagisil may help your condition!

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#23
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:40:38 PM
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#24
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:41:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by seantaylor21:

We will probly need OT.  Wish I stayed away as well as I already had UCONN

line is at 132 right now dude.  not sure you understand totals.
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#25
Posted: 3/7/2012 12:41:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by YACKER:

Vagisil may help your condition!

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