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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Sloop Monday
sloop703
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#1
Posted: 3/5/2012 11:54:24 AM
309-254-11

3-6 yesterday, and a forgettable weekend overall (10-11). So many awful mooses this weekend...I'll just leave it at that.

Had enough with Scott Wood. He didn't bring me much luck in February. Hello, T-Rob. 
Thomas Robinson is a wonderful player and person (uhh...except for the time he spit on a bouncer). Went through tremendous adversity to get where he is today, including losing both his grandparents and his mother last year in a span of 25 days. Basically had no father, and now does everything for his little sister. He is just a really motivated, hard-working, genuine, awesome dude through and through. And a monster baller. I really hope he wins POY and Kansas does work in the tournament. But Anthony Davis may singlehandedly prevent both of those things from happening...

TODAY:

Drexel Dragoooooons +2 (1.5 units)
Gonzaga -2 (b.5)
Fairfield -2
Miami OH +3


Lean: North Texas -1.5
Maybe another

I have a lot to say about this Drexel game, thoughts coming soon....
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sloop703
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#2
Posted: 3/5/2012 11:54:55 AM

Drexel +2:

It's impossible for me to believe that both Drexel and VCU don't go dancing this year; despite stronger competition in the league last year, the CAA is still a two-bid league, and the profile that these two teams have is hard to ignore...especially with such a soft bubble this year. Drexel and VCU both proved that yesterday but dismantling ODU and Mason; it's going to be a great game tonight, and I can't wait.

Anyway, on to the matchup. VCU caught a big, early lead on Mason yesterday (I think it was 34-4 or something), mostly due to forcing 8 turnovers in the first 8 minutes, and by gunning and pushing the tempo...and they never looked back. I wasn't really that impressed w/ Mason this year aside from Ryan Pearson, and I'm not a fan of Paul Hewitt's in-game coaching abilities. Until the 2nd half, Mason failed MISERABLY the slow the pace of that game down, put pressure on the perimeter, and just do a better job overall defensively. They were awful against Georgia State the night before w/ their perimeter defense, but it was acceptable due to Georgia State's inability to shoot the long ball well. Hurt them badly last night, and VCU knocked down 11 threes.

But yeah, in the 2nd half Mason started doing what they had to do: limiting turnovers, rebounding the basketball, and playing very aggressively on defense. Mason actually out-rebounded the rams 38-20, and that had a large part of their ability to come back. But the fact that Mason is #284 in the country at limiting turnovers, and VCU is #1 in the entire country at forcing them, was something that hurt them early and eventually kept them from cutting the lead. Drexel does not play sloppy basketball, they will not allow VCU to steal the ball, and

Drexel basically uses a 6-man rotation; they are going to slow the pace of this game down to a crawl. That’s especially true with Derrick Thomas being out, as his minutes will be severely missed, and Drexel is going to have to do it in order to keep from being worn down. Thomas isn’t all that important of a player from a scoring standpoint, but he’s still a glue guy on defense, and I’d obviously prefer him to be playing. But still, Drexel won’t let VCU score transition buckets like they did yesterday, as they rarely turn the ball over. I have a strong feeling that Drexel is going to control the pace of this game, despite any efforts that the Rams take to speed it up.

I think Drexel wins with their physicality; this team is so, so strong in the front court w/ Givens/McCoy/Ruffin, they rebound extremely well, they’re so good at getting to the line, and they are so efficient at converting second-shot opportunities. They do lack depth, but they still get double-digit point production from four players. Basically a one-and-done type of thing on defense, and they’re going to force to VCU to shoot extremely in order to win. Bruiser Flint is a fantastic coach, and this team has had their sights set on winning the conference tournament since the beginning of the season. Even without Thomas, and despite this game being in Richmond, Drexel has shown it has tremendous composure, this team is willing to grind out a game, close out a game, and adapt to a team’s style. Very experienced team that plays incredibly smart basketball, and I don’t understand why they’re catching points here. They’re just too big, too physical/aggressive, and too smart, I think they can and will beat VCU, and they will also win a game in the big dance. 

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#3
Posted: 3/5/2012 11:56:18 AM
GL BROTHER
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sloop703
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#4
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:15:12 PM
Miami OH +3

Quiz question: what is the MAC West's record against the MAC East this season?

The answer is 6-30. (Toledo plays in the MAC West; Miami plays MAC East. One of those 6 wins was when Toledo edged Miami and beat them on their home floor earlier this season by a bucket.)

Anyway, I think it's safe to say that Miami has underachieved this season, while Toledo has overachieved. This very young Toledo team (#319 in country in experience) was projected to finish last in the entire MAC, and Miami was projected to finish somewhere near middle-of-the-pack.

Miami returned 4 starters (including an all-star named Julian Mavunga) from a team that went 11-5 this season, yet somehow managed to only achieve a 5-11 record. A lot of that was due to their inability to win close games: 17 OF MIAMI'S 20 LOSSES CAME BY TEN OR LESS POINTS. They played the #26 most difficult non-conference schedule, and the #88 overall. What about Toledo? They played the #326 and #299 most difficult, respectively.

So tonight, an experienced Miami team gets new life. All those previous games go out the window, and they get a chance to beat a Toledo team that only has two wins against KenPom top-150 teams. These teams are similar in efficiency stats, (except for height...Miami is #34 in country at effective height, while Toledo is #301...surprisingly, this doesnt translate to better rebounding numbers for Miami, but it might tonight, as SOS will be important)...but yeah, I think strength of schedule proves to be the denominator tonight, and Miami team lives to see another day.
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#5
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:30:30 PM
any parlays sloop?
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#6
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:31:05 PM
Nice write ups Sloop..

I think Toledo will pull out the win though. The past 5 games they're 4-1 and they just had a pretty big victory vs Eastern Mich. on march 3rd. I understand they're a young team and all but it seems like right now they're the hottest they have been all season. I like Toledo -2....

GL Sloop
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#7
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:35:50 PM
I follow the MAAC pretty closely, and have watched these teams play quite a bit the past month. Fairfield is the better team overall, with more balance, chemistry, and talent. Loyola is going to really struggle to score tonight, as Fairfield is tough on defense, and they'll likely rely on offensive rebounds to get their points. I think if Fairfield can hold their own down low, they'll put up too many points, and they'll keep Loyola's shooting % down. This CBS Sports article pretty much summarizes the matchup better than I can:

The Fairfield Stags are why coaches love and hate conference tournaments. Seeded No. 4 in the MAAC, Fairfield underachieved for most of the season. It should have challenged Iona for the league title, but it was clear from about mid-January that Sydney Johnson's team wasn't just playing for second, it would struggle to get third. It wound up getting fourth.

It's a talented team not playing to its advantage in the regular season. Then it finds the switch, flicks it on, and now the NCAAs are a game away. It's a great thing when you're coaching that kind of team, but man do other coaches hate when this happens against them.

The reason the Stags are playing for the league bid to the NCAA tournament is because the team found its groove, relied on its superstar and defeated Iona Sunday afternoon in the MAAC semis. Rakim Sanders, who scored 27 for FU, is now the alpha. There is no question about it, that's why Fairfield's still around. What interesting is the way this happened, how the team came to look to and rely on Sanders. It was an accident. Starting guard Derek Needham was this team's leader in October. But Sanders is the most talented guy on the roster, someone who could be drafted in June. When Needham broke his foot and was ruled out for the season on Feb. 27, rightfully most expected Fairfield to reach the semis of the MAAC, tops, then give way to Iona.

Hasn't happened. Now it looks like the Stags are more focused with one undeniable leader on the floor. They looked like a different team in beating the Gaels the way they did. With this response, they get to face Jimmy Patsos' Loyola Greyhounds, the No. 2 seed. At 13-5, Loyola was one game better than Fairfield in the league. But the team's riding high because it won 20 games this season, and are you ready for this? It was the first time in the more-than-30-year history of Loyola in D-I that the program won 20 games. That's flabbergasting. 

Loyola's tough because they're great at offensive rebounds -- and they get to the line a lot. The team doesn't shoot well, but boy do they make up for it. They don't run, and neither does Fairfield. The Stags are a much better defensive team, and it's got the better player. Fairfield should probably win, but Patsos has been brewing magic in Maryland all season long. The teams split the season series. We could get another fantastic MAAC final on ESPN Monday night at 7 ET.
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#8
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:35:55 PM
Looks like the only place we potentially disagree is on Loyola-Fairfield.

Drexel would be a big play for me if not for the Thomas suspension. He's not the most important backcourt guy obviously, but it kills their depth. VCU is so good at wearing teams down and I'm a little concerned about potential fatigue. I'm on the Dragons though for pretty much all of the reasons you illustrated. They're a Philly rival, but Brusier is a former SJU player and I LOVE what he's with them this year.
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#9
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:38:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Freak0fNature:

Nice write ups Sloop..

I think Toledo will pull out the win though. The past 5 games they're 4-1 and they just had a pretty big victory vs Eastern Mich. on march 3rd. I understand they're a young team and all but it seems like right now they're the hottest they have been all season. I like Toledo -2....

GL Sloop

Very possible. GL sir.
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#10
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:47:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JFen31:

Looks like the only place we potentially disagree is on Loyola-Fairfield.

Drexel would be a big play for me if not for the Thomas suspension. He's not the most important backcourt guy obviously, but it kills their depth. VCU is so good at wearing teams down and I'm a little concerned about potential fatigue. I'm on the Dragons though for pretty much all of the reasons you illustrated. They're a Philly rival, but Brusier is a former SJU player and I LOVE what he's with them this year.

Yep, I think this is the game where Thomas is missed. Not even from a defensive standpoint, but just his minutes are what's important.  Smart's going to really challenge Drexel and try to speed this game up and wear Drexel down...It will be a very well-coached game, I can't wait...But Drexel's not just strong physically...just a lot of mental resiliency and heart in this team, I think they'll prevail regardless.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on Loyola. Email me if you have time, or post in your thread. If not, no worries. I don't like being on the other side of you on this one, considering you hit your biggest bet of the season yesterday on Loyola...
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#11
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:49:24 PM

no ML parlays today Sloop?

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sloop703
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#12
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:49:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by monkeymark5:

any parlays sloop?

nope. crappy lines today
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#13
Posted: 3/5/2012 12:58:20 PM
My first year watching/betting College basketball. Is this already tournament season or still regular season?
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sloop703
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#14
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:00:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:

My first year watching/betting College basketball. Is this already tournament season or still regular season?

regular season just finished; conference tournaments are this week. NCAA/NIT/CIT tournaments start next week.
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#15
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:05:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sloop703:


regular season just finished; conference tournaments are this week. NCAA/NIT/CIT tournaments start next week.


So are most of these teams playing this week unpredictable shitty teams while top teams start playing next week?
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sloop703
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#16
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:10:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:



So are most of these teams playing this week unpredictable shitty teams while top teams start playing next week?

no. today's games are pretty lame, but the rest of the week will be loaded with better games.
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#17
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:17:56 PM
bol sloop
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#18
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:23:46 PM
Love your take on Miami.... but what about Mavunga? He's ??? with the heel injury.

Sure would like to know if he's playing before risking anything here.
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#19
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:35:47 PM

If depth is an issue in the Drexel/VCU game, what about a 1H bet? Fatigue and foul trouble won't matter in the 1H like it might in the 2H.

Or are there other dynamics that deter you from a 1H play?

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#20
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:36:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rhodeislandreds:

Love your take on Miami.... but what about Mavunga? He's ??? with the heel injury.

Sure would like to know if he's playing before risking anything here.

damn, i had no idea of this. he is so important to their team. just read that he was in a boot yesterday. even if he does play, i still don't like the pick without him at full health. he's first team all MAC without a doubt. 

thanks for this info. greatly appreciated. probably buying off of this one, not worth the risk
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#21
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:36:51 PM
Miami school site has him in the probable starting lineup. Phew.
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#22
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:39:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:

If depth is an issue in the Drexel/VCU game, what about a 1H bet? Fatigue and foul trouble won't matter in the 1H like it might in the 2H.

Or are there other dynamics that deter you from a 1H play?



yeah, you might be right on this one. i just dont like playing 1st half bets. i feel like every time i pick a side for the first half, it doesnt cover, but my team eventually comes back and covers for the game. it just sucks when that happens, and as a basketball fan, it takes a little bit of the fun out of wagering on a team
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#23
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:40:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rhodeislandreds:

Miami school site has him in the probable starting lineup. Phew.

yeah, he'll probably start. this might be the last game of his college career, he's going to do anything he can to play. but this article makes it sound like he's still in a lot of pain

http://www.middletownjournal.com/middletown-sports/miami-university-redhawks/redhawks-open-mac-tourney-play-tonight-1338386.html
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#24
Posted: 3/5/2012 1:49:49 PM

I completely understand.  I recall plenty of times when I took 1H instead of FG, I lose the 1H and my team covers the FG anyway. 

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#25
Posted: 3/5/2012 2:19:12 PM
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